tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-112466742012-02-01T07:48:31.281-05:00AN OASIS IN A WORLD OF HACKS, HUSTLERS, AND HIRED SPINThe Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.comBlogger14261100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-36482531397409754272012-01-31T05:48:00.003-05:002012-01-31T06:03:51.223-05:00

From the transcript of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on January 31, 2006:"Needless to say, it’s fitting for Chairman Greenspan to leave office with the economy in such solid shape. And if I might torture a simile, I would say, Mr. Chairman, that the situation you’re handing off to your successor is a lot like a tennis racquet with a gigantic sweet spot." -Janet Yellen to Alan Greenspan.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-44880242704330092752012-01-13T07:57:00.004-05:002012-01-14T07:00:14.547-05:00

Yesterday the Federal Reserve released the transcripts of its 2006 Federal Open Market Committee meetings.I didn’t think I could be surprised at this point by these bubble-era artifacts, but there really is a lot of maddening stuff. Binyamin Appelbaum hits some of the main points here. The WSJ has a meeting-by-meeting analysis here. Take your blood pressure medication first.These transcripts are

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-4659441094084395952011-11-20T15:21:00.009-05:002011-11-20T18:41:32.087-05:00

I'm late on this, but in general I am sympathetic to OWS. And unlike some who claim otherwise, I think the goal is quite clear: to reverse a radical reordering of American society that has taken place in recent years (and in this sense OWS is essentially a conservative movement). I'm hesitant to give it an open-ended endorsement, because the nature of the movement makes it hard to predict the

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-53715133923507818032011-10-09T13:00:00.008-04:002011-10-09T13:16:03.230-04:00

"Low interest rates mean that people, for example, have got the capacity to refinance their home. And probably some of you all have done that. That's helped our economy. The Azels, who I met with today, Kelly and Dan -- by the way, he's got a scratch handicap. [Laughter]. I told him I needed a lesson or two. He said that they were able to take their first home -- they're newly wed, and the first

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-41515519400567552312011-08-18T19:46:00.016-04:002011-08-18T20:10:18.852-04:00

Rick Perry's comments this week about the Federal Reserve confirmed that the Fed has made itself a legitimate campaign topic, but there were signs in recent months, including this interesting entry from Bill Kristol, that Republicans as a party would start to co-opt this issue. They had ceded it to Ron Paul and a few others because Fed rate policy has meant an ongoing bailout of the financial

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-17676981460665416522011-08-13T21:22:00.011-04:002011-08-13T23:00:12.170-04:00

"In part, the recent weaker-than-expected economic performance appears to have been the result of several factors that are likely to be temporary...the most recent projections by members of the Federal Reserve Board and presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, prepared in conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in late June, reflected their assessment that the pace of the

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-37853452636104193842011-08-04T19:41:00.009-04:002011-08-04T20:52:08.197-04:00

The eyes of all were turned to the Reichsbank. The pressure exercised on it became more and more insistent and the increase of issues, from the central bank, appeared as a remedy.The authorities therefore had not the courage to resist the pressure of those who demanded ever greater quantities of paper money, and to face boldly the crisis which would be, undeniably, the result of a stoppage of the

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com34tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-32011926371003783862011-06-04T10:34:00.004-04:002011-06-04T12:25:02.248-04:00

Robert Wenzel (via TAC):Instead of long-term conservative planners ruling the roost, it is the Age of the Hustlers. An acquaintance of mine, a lawyer, with some friends, doctors and such, put together some money during the boom and bought huge vacation properties on the coastline of South Carolina. The properties are mostly intended as investment properties that are rented out by the week. After

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-80880111321832665422011-05-01T18:26:00.014-04:002011-05-01T20:13:34.354-04:00

I drove by the Cos Cob Gulf station (across from Dunkin Donuts) and noticed its price for regular was $4.29. That was a painful sight but after dropping off a shipment at Packages Plus and going back the other way – elapsed time, 7 minutes? – I saw that the price was now $4.41. Owie. -Blogger in ConnecticutSo the printing presses ran, and once they began to run, they were hard to stop. The price

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-29153997332080237692011-04-10T15:59:00.004-04:002011-04-10T16:19:40.394-04:00

A man who has been accustomed to rely on it [the value of the currency] cannot help feeling its degradation as his own. He has identified himself with it for too long and his confidence in it has been like his confidence in himself. Not only is everything visibly shaken during an inflation, nothing remaining certain or unchanged even for an hour, but also each man, as a person, becomes less.The

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-40837912610298194482011-03-09T04:45:00.039-05:002011-03-09T12:32:49.205-05:00

The Fed's Dennis Lockhart made some news this week:Fed's Lockhart: Oil shock could lead to QE3If oil prices continue to climb, it could force the Federal Reserve to make a new round of asset purchases, according to Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart.Appearing at the National Association of Business Economics in Arlington, Va., Lockhart said that while he doesn't think additional purchases are

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-85274971322327899622011-03-09T00:33:00.058-05:002011-03-09T05:59:09.568-05:00

John Taylor gets his Marshall McLuhan on. This situation might be almost as amusing as the theater line scene in the film, except we just learned that the largest monetary experiment in history is based at least partly on a flawed understanding of a fundamental policy rule.As the consequences of this incompetence and zealotry hit the public at the gas pump and grocery store, one wonders how much

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-67150514110037979012011-02-12T09:50:00.003-05:002011-02-12T17:32:37.854-05:00

I had an overwhelming desire to have been strolling through Cairo last night with a pretty Egyptian lass as my guide. Didn't happen, so a few armchair comments:1. As an admittedly lay observer, I was struck by the strength of Egypt's basic social fabric. Egyptians as a whole seem highly educated, informed, and tech-savvy. Combine this with an apparently innate or at least newfound national

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-5959444502240289532011-02-03T14:27:00.043-05:002011-02-03T17:25:21.951-05:00

So I've been watching Al Jazeera's streaming coverage of Egypt, and reading posts like this and scary reports like this:Fed's Hoenig says QE3 "may get discussed"The Federal Reserve could debate extending its bond-buying program beyond June if U.S. economic data prove weaker than policymakers expect, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig said.Another round of bond buying "may get discussed" if

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-6335726056552439202011-01-13T17:05:00.024-05:002011-01-13T18:02:40.759-05:00

The opening chapter of Tom Friedman's next book. Note the Homeland Security-scripted announcement on the loudspeaker in the video...perfect in more ways than one.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-87917282194373302842011-01-10T07:24:00.002-05:002011-01-10T08:45:57.850-05:00

Part of an email in response to my last post:As of right now it doesn't look like the suspect was inspired by any single political figure or media personality or even had any coherent political philosophy. So some nut runs amok and its time for restrictions on political speech?If I posted on this blog a map of the U.S. with crosshairs over the home districts of members of Congress -- and used the

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-85720603376409519812011-01-09T11:26:00.003-05:002011-01-09T13:46:30.120-05:00

Barry:This would be as good a time as any that we as a nation to consider the base level of discourse that passes for political debate in this country.It used to be merely embarrassing, now its crossed a line in creating danger.Perhaps its time to point a finger at the people who have poisoned the well of discourse in this country — the usual suspects who find it both politically advantageous and

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-46737940204778724882011-01-03T01:26:00.022-05:002011-01-03T09:52:13.527-05:00

Recent report from Bloomberg:The Huffington Post, the news site that began in 2005, will post its first annual profit this year...The site has grown to more than 26 million unique monthly visitors...[It] aims to more than triple its sales to $100 million in 2012 from $30 million this year, according to a person close to the company who declined to be identified."With such positive momentum,

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-53995855365271583932010-12-28T12:53:00.045-05:002010-12-28T19:04:42.945-05:00

Two weeks ago I made a deposit into my checking account. When it didn't show up in my account after a few days, I called the bank. They said they had no record of the transaction and told me to bring the deposit slip to a branch office. I got the feeling that if I didn't have the slip, the money would have been gone. Last week I noticed that my cell phone bill was higher than normal (it's been

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-49066168125954041122010-12-15T05:00:00.026-05:002010-12-15T06:22:11.600-05:00

There have been some good retrospectives during the past few days. The best have been from a personal perspective, and here is one worth reading. Something I haven't seen mentioned anywhere is the importance to Holbrooke of his favorite getaway: Telluride, Colorado. He called the tiny mountain town his "sanctuary." His family is an integral part of the community, and I have seen firsthand the

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-52436065979506297152010-12-12T15:16:00.005-05:002010-12-12T15:25:07.378-05:00

Last week it was announced that Ron Paul will chair the House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy, which oversees the Fed. This is good news. Since the elections in November, I'd been wondering how many more politicians were willing to sacrifice themselves and/or their party by protecting the status quo as represented by Bernanke and the Fed. Boehner wasn't willing to risk it, even though

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-6971143191041455892010-11-26T14:31:00.018-05:002010-11-26T15:06:40.773-05:00

Via DB:"Where would the world be if Americans did not live out their proclivity to consume everything that looks good, feels good, sounds good, tastes good? We provide a service for the rest of the world. If we were running a current account surplus or trade surplus, what would happen to economic growth worldwide and what would be the economic consequences? So I think we are doing our duty there.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-66237712877199074252010-11-16T14:32:00.016-05:002010-11-16T15:16:26.812-05:00

When videos about arcane monetary issues start to compete for pageviews with porn and cool pet tricks, you know something is happening out there. With Sarah Palin astutely jumping on the bandwagon and even the Fed's sacred dual mandate now getting much-needed debate, things look to get very interesting. Get the popcorn ready.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-80681074769272741612010-11-15T01:12:00.018-05:002010-11-15T01:58:31.445-05:00

From the Senate Banking Committee hearing to confirm Bernanke as Greenspan's successor, November 15, 2005:SENATOR SARBANES: Warren Buffett has warned us that derivatives are time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system. The Financial Times has said so far, there has been no explosion, but the risks of this fast growing market remain real. How do you respond to these

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-91301005988587122022010-11-03T01:55:00.056-04:002010-11-03T13:41:58.277-04:00

This Bloomberg article outlines what might be the best part of Tuesday's electoral results.During the past few days I've spent some time gauging sentiment on the message boards of sites like Huffington Post and Daily Kos. It's impossible to miss posts about the bailouts, Geithner, Summers, Bernanke, the absence of perp walks, and what many see as the lack of real financial reform. On the day

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-1487000136883970602010-10-02T12:24:00.021-04:002010-10-02T20:58:37.902-04:00

For those not familiar with Vincent Reinhart, he is a well-regarded former senior Fed official. He worked closely with Ben Bernanke; in early 2004, the two presented this important paper in which they wrote, “There seems to be little reason for central banks to avoid bringing the policy rate close to zero if the economic situation warranted.”Reinhart recently wrote this interesting article about

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-68917151284765524902010-09-22T07:11:00.016-04:002010-09-22T09:01:27.965-04:00

Somewhere along the way it became a precept of the society of copy editors: Larry Summers shall not be mentioned in any news report without the word "brilliant" in the same sentence. But this a profoundly overrated policymaker who never should have been part of an administration that came into office with a mandate for change and economic revival. This becomes a bit hard to pull off,

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-87004422283928038882010-09-21T04:01:00.012-04:002010-09-21T04:13:08.949-04:00

For those interested in the subject, here is some good perspective on recent currency market headlines from someone who's been there.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-13315161769943103922010-09-16T08:00:00.021-04:002010-09-16T08:45:08.692-04:00

Alan Greenspan spoke yesterday at the Council on Foreign Relations:“Fiat money has no place to go but gold,” the former Fed chairman said at the Council, according to economist David Malpass, who quotes Mr. Greenspan in one of Mr. Malpass’ emails on the political economy. Mr. Malpass writes that the former chairman of the Federal Reserve’s board of governors was responding to a question in

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-54185734862258905372010-09-14T01:54:00.012-04:002010-09-14T12:18:00.982-04:00

Now and then.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-72910276475228371192010-08-30T00:10:00.004-04:002010-08-30T00:20:17.070-04:00

The eyes of all were turned to the Reichsbank. The pressure exercised on it became more and more insistent and the increase of issues, from the central bank, appeared as a remedy.The authorities therefore had not the courage to resist the pressure of those who demanded ever greater quantities of paper money, and to face boldly the crisis which...would be, undeniably, the result of a stoppage of

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-63541682420749702622010-08-29T11:38:00.002-04:002010-08-29T11:40:25.833-04:00

We still have a few months to go, but this moronic cover looks unbeatable. This is what happens when straight news and analysis devolve into editorializing and cheerleading.Maybe the price was about right.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-18982280900022547462010-08-27T09:20:00.006-04:002010-08-27T09:35:31.071-04:00

Jon Hilsenrath had an important article earlier this week about dissent in the Fed's ranks:Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Minneapolis Fed, argued that a large part of today's unemployment problem is caused by issues the Fed can't solve, such as the mismatch between the skills of jobless workers and the skills that employers wanted. "The Fed does not have a means to transform construction

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-57986437771475868452010-08-24T08:24:00.015-04:002010-08-24T09:59:40.060-04:00

Here's a good recap of a meeting that top Treasury officials held with a group of bloggers. Because of Geithner's unpopularity, it can be easy to forget that these are real people working on tough problems.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-89758914210000740692010-08-01T15:15:00.006-04:002010-08-01T16:22:44.541-04:00

I first wrote a few years ago about small but noticeable changes in New York City's quality of life, and I speculated that they might mark the reversal of a decades-long trend. For anyone who takes the trains, reads the almost-daily newspaper reports about the latest service cutbacks, or simply walks the streets, this reversal has become obvious. I've lived in or near Manhattan for most of the

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-17137791917085528072010-07-28T14:17:00.002-04:002010-07-28T14:31:05.031-04:00

Where's a dour Bavarian bureaucrat when you need one?In Bavaria...the state government made gluttony a criminal offence. Anyone seen eating in a manner likely to cause the hungry to riot could be fined 100,000 marks.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-82440624335924961692010-07-28T12:34:00.012-04:002010-07-28T13:03:13.309-04:00

Before July is over..."Adequately capitalized” and “in no danger of failing.”-Ben Bernanke on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, July 16, 2008, less than two months before they were placed into conservatorship. "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime."-Hank Paulson, July 12, 2007"It's a safe banking system, a sound banking system. Our regulators are on top of

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-58272285049211833582010-07-28T10:20:00.003-04:002010-07-28T10:28:05.216-04:00

Here.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-24800945072989008422010-07-26T07:46:00.005-04:002010-07-26T07:54:41.412-04:00

Signposts on the road to economic -- and eventually national -- madness: mainstream, apparently reasonable market commentators are now openly calling for the government to artificially boost the stock market, without any concern for the practical and moral implications I outlined here. Maybe the only problem here is being behind the curve; many in the trading and asset management community

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-44475953079669154992010-07-24T11:25:00.017-04:002010-07-24T11:51:11.543-04:00

That about sums up what I think when I read these increasingly frequent reports. More here. It's beyond belief that we've gotten ourselves into this type of ruinous, senseless quagmire again. I guess we really do have to relearn this lesson every few decades.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-24549519118020419222010-07-15T05:43:00.022-04:002010-07-15T06:22:37.044-04:00

Post report, U.S. embassy in Kabul, July 2010:What are the special advantages of living in this city/country? If you work for the U.S. Embassy, it's possible to save a lot of money, what with hazard pay, post differential, etc. Lots of leave time (up to 65 days/year) is another perk. Plus, telling people that you live in Afghanistan is a real ice breaker/conversation stopper!What is the air

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-10511174316048076282010-07-13T08:00:00.032-04:002010-07-13T09:19:27.787-04:00

Over the past few days, this blog has had a huge surge in visitors coming from Google searches for Adam Fergusson's 1975 book. I didn't know why until I read this. More here.Longtime readers know I've commented on the once-obscure book many times over the years. TAC was early on it as well, and even tracked down Fergusson in London (see this article in the 2/9/09 issue).A new paperback version

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com25tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-43207130697723476112010-07-13T06:11:00.025-04:002010-07-13T07:37:49.885-04:00

Here's a good article by Thomas DiLorenzo in the August 1 issue of TAC on the connection between monetary policy and militarism/war. It's good context for this photo. With spending issues getting more public attention and starting to create a wedge among Democrats, the Fed as suprapolitical (and extra-democratic) fiscal enabler will become even more of a factor.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-48720794040918498442010-07-06T03:28:00.004-04:002010-07-06T21:05:32.980-04:00

I enjoy a good social ritual as much as anyone. And as an excuse for teeth-gnashing or a symbol of some deeper national issue, this event is almost a cliche. But in this economy and with a record number of people surviving on food stamps, the hype around it seemed a bit incongruous -- and, frankly, pretty tacky. It was one of the most-viewed news stories on a weekend that marked the country's

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-17603835974836107692010-07-05T14:29:00.036-04:002010-07-06T04:54:43.897-04:00

A couple of reader comments on my last post:Actually everyone should tune in to the MSM. You can understand exactly what is going on by only believing in the opposite of what their propaganda spin is. The more they howl...the more you know what not to believe.Actually, during the last two decades of the Soviet bloc's existence, people did start tuning in to the televised news programs to get a

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-49464706303877419852010-07-04T02:04:00.027-04:002010-07-04T03:48:53.531-04:00

Barry wasn't ready in April to call this magazine cover a classic contrary indicator. As I posted at the time, I thought the cover was ridiculous. The date on it is April 19. The Dow topped five trading days later, and has fallen over 1,500 points since then. During the past decade a pliant national news media has utterly failed on two major stories of our time: Iraq/WMD and the credit/housing

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-9743066807911292142010-06-22T08:18:00.000-04:002010-06-22T08:20:34.224-04:00

The New York Post's John Crudele has a column today about my previous post. Watch this story...

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-88050915805167989872010-06-15T08:45:00.006-04:002010-06-15T14:07:53.394-04:00

Regular readers know I've written before about the possibility of government intervention in the stock market. I'll explain shortly why this issue just became more urgent. For now, here are some of the reasons this matters. The details of any intervention would determine the degree to which these apply, but conceptually these are the main implications:1. It would reward the speculator class at

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-90978180068931625292010-06-07T14:38:00.021-04:002010-06-07T15:57:24.155-04:00

Not much to disagree with here. The derangement is such that I've been half-expecting Israel or its defenders to offer that this was only the first American killed by Israel since 1967.While the underlying issues are obviously complicated, there's a fine line between Moshe Dayan's "mad dog" and one that's gone rabid. That the latter has appointed itself president and sole member of the region's

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-75800819763629093452010-06-07T14:10:00.009-04:002010-06-07T14:33:34.248-04:00

From a prime retail area in Manhattan:To see how the same storefront window looked two months ago, go here.When mere survival calls for a celebratory sale...

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-17236905195887451412010-06-01T12:17:00.000-04:002010-06-01T12:18:20.658-04:00

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-53210280310005207082010-05-15T04:05:00.011-04:002010-05-15T04:43:50.540-04:00

Here's a great article by John Podhoretz about Manhattan's Upper West Side in the 1960s and 1970s. I learned a lot from it. Walking those streets today, it's hard to imagine the scenes and events Podhoretz describes.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-702116043011790452010-05-11T03:43:00.050-04:002010-05-11T08:39:46.359-04:00

It appears the Bernie Sanders amendment to audit the Federal Reserve will get a vote in the Senate today. There may also be a vote on a more stringent amendment introduced by David Vitter, which mirrors the original Paul-Grayson bill in the House. Vitter introduced his version late last week after Sanders appeared to water down his amendment in various ways. It's true that the current Sanders

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-57211410430970216452010-05-10T05:40:00.019-04:002010-05-10T09:54:26.330-04:00

The bailouts of Greece, EU debtors and European banks will be financed by European savers, especially in Germany (and to a lesser degree by U.S. savers). While the short term benefits are obvious, it's incredible that German leaders in particular have put their country in this position despite the history that's deeply ingrained in the national consciousness -- though I suppose some will argue

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-61185271442047149912010-05-08T04:52:00.027-04:002010-05-08T06:12:32.439-04:00

If you want to hear what it sounds like when you combine years of regulatory failure on market structure issues with a profoundly irresponsible monetary policy of permanent bubbles and zero interest rates, listen to this tape of trading in the S&P pit during last week's market crash (via ZH). Having been a market maker on one of the Street's largest trading floors, it sounded a little too

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-80036532266708598232010-05-05T08:04:00.009-04:002010-05-05T08:22:09.609-04:00

Yesterday I received a short email from an apparent Senate staffer. I don't know if the email is legit. It came from a personal account, but contained enough detail for me to judge the substance worthy of at least passing along. The emailer said that his office has been pressured to oppose the Fed audit to a degree that his boss considers unprecedented and highly inappropriate. I'll see if I can

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-12242721326717206602010-05-04T14:19:00.008-04:002010-05-04T14:59:20.437-04:00

Bob Bennett and Orrin Hatch are in deep trouble in Utah, with Bennett about to be defeated. Here's what their constituents are focused on. Note that the main question wasn't about immigration or healthcare reform. To see how Bennett and Hatch voted on a related issue, go to the bottom of this post.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-35641117741840765002010-05-03T06:39:00.008-04:002010-05-03T08:15:31.596-04:00

It's on:Obama administration officials have declined to weigh in on specific amendments to the financial reform bill, with one exception: Sanders' move to audit the Federal Reserve. Fed and administration officials have signaled they would fight to stop it at all costs. This is getting weird. Has this administration ever thrown down a similar gauntlet on anything else -- including healthcare

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-18002354887239455852010-05-02T06:27:00.011-04:002010-05-02T07:12:25.172-04:00

Without explaining the months-long delay -- something Congress should examine -- the Federal Reserve on Friday finally released the transcripts of its rate-setting meetings in 2004. The link is here. I've read about half of the transcripts, paying particular attention to the comments of Greenspan, Bernanke, Geithner and Yellen. There's some pretty damning stuff, some of which is directly relevant

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-55604766506350552812010-04-27T15:53:00.000-04:002010-04-27T15:55:25.394-04:00

In lieu of a longer post for now, I encourage readers who missed today's testimony of current and former Goldman Sachs executives in front of the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations to watch a tape of it. This was a seminal event with political and social ramifications far beyond the sometimes arcane subject matter. For those who understand those ramifications and their dangers, the highest

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-34350415252029730652010-04-20T14:13:00.000-04:002010-04-20T14:18:25.215-04:00

As this period of economic and especially monetary consequences continues, and as the culpability for the next round of consequences threatens to become obvious, expect more stories like this to magically pop up. Remember, 2008 featured Bear Stearns, a plunging dollar, $150 oil and, we know now, this. More soon.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-50212314717775525192010-04-19T10:20:00.002-04:002010-04-19T10:26:10.832-04:00

SARBANES: Warren Buffett has warned us that derivatives are time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system. The Financial Times has said so far, there has been no explosion, but the risks of this fast growing market remain real. How do you respond to these concerns?BERNANKE: I am more sanguine about derivatives than the position you have just suggested. I think,

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-75252595498223501252010-04-18T02:15:00.025-04:002010-04-18T06:48:38.316-04:00

If you need any more evidence that the stock market has become the most important barometer and determinant of public psychology -- with the Fed as Keeper of the Flame of National Purpose -- see this Newsweek cover. I wonder how well it's selling anywhere in this country that's west of Grand Central Station. If the Dow was at 9000 instead of 11000, and most of the current economic and sentiment

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-12470448805011326712010-04-16T14:07:00.003-04:002010-04-16T14:29:21.285-04:00

I've written before about the myth of Wall Street genius, how it is propagated by starry-eyed journalists, and why debunking it is important for effective financial reform. From page 7 of today's SEC complaint against Goldman Sachs and one of its executives, Fabrice Tourre:At the same time, GS&Co recognized that market conditions were presenting challenges to the successful marketing of CDO

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-75673862141677938702010-04-11T12:02:00.024-04:002010-04-11T14:11:45.554-04:00

A few weeks ago I posted about the Fed's failure to release transcripts of its 2004 FOMC meetings (these are supposed to be made public after five years, which means they should have been released over three months ago). Here's an entry from this blog's visitor log:Federal Reserve Board (132.200.32.xx) Washington, District Of Columbia, United Stateswww.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-356257971079428062010-04-07T14:28:00.001-04:002010-04-07T22:58:34.368-04:00

These revelations about Citigroup (and Robert Rubin in particular) speak for themselves. As for the execrable Alan Greenspan, if there was any accountability for unelected policymakers he would be facing a nonfeasance prosecution right now instead of penning op-eds. At least John Law had the decency to slink off to some dank Venice gambling hall.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-12581908847241337512010-04-04T13:51:00.005-04:002010-04-04T13:59:54.061-04:00

While the house flippers return, the national media runs stories on daytraders, $20 million houses get scooped up in Greenwich, commuters are again dropping $200 on helicopter rides to Manhattan, oil winks at $90, and yet another asset bubble (stocks) builds....the Fed promises to stay at zero indefinitely.Compared to the last round of exuberance, this one might have a few extra twists. More soon.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-85668705879197451432010-03-28T13:54:00.005-04:002010-03-28T14:16:00.277-04:00

"The impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained."-Ben Bernanke in congressional testimony, 3/28/07

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-1687950091199639352010-03-23T06:53:00.001-04:002010-03-23T06:59:49.385-04:00

While the healthcare reform bill isn't perfect, the status quo is untenable. Something had to be done, and Republicans were clearly unserious about any type of reform. That said, a few points:1. Healthcare reform has been a wonderful lesson in consequences. If you spend eight years supporting policies that run the country into the ground, you cannot reasonably expect to escape electoral

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-90651290349926868372010-03-21T09:56:00.004-04:002010-03-21T10:03:06.709-04:00

As part of a campaign to fend off an urgently-needed audit, Ben Bernanke and his colleagues protest that the Fed is already the most open and communicative central bank in the world. To bolster the case, Bernanke has pointed to the policy of releasing verbatim transcripts of FOMC meetings. These transcripts are supposed to be made public with a five-year lag. From the Fed's website:Are minutes

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com35tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-51808461080539174542010-03-17T17:22:00.004-04:002010-03-17T17:44:05.878-04:00

I know some readers have this blog on their RSS feeds, but it appears that many others do not. Instead of checking in here daily during periods of light posting, you can save time by using an RSS reader that alerts you to a new post. If you're not very web savvy, do a search for "RSS reader." It's easy to set up.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com146tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-47607616208563070632010-03-12T01:20:00.027-05:002010-03-12T04:27:48.057-05:00

Obama renominated Bernanke, so no surprise here: President Barack Obama plans to nominate Janet Yellen as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, a person familiar with the matter said.Ms. Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco since 2004, has been a strong supporter of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's policies to fight the deep economic downturn.One of the more dovish

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-74773796823615516022010-03-10T00:01:00.002-05:002010-03-10T00:11:54.639-05:00

I've always been interested in the performance and basic functioning of financial markets during times of extreme systemic stress: man-made or natural disasters, hyperinflation, revolution, and war. Lately I've been reading about what happened to France's stock market during the Nazi occupation. Here's a good paper on this. It explores the conflict between Nazi hatred of financial speculation and

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-17156124507306861952010-03-04T04:23:00.017-05:002010-03-04T06:15:45.785-05:00

Meet your regulatory representatives here. This story may be a bit of an outlier, but it's a good indication of the general level of motivation and incentives at financial regulatory entities (remember, the linked story is about an SEC supervisor). Ben Bernanke insists the financial crisis was caused not by bad monetary policy, but by regulatory failure. Part of his solution: more regulators.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-73141592080903155672010-02-28T11:05:00.004-05:002010-02-28T11:19:07.026-05:00

Short version of this news story: a bakery in small-town Colorado recently burned down. Via political connections, the bakery's owner got a private audience with Obama, told him what happened, and asked about a possible bailout.Government encouraging and subsidizing bad choices isn't a new issue. But we're starting to see the cascading effects of bailouts as national policy. Policy creates

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-58994624107937305152010-02-24T01:30:00.010-05:002010-02-24T02:11:50.627-05:00

"I'm seeing a series of ideas suggested involving major government intervention in the housing market, and these things are usually presented or sold as a way of helping homeowners stay in their homes. Then, when you look at them more carefully, what they really amount to is a bailout for financial institutions or Wall Street." -Hank Paulson, February 28, 2008"The housing market has been very

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-92066243937720743682010-02-21T18:34:00.003-05:002010-02-21T22:39:18.834-05:00

I don't understand your problem with the Tea party. You have complained for a long time about how the system is broken, and now here is a real alternative AND one that is in sync with what you write about economics and the financial system especially the Federal Reserve. But you seem to reject it because of minor points about how the Tea party started. If the issues you write about are really

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com23tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-32009349781303848932010-02-19T03:04:00.004-05:002010-02-19T04:07:20.079-05:00

I've written many times that because of inaction on financial reform and support of a bailout-related status quo that includes Bernanke and Geithner, Obama courts both electoral disaster and social unrest. A few weeks ago I posted:If denying a furious public some scalps and going to the wall for a failed Bush appointee amplifies the impact of broader legislative impotence and provides an opening

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-29684942915885173482010-02-18T11:09:00.002-05:002010-02-18T12:14:56.082-05:00

As CPAC gets underway, it's no secret that the Tea Party movement is a mess of contradictions and ideological incoherence. This has been the case from its beginning, which was rooted in two hypocrisies: motivation synchronized solely with Inauguration Day 2009, and action catalyzed by a historically evocative slogan that came from the East Coast "media elite." Important issues like the bailouts

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-72277344293066164272010-02-14T14:36:00.000-05:002010-02-14T14:37:14.337-05:00

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-41173558675666561972010-01-29T09:37:00.003-05:002010-01-29T09:48:47.524-05:00

We know now there is nothing one can do to be judged unfit to run monetary policy in this country. You can take the economy to the brink of another Depression or even over it, but as long as you write a big enough check on the public's dime you will be praised for "bold action." It's appropriate that Bernanke came from a university: he's never lost tenure.During the past 30 years there have been

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com131tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-35643499304981157452010-01-27T12:42:00.030-05:002010-01-27T14:59:37.142-05:00

To those who are passionate about healthcare reform and despondent about its current status, it must seem odd that 1) Obama apparently has been willing to get more involved personally in saving his nomination for Fed chairman than in saving healthcare, and 2) Harry Reid and Senate Democrats have a newfound mastery of Washington's pesky procedural impediments.During the past few weeks, even some

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-11146635663353269682010-01-25T01:13:00.031-05:002010-01-25T11:53:52.176-05:00

Meet your regulatory representatives here. A vote for Bernanke is a retroactive, present, and future endorsement of this conduct. It's also stupid, since there's chatter that the worst revelations are still to come.An interesting part of the article:The SEC, according to an email sent by a New York Fed lawyer on January 13, 2009, agreed to limit the number of SEC employees who would review the

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-24352871000443142342010-01-24T19:59:00.008-05:002010-01-24T22:08:29.738-05:00

During the past few days, the Fed's defenders have been out in force with contemptible predictions of financial armageddon if the Senate fails to confirm Bernanke. One of the associated talking points is that Bernanke needs to stay in order to turn back political encroachment on the Fed's "independence." The WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath shows why this is specious (my bolds):No matter how it plays out,

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-6639838968330385172010-01-21T20:41:00.021-05:002010-01-22T00:12:53.055-05:00

Earlier on Thursday, I heard from a DC contact about some strange rumblings on the Bernanke nomination. Then late in the afternoon, this from Roll Call:Ben Bernanke’s nomination to serve a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve appears to be in peril. Bernanke is up for a second term at the Fed; his current term expires in 10 days on Jan. 31. A handful of Senators had previously

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-71432747671206877672010-01-20T02:13:00.022-05:002010-01-20T06:03:07.388-05:00

At least they got the postmortem right:A top pollster to Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley told HuffPost on Tuesday that the White House, in attempting to blame the Coakley campaign for a potential defeat today in Massachusetts, underestimates the wave of populist fury among Massachusetts voters.Pollster Celinda Lake said Coakley was hampered by the failure of the White House and

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-27332984357156222492010-01-20T00:39:00.020-05:002010-01-20T04:06:21.678-05:00

This blog gets lots of visitors from the Fed and Treasury. But I found this entry in the site's log sort of interesting:Federal Reserve Board (132.200.xx.xx)Washington, District Of Columbia, United States 20th January 2010 00:22:01 www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&tbo=1&num=100&tbs=cdr%3A1%2Ccd_min%3A1%2F1%2F2010%2Ccd_max%3A1%2F20%2F2010&q=bernanke

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-37709282615131460402010-01-19T22:32:00.010-05:002010-01-19T23:10:03.824-05:00

Read this for how things could play out in the next few days. Assuming Democrats don't learn anything from the Coakley disaster and they continue the self-immolation by pushing through a floor vote on the nomination, this blog will break that vote down into two categories: Voted for Change, and Complicit in the Status Quo. Check back to see which category your senator falls into. If you don't

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-43932800304840472322010-01-14T06:10:00.027-05:002010-01-14T07:10:27.571-05:00

Whenever I hear specious protests about Federal Reserve "independence" I think about this photo, taken almost exactly one year after the 2004 election:This is one of those pictures you can just stare at. In many ways it sums up an entire era.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-18709372716499812522010-01-10T07:12:00.000-05:002010-01-10T07:17:15.793-05:00

This jibes with what I'm hearing. Most readers here who have no connection to the financial industry would be shocked if they knew how much of a bonus many mid to upper level employees will get for 2009: high six figures to mid seven figures, even at firms that until recently were on the public dole.I've been getting some comments and emails about my dissatisfaction with Obama. Of course it's not

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-2945893364204310712010-01-08T09:14:00.034-05:002010-01-08T13:19:20.473-05:00

We're back to hollow, inconsequential claims of "accepting responsibility." The Change President? How about a new nickname, maybe the Plus Ca Change President. Or the Spare Change President. Status QuObama.There's a not-so-fine line between a reassuring sense of calm and a tone-deaf lethargy. As Stiglitz notes, "no drama" can be a liability as well as an asset. It looked great when McCain was

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-1502081137468997242010-01-06T03:42:00.024-05:002010-01-06T06:01:42.250-05:00

A respected mainstream analyst takes the debate up a notch. You don't need a custom-fitted Reynolds Wrap chapeau to suspect that this is one reason Bernanke and the Fed are so desperate to avoid a full audit. The next step is to demand answers, in writing and in person, to the questions at the end of my previous post.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-78566644419343998402010-01-05T02:17:00.006-05:002010-01-07T18:37:45.773-05:00

Recap: Before Ben Bernanke's confirmation hearing by the Senate Banking Committee, I posted this list of questions to ask him. After the hearing, Sen. Jim Bunning submitted my questions in writing to Bernanke, along with many of his own. The full set of questions and answers is here. Bernanke failed to respond completely to this question of mine (page 25):Before the financial crisis there was a

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-71709585333229944402010-01-02T06:51:00.006-05:002010-01-02T08:10:59.774-05:00

David Brooks has a strikingly breezy column on the Nigerian bomber:Now we seem to expect perfection from government and then throw temper tantrums when it is not achieved. We seem to be in the position of young adolescents — who believe mommy and daddy can take care of everything, and then grow angry and cynical when it becomes clear they can’t. ...[W]e shouldn’t imagine that these centralized

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-55270277357840900062009-12-30T01:42:00.034-05:002009-12-30T17:42:08.632-05:00

This is so maddening it's hard to write coherently about it. If you're wondering whether anyone will be fired for this, or why Napolitano has not resigned yet, or where Dennis Blair is, or Panetta, this should tell you:"It's becoming clear that the system that's been in place for years now is not sufficiently up to date to take full advantage of the information we collect and the knowledge we

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com29tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-90034509582593062752009-12-22T03:32:00.013-05:002009-12-22T04:41:21.265-05:00

Readers here will recognize the subject of John Crudele's latest column. If not, see question 15 on this list.I've already noted briefly that Bernanke's answer doesn't cut it (and I owe another post on this) and Crudele explains why. This is a critical issue for many reasons, and Bernanke's conspicuously incomplete response begs for some congressional follow-up.More on this soon.

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-77208520737220324942009-12-19T12:39:00.008-05:002009-12-19T14:56:21.895-05:00

Barry Ritholtz:The political buzz today is all about the President’s falling approval ratings. He has now fallen faster than President Bush did (prior to 09/11).The simple solution for the White House: Stop jerking around with Financial Reform. When there is high unemployment, people don’t want to see bailed out bankers making a killing. Fix what was wrong with the system, what led us down the

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com29tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-30069884840778579292009-12-17T12:32:00.008-05:002009-12-17T15:36:16.880-05:00

Today, the Senate Banking Committee voted 16-7 to confirm Bernanke for another term. The nomination now goes to the Senate floor. Because of significant opposition, including the holds that several senators have put on the nomination, it's unclear when a vote will take place. The vote today was notable, both for the sheer number of "no" votes and for the way some individual senators voted. One

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-6279459740407752402009-12-15T17:00:00.005-05:002009-12-16T07:47:24.191-05:00

Before Ben Bernanke's hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee on December 3, I posted this list of 15 questions for him. I've learned that after the hearing, Senator Bunning submitted most of them in writing to Bernanke. For Bernanke's responses, open the PDF file at the bottom of this page on Senator Bunning's website. In addition to my questions, the senator asked many of his own,

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11246674.post-28812900735967639102009-12-12T15:43:00.002-05:002009-12-13T11:28:27.611-05:00

To the extent there's a type of person most likely to be on Facebook, I'm probably not it. But I'm an alumni agent for one of my schools, and it seemed like a good way to keep in touch with former classmates and organize reunions that the school has every few years. In no way was I curious about former flings. So a couple of months ago I created a Facebook account.School reunions are fun, but

The Cunning Realistnoreply@blogger.com22