Tuesday, June 17, 2008

From The Frying Pan To The Fire

Ludwig von Mises in The Theory of Money and Credit (my bolds):

In normal times, that is in periods in which the government does not tamper with the monetary standard, people do not bother about monetary problems. Quite naively they take it for granted that the monetary unit's purchasing power is "stable." They pay attention to changes occurring in the money prices of the various commodities. They know very well that the exchange ratios between different commodities vary. But they are not conscious of the fact that the exchange ratio between money on the one side and all commodities and services on the other side is variable too. When the inevitable consequences of inflation appear and prices soar, they think that commodities are becoming dearer and fail to see that money is getting cheaper. In the early stages of an inflation only a few people discern what is going on, manage their business affairs in accordance with this insight, and deliberately aim at reaping inflation gains. The overwhelming majority are too dull to grasp a correct interpretation of the situation. They go on in the routine they acquired in noninflationary periods. Filled with indignation, they attack those who are quicker to apprehend the real causes of the agitation of the market as "profiteers" and lay the blame for their own plight on them. This ignorance of the public is the indispensable basis of the inflationary policy. Inflation works as long as the housewife thinks: "I need a new frying pan badly. But prices are too high today; I shall wait until they drop again." It comes to an abrupt end when people discover that the inflation will continue, that it causes the rise in prices, and that therefore prices will skyrocket infinitely. The critical stage begins when the housewife thinks: "I don't need a new frying pan today; I may need one in a year or two. But I'll buy it today because it will be much more expensive later." Then the catastrophic end of the inflation is close. In its last stage the housewife thinks: "I don't need another table; I shall never need one. But it's wiser to buy a table than keep these scraps of paper that the government calls money, one minute longer."

Human nature doesn't change; while Mises wrote The Theory of Money and Credit long before the phrase "peak oil" became fashionable, the first sentence I highlighted indicates he wouldn't have been surprised at the urgency with which the word "drill" is spoken today. And substitute "speculators" for Mises's "profiteers." Sound familiar? Similarly, inflation's basic dynamic is always the same. But various inflationary periods, both in the U.S. and elsewhere, have played out differently. If our current one matches Mises's classic life cycle of inflation, and today's housewife hasn't yet bought that new frying pan (drivers filling cars a quarter-tank at a time hoping for lower prices next week, etc.) then expediency's best days are still to come.

51 Comments:

Blogger Spider said...

TCR,

I love your blog, as I've said before. And I love reading the posts you put up about economic issues as I didn't take any business classes in college. (Dual major Math/Music.) So I find them enlightening.

I don't know if you'll post a reply here in the comments, put is there a solution to this inflation problem? Or should the better question be, what would be your solution to our inflation, and other economic, problems as a nation? Or do just have to grin and bear it and ride this wave out?

6/17/2008 7:33 AM  
Blogger Chris said...

TCR has often mentioned the monetary policy of this Fed often includes the continued printing of new capital, to keep up with the rising of prices (note: with each printing of new money comes new interest congress owes to the fed for the interest cost of purchasing the capital). Stop printing money, the value of the dollar stabilizes, or even increases. This means the stock market would have to get used to a relatively stagnant period, but at least those who are paid for work instead of investment would see their capital normalize. Then, as the dollar strengthens internationally against the Euro, gasoline prices would also level out.

As a personal side note: given the massive international increase in petroleum consumption, I can't imagine a day when the cost of gasoline goes down...at least until the day that demand decreases, and OPEC is stuck with a few million barrels, because we have found ourselves a new alternative. Of course this scenario will not play out for some time on the order of decades.

6/17/2008 10:41 AM  
Blogger Chris said...

Oh, and I now buy my gas a full tank at a time, knowing tomorrow it will be more expensive (an action my limited budget barely affords)...I believe this is akin to the example of purchasing the frying pan years in advance, knowing it's not getting any less expensive.

Anybody else doing this?

6/17/2008 10:44 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, I'm at the second "housewife" stage; especially when it comes to gas. I have started filling up whenever I see a price that seems decent, even if I have a half a tank. I don't think gas prices are coming back down any time soon. I'm starting to think the same way about other things I will need or want eventually.

6/17/2008 10:56 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well this housewife, seening a pack of peppers at the grocery store selling for $3.95, stops buying peppers. REtired, and just two of us to cook for, we manage fine. But after gas for the car and food for the table, I'm sure buying less other "stuff". Don't know how people with big families are managing.

6/17/2008 11:31 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is there anything that says it's not possible for petroleum's price to be inflating simultaneously due to scarcity {increased demand at home and abroad, which may or may not be cyclical but is unlikely to back down an whole helluvalot, runs up against limits of our current drilling/extraction infrastructure} AND bad monetary policy {from horrific management by Greenspan/Bush/et.al.} ? I mean, it has been going up pretty fast, and many people believe it will continue to do so. Two inflation paradigms are better than one.

Just yesterday I was reading some stuff from Matt Simmons, the big peak-oil defender, which argued quite forcefully that the badly-aging extraction and delivery infrastructure of the world oil majors is a limiting factor on oil production right now. The message I get from him is that, as an oil-man, he believes that there's plenty of crude still in the ground, and that we could significantly increase our extraction/delivery output, but to do so would require a worldwide Apollo-program type effort to replace the run-down critical oil infrastructure with new stuff before we even begin to increase output capacity. It seems, in his view, we cannot plan on cheap petroleum for energy ever again, because by the time we get to Step 2 (increase our output capacity), demand will have long since overwhelmed current output capacity and we will need to have massive inputs from alternative fuel sources anyway -- therefore we need to start working on the alternative sources yesterday. Yesteryear. Either that or gigantic crash in standard of living.

6/17/2008 12:11 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The more I hear about this kind of thing, the more confident I get in the following:

We need to get off of OIL, period.

By now it's impossible for conservation to drop demand far enough for production to catch up. Too much of American life leans on oil, and we can't just rip up the entire Earth in vain because of it. Oil itself has finally, and conclusively, failed the cost/benefit analysis, the question is what to replace it with & how the hell we get there from here.

6/17/2008 4:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

1) Need to get off of oil. Couldn't agree more, BUT hydrocarbons deposited over eons in the form of fossil fuel are the ONLY concentrated form of solar energy dense enough to provide usable energy. Except, of course, fission of uranium.

2) Monetary policy and fiscal overspending have depleted the value of the dollar, AND worldwide demand has strained the fixed supply.

3) Aging infrastructure and extraction technology have fixed the supply quotient of the equation while the easier reserves are being depleted.

4) A worldwide recession or depression would reduce demand in the short term.

6/19/2008 4:55 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"New" has a different meaning today. It doesn't mean off the factor line, but rather something I did not own yesterday, that I own today. The stigma/pain of owning used is much less than the pain of the price. The rich have become our big brothers and sisters within the family. They get the "New" often, and hand it down, etc. Immigrants are very aware of this and are some of the biggest customers. Goodwill, auctions, rummage sales, CraigsList, and the like, are busy. Does that change the game?

6/19/2008 2:46 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Whale oil in short supply, world to go dark"
Headline in the Boston Globe in the 1890's.

The analogous historical period for this one is 1835. There was a huge spike in prices (both land and food) preceding a crushing deflationary depression. We're headed, after an unsustainable credit bubble, for Mises' "crack up" bust.

All that "credit-from-thin-air" has to be wiped away, mostly by default.

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