Friday, June 10, 2005

Another Interesting Poll....

Another opinion poll is out, this one by AP-Ipsos. The media's emphasis on constant polls---and politicians' finger-in-the-wind reliance on them---usually bugs me. But at times like this, when there are so many political, economic and social undercurrents, polls can be illuminating and useful.

The results of the AP-Ipsos poll are here.

To me, the two most interesting results are the following:

1. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? (May results are in parentheses)

Right direction, 35% (36% in May)
Wrong track, 59% (59)
Not sure, 6% (5)

2. Overall, do you approve, disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

Approve, 43% (47% in May)
Disapprove, 55% (51)
Mixed feelings, 1% (1)
Not sure, 1% (2)

These are shockingly dismal numbers. The "right direction" and "overall approval" percentages are at new lows.

Now, I know why I disapprove of Bush's performance, and readers of this space know why as well. But at least on the surface---especially for those who get their news from the mainstream media---things in this country seem to be going pretty well right now. The stock market is stable with the Dow only a few percentage points off an all-time high, the value of Joe Six Pack and Sally Soccer Mom's house is up, unemployment is allegedly low, and inflation is purportedly well-contained.

And almost 60% thinks the country is on the wrong track.

I still see far too much complacency out there, so I'm not quite ready to credit the public with waking up to Iraq---even in light of this week's Washington Post poll as well as Ipsos, which shows similar disapproval. So what's bothering people? It can't be all about Social Security or Terry Schiavo. A consumer squeeze, especially at the gas pump? Debt levels? Housing bubble worries? Perversely, could it be resentment over too much media coverage of those issues and not enough Michael Jackson or Paris Hilton?

Whatever it is, we know Scott McClellan will tell us it's because "the President is taking on the tough issues that no one likes to deal with." When does reality render that spin useless? 35% approval rating? 25%?

And, more ominously, think about this: Does this bunch strike you as the type to sit still and watch as Bush's approval rating falls into the 30's? What's the best way for this President to get that rating back up lickety-split?

78 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

can you say security alert?

6/10/2005 7:43 AM  
Anonymous austinboo said...

I can say security alert, Iran, Syria, and a lot of other things.

6/10/2005 7:58 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would not place too much faith in the question regarding the country's track. People can respond to this question the same way for diametrically opposite reasons. BTW,it is nice to read an apparently genuine conservative commentary , something that is in short supply in this country.

6/10/2005 9:44 AM  
Anonymous Joseph Palmer said...

The stock market is stable with the Dow only a few percentage points off an all-time high,

Woah, not so fast. Things aren't so sweet for us long term inverstors...
Let's have a look at a few common indexes, referenced to Bush's first day in office...

DOW JONES
10,587.59 Then
10,516.78 Now

The DJIA is Down 70.81 points, -.67%

NASDAQ COMPOSITE
2,770.38 Then
2,073.39 Now

NASDAQ is down 696.99 points, -25.16%


S&P 500 INDEX
1,342.54 Then
1,201.78 Now

The S&P 500 is down 140.76 points, -10.48%


Light, Sweet Crude
25.43 Then
54.28 Now

LSC is up 28.85, +113.45%

Now where I come from, that's bad news to everyone, except maybe
to an oil man, but then again, Bush was an oil man....

6/10/2005 9:53 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think it is a combination of things, not just Iraq or any other one thing.

6/10/2005 10:22 AM  
Blogger zen said...

Add to those numbers the fact that recruiting is way down, despite sign-up bonuses. I don't think we can ignore just how significant the 'war on terra,' paticularly the quagmire in Iraq, is on the American psyche. The reality has not matched the rhetoric since before this war even began, and it continues to be a drain financially and more importantly in lives and quality of life.
What would help bring up the numbers for Bush? Well, just look back to the time they were the highest—just after 9/11. But I'm not convinced that another attack would have quite the same effect, especially since the Bush mantra has been that we are safe here specifically because of the wars 'over there.' That will only expose that position to be the "war is peace" Orwellian surrealism that it truely is.

6/10/2005 10:55 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Our system is a confidence game and that is what is waning. Perhaps because we have an administration whittling away at what made things right over decades; we like our political party to have some ethics and they consistantly have to tell us they are Christian - who is he trying to convince him or us. If the reason to Iraq were a lie - they tried really hard to sway the intel - what else will they do and how. The truth on Social Security is Bush wants to eliminate the program, but he won't say that but he'll pull every salesman trick out of the book to ramrod it down our collective throats. We are losing our common humanity. The day of reckoning, environmental catrosphe and debt payment will come for us or our children. Maybe this is all just the last gasps from the middle class. A recession is when you lose your job, a depression is when I lose my job. In this economy you are either doing fantastic or you are hanging on.

There will always be trouble (i.e., thugs who do terror - do you suppose the Indians considered us "terrorists", or the union and confederates consider each other that way) in the world to one degree or another. We have to learn to deal ane use international methods. Perhaps this is what one gets when they constantly pull the fear card.

I just read that the new 30 is 40 (years of age). We could also say that the new millionaire is a billionaire. Who will buy homes in the future at these prices? Walmart employees? As retirees start in 3 or so years to transfer their wealth from growth to income, risk to less risk, by selling stocks for cash withdrawal, who will buy those stocks as they come crashing down? Demographics has been listed as the reason for the rise, it can be the reason for the fall. Besides historically the market is quite high for the long term returns we have recently been accustomed too, even the historical 11% is not achievable at these prices. A lot of various quality assets are high and we are at a point where demographics indicate there will be a lot of sellers, at the same time traditional pensions and health care is being squeezed. And the political party in charge of all 3 branches would rather fight about gay marriage and operates on a "pay to play" plan. Oh yeh baby, bring it on.

6/10/2005 11:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe Bush doesn't care about polls. Who needs real voters when you have Katharine Harris?

6/10/2005 11:21 AM  
Blogger TravisG said...

I'll divulge my most exotic tinfoil-hat conspiracy theory: Nothing else would boost Bush, who inspires a fierce protectiveness in his most loyal supporters, like a fake assassination attempt. Make the patsy whatever niche group you wanna forever marginalize or inspire vigilantism toward, put Bush in some sort of "coma" or whatever, let him cool his heels in a Secret Service-guarded hospital suite watching ESPN all summer and let the media wait outside and cover around the clock every change in his medical "condition."

I've been waiting for this for about three years now, honestly, because it would be startlingly effective.

(Please note that I said "fake." I am not advocating the actual harm of anyone, because I'm the type of Christian who doesn't believe in violence, owns no weapons more dangerous than kitchen knives and has never even been in a fistfight.)

6/10/2005 11:24 AM  
Blogger T Schmidt said...

I would disagree with the poster above about another terrorist strike hurting Bush. There is a large segment of America driven by fear, most of America really. They will pull together behind whoever our leader is at the moment. I really don't think they will try to do anything to boost Bush though, he isn't running again, it doesn't really matter. The Republicans need to find someone to beat Hillary, not that that will be hard to do.

6/10/2005 11:48 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bush still has "things" he wants to do like Social Security and judges. He cannot do that with an approval rating here it is now. He will do anything to get it back up.

6/10/2005 11:49 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We have been swift boated one too many times.

6/10/2005 12:21 PM  
Blogger David Studhalter said...

A tide in the affairs of men. They can try what they like, but it's turned, and the electorate is finally ready to move away from Radical Conservative government. (No, that's not the sound of whistling in the dark you hear, it's whistlin' while we work to build a coalition of people who believe in the American system of representative government, and who just HATE it when their government lies to them. Remember Watergate?)

6/10/2005 12:30 PM  
Anonymous ctbill said...

good post. Ominous, indeed.

6/10/2005 12:45 PM  
Blogger KS said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6/10/2005 1:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just read Steve Soto's piece on the saber rattling re: Syria. Looks like it's planned to be a BIG THREAT by early 2006.

6/10/2005 1:01 PM  
Anonymous JWC said...

I wouldn't be at all surprised at something with Syria or Iran... more likely right now Syria. I have no trust or faith in this government and believe they are as bad as Nixons goons if not worse... (History will be the judge.)

I have a friend who was a Bush voter, life long Republican but not an extremist. She has a 20 year old son who used to talk about joining the military. No way, no how will she let him do that. And apparently lots of other Mom's are doing the same thing. If you have a son (or grandson in my case) about the right age, no matter what your politics, there is a terrible feeling about this Iraq thing and the possiblity of a draft. In my opinion that is where at least part of the unease is coming from in the polls.

6/10/2005 5:24 PM  
Blogger Nathan said...

Good evening as we head into this weekend.

I have heard about these polls and the declining numbers and I will speculate about a theory that I have read about (I wish I could remember the author or where I saw it) and I hope it is happening now. It is this: that ignorance and/or passivity has been recently used as a type of currency and it is beginning to be all spent up.

Let’s look at this in a real world example that has happened and is still happening now, with enterprise software. At the beginning with companies such as Oracle they would sell you a dream, a framework of a thought on a developers table, but they sold it as a current product. People bought it because it was all they had and at the time it was the only solution.

Unfortunately it didn’t stop there. These same companies kept selling ‘future visions’ as current product functionality and kept damaging their credibility. Now, you see ads on TV making fun of these very same software companies and their sales tactics (remember the cut-out slipping under the door?).

What has happened now? These enterprise companies’s credibility has been used up. Enterprise customers no longer believe or buy based on what they hear from the seller, but what they research in their own right through networking and reference requests and analyst papers. They have become smarter about their own interests and how to achieve them.

Are individuals starting to become as smart as enterprise customers? Has their passivity been spent?

6/10/2005 7:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

very interesting post by previous poster.

6/10/2005 7:37 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We are less than American...in almost every way.

We are less American than we were when Bush took office...

The GOP, most of them are good people, they love America, they have mirrors they can see what we have become.

There just isn't enough smoke....Bushism can't last...

6/10/2005 9:59 PM  
Blogger Siryn said...

My theory is that there may be a growing feeling that we shouldn't trust the administration, and I think that the growing bile between the parties is starting to really distract everyone.

What weapons of mass destruction? Just War theory got tossed by the wayside for political convenience. Now 'spreading freedom' is why we are in Iraq. Next year, it will be something else. [note: I am not saying that we should leave, since we utterly ravaged that country during the war. We have a duty to ensure that it's got a strong foundation that is built correctly. But as I expected, it's like another Bosnia or Korea - we are there indefinitely, with no real exit strategy because we can't afford to leave on any given timetable.]

Look at all the prison scandals, and how they have been covered up. It's abhorrent.

We don't feel safer, but we are losing our civil liberties. We certainly aren't safer at the airport, because the government-funded nimrods are still missing things. TSA is nigh useless other than a mild deterrent to a teenage prankster, if that.

Terri Schiavo showed us the depths of ruthlessness that the Republicans have when they are whoring themselves out for political avarice.

The most sickening thing, though, is just how partisan everything is - the Republicans are drunk with power and the Democrats are ineffectual buffoons with no spine, no convictions. Who is the lesser evil, really? Everything is a partisan fight. The bilious nature of it all really does start inducing nausea.

I can't wait for these four years to be over. And I'm an independent.

6/10/2005 10:05 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

When the lies, the dishonesty, the conspiracies,the arrogance, the know it all attitude will stop. When the real compassion from the heart will translate into health care, jobs creation, stop the outsourcing of jobs and above all stop the secrecy that is the mantra in washington. When the republicans will start thinking and treat other people as humans and not slaves to fight their wars, when they will come back to their senses and stop being enebriated with power that they walk all over the americans and the world. That's when the americans people will have confidence and trust in this government again, but this is wishful thinking, as their goal is armaggedon.

6/11/2005 5:24 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, very interesting about spending ignorance and passivity. The Bush thugs have absolutely counted on the public's apathy/deludability to pull off their crimes in broad daylight. But even our willed ignorance has limits. It's like we're saying, 'hey, wait a minute, even I can see that whole Terri Shiavo thing was sick pandering at best ... hmm, kind of sheds a new light on their other actions.'

6/11/2005 5:27 AM  
Blogger Tayefeth said...

unemployment is allegedly low

Allegedly being the key word. My husband got laid off and hasn't been able to find a job in his original field. Once the unemployment runs out, does anyone still count him as unemployed, or do the number crunchers assume he's disappeared?

6/11/2005 8:57 AM  
Blogger G said...

I think if he could bend over far enough and stick his head up his own ass, that would do the trick and the approval would skyrocket. After all, everyone appreciates honesty. That and a good freakshow.

Wait, scratch that. Head's already there. Guess we're back to square one.

;-)

6/11/2005 2:52 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I guess we know what the Republicans will do when the poll numbers go down - use 9/11 in any unethical way they please.

I just read an intersting predication the other day, come late 2006 (before elections) Bush will come out and say our troops are coming home, we have succeeded in Iraq. After the election Bush will come out and say, oh, but we have some cleanup work to do so we'll have to stay longer.

A while back you wrote about stirring people's emotions into a frenzy; expect that to be a common tactic of the Republicans and Karl Rove for some time to come. War, Iraq, 9/11, terrorism, coming home, war, Iraq, 9/11, staying longer, Iraq...

6/23/2005 2:19 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's an interesting point, if we assume for one moment that Iraq was about democracy, did we have to go to war with Iraq.

See this article at the Catholic Report on how Kuwait is bringing Democracy and women rights to the forefront by themselves.

March 31, 2003, If you ever get a chance, read this issue of Time magazine, "The Road to War", "First Stop Iraq". You'll find out the admin planned Iraq well before 9/11, that Cheney runs the place, and that Powell was back-stabbed by Cheney, Rove, Bush.

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Debt Consolidation can help you reduce your interest burden by charging an interest rate lower than the rate on your existing loans. Debt consolidation loan can also allow you to make small monthly payments by extending the loan period



debt Consolidation
Debt Consolidation can help you reduce your interest burden by charging an interest rate lower than the rate on your existing loans. Debt consolidation loan can also allow you to make small monthly payments by extending the loan period



debt Consolidation
Debt Consolidation can help you reduce your interest burden by charging an interest rate lower than the rate on your existing loans. Debt consolidation loan can also allow you to make small monthly payments by extending the loan period

6/24/2006 2:47 PM  
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