Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Following The Money

Does Alan Greenspan have some explaining to do?

Readers may recall that a few weeks ago, I wrote this piece about the relationship between Federal Reserve monetary policy and the price of oil. I speculated that because of the effect of excess liquidity, the Fed may have reached the limits of its monetary policy unless it wanted to risk sending the price of oil far higher.

Now things get more interesting.

Over the past few months, the Fed has been pumping an extraordinary amount of liquidity into the financial markets, even as it has continued to raise interest rates slowly and reassure the public with happy talk about the strength of the economy. As I explained previously, the Fed does this by maintaining a constant "pool" of temporary liquidity; importantly, it can vary the size of this pool and thus adjust the amount of easy money in the financial system. This money is "temporary" because the Fed essentially loans it out to intermediaries, who must pay it back within a specific period. Before it is paid back, however, it finds its way into stocks, bonds, oil, gold, and other financial instruments. In addition, the Fed also "creates" money to inject into the system that never gets paid back; this occurs via "permanent open market operations" which are an extremely potent way to provide liquidity to the market and the economy.

It is difficult to overestimate the importance to the financial markets of Fed-created liquidity. In a paper from August 2003, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis wrote, "Open market operations are not another weapon in the Fed's arsenal, but the only weapon in its arsenal."

With that in mind, what happened last week is fascinating. Here are two charts of the Fed's recent level of activity. The first shows the expanding and shrinking daily size of the temporary liquidity pool. The date (ending on July 8th) is indicated on the bottom of the chart, and the size of the pool in billions is on the left:



And now, the Fed's permanent liquidity injections over the same time period:



If these charts are difficult to see, you can click to enlarge them. In addition, a link to a clearer version of the top one is here, and the bottom one is here. Note however that these charts are updated daily to reflect new activity, so anyone using those links to view the charts will see current activity and not a screenshot of the specific time period I've shown here.

As the first chart shows, temporary liquidity hit a multi-year high on July 5th, which was Tuesday, and it remained highly elevated on Wednesday and Thursday. And the second chart indicates that "securities lending"---another way for the Fed to create liquidity in the financial system---saw a huge spike on June 30th.

It is important to understand that the Federal Reserve does not make these charts available. It only provides the raw data on its operations, and leaves it to the public to calculate the actual amount of continuing liquidity from day to day. Financial professionals generally consider this "man behind the curtain" stuff. Those who are aware of it don't like to discuss it, because it implies that stocks rise and fall based on something other than fundamentals and their own acumen. You will almost never see this discussed in the mainstream financial media, for example. And that's just fine with the Fed.

I watch these charts every day as a function of my job, and have for many years. What appears above is extraordinary activity---particularly the size of the "temporary" pool, which the Fed almost doubled to $40 billion in just a few days leading up to last Tuesday, despite the fact that oil was trading over $60. And since all that money provided by the Fed can be leveraged, the effect on the financial markets is magnified.

Why the need for all that easy money all of a sudden? The Fed doesn't take this sort of action for no reason, particularly when the price of oil is already at an all-time high. It does so in response to circumstances it predicts will create a need for liquidity, or when it specifically wants to support the stock market as it did after 9/11.

The terrorist attacks in London took place on Thursday. The Fed dramatically increased the pool of liquidity available for stocks to a multi-year high 48 hours before that---an ideal amount of time for that liquidity to filter into the market---and kept it elevated for the next few days. And indeed, it worked. The stock market saw heavy buying right at the opening bell on Thursday and has shot straight up since then.

Why did the Fed do this? Was it just another coincidence in our financial markets that somehow managed to immediately precede a major geopolitical event?

One person can give us some answers easily and quickly: Alan Greenspan. Doesn't it behoove him to do so before he rides off into the sunset a few months from now?



Update: Some readers have raised good questions in the comments section, which I address. The purpose of this post was not to posit some grand malevolent conspiracy. I don't think I did that. I was simply noting specific activity in the financial markets that---based on my observation and judgment--was both interesting and atypical in and of itself, and even more so in light of the events of last week.

171 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Important stuff. This post begs to be forwarded to some major media outlets to get some exposure.

7/12/2005 7:50 PM  
Blogger Louise said...

I'd label this "tin foil hat" stuff, except that I feel certain, from your previous posts, that you're not prone to that kind of thinking at all. So...hmm...

7/12/2005 7:54 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ummmm... wow.

I'm trying to wrap my brain around the idea that a (once and future?) republican is thinking like this.

I thought it was just me.

7/12/2005 7:57 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hmmmm, indeed.

7/12/2005 8:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very interesting. And I do not think this is too "wonkish." It is actually very clear, and those charts help a LOT.

7/12/2005 8:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your a great blogger so you already know the importance of each and every word and phrase.

A casual reading of your post tell me your entering uncharted waters.

This post deserves a follow up precisly explaining what your getting at here. No need for hints or clues. Just lay it out.

7/12/2005 8:32 PM  
Blogger Antonie said...

You charts are crystal clear. And here I am trying hard not to believe in conspiracy theories or behind the scenes government!

7/12/2005 8:57 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

is alan greenspan
really osama?

i've never seen them together...

7/12/2005 10:26 PM  
Blogger BullandBearWise said...

Or there could be a perfectly reasonable explanation. The securities lending event on 6/30 was for end-of-the-quarter "window dressing" and the high outstanding balance around the July 4th holiday was to provide liquidity to Americans spending money celebrating their independence.

7/12/2005 10:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BullandBearWise has a good point. Graphs of the same time period for the past couple of years should be able to give a better indication about how "extraordinary" this year's data is.

7/12/2005 11:02 PM  
Blogger BullandBearWise said...

Here's last year:

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOSP500CustChart.asp?BegDate=6%2F12%2F2004&EndDate=7%2F12%2F2004

and the year before:

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOSP500CustChart.asp?BegDate=6%2F12%2F2003&EndDate=7%2F12%2F2003

Same general idea...

7/12/2005 11:10 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks bullandbearwise for the past info. Look the name Greenspan
and the word conspiracy do not
belong together in the same sentence. Come on, let's get
real here.

7/12/2005 11:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

greenspan runs this economy along a razor's edge. Mainstream mom and pop investors just pay attention to what the financial media say and they treat Greenspan like he was some kind of Messiah. I also think that it is very important to realize that there very well could have been information about a possible terrorist attack somewhere. This information wouldhave been passed to the Fed in order tokeep the economy afloat. If the DOW dropped below 10000 (which it looked like it was going to do before the terror attacks) the economy would have gone down alotfurther. One of the best tells ofconsumer confidence is the Dow. A lot of people dont invest (or save for that matter) but they know what the stockmarket is and if it went below 10k it would have been plastered all over the newspapers and tv news. this would have curbed their spending because they would be worried about an economic downturn. The Fed did what it had to do in order to prepare forapossible terrorist attack, even though it is artificially keeping the economy afloat. London security forces had said they were on alert for an attack over the last several months. It could have been based on intelligence,or just on the fact that the G8 conference would be a likely target. And even if there was morespecific intelligence it would be very difficult to stop the nature of the attacks that occured.

7/12/2005 11:43 PM  
Blogger The Cunning Realist said...

Thanks for the comments. Before writing the post, I looked at data from the same time of year for several previous years. The only year that saw anything remotely similar to this year was 2004---and even then, the rise in the liquidity pool was not as sharp as this year when it increased by 60% in one day. Second, the far gentler rises in previous years---if they have occurred at all---have dissipated after the 4th of July. The massive increase this year took place after the 4th. Third, and perhaps most importantly, oil was trading in the 60's this year when the Fed took this action---thus it was far riskier for the Fed to print all that money now as opposed to years past, when its monetary policy was not constrained by the price of oil or other commodities.

7/12/2005 11:53 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

All a bit much, perhaps. But, certainly besides his own connections, his wife is Andrea Mitchell-foreign affairs correspondent for NBC.....
Your previous credibility allows me to watch this maybe play out elsewhere, and not write you off too fast.

7/13/2005 12:21 AM  
Blogger BullandBearWise said...

Wraith, I think you’re giving the Fed too much credit. In that they hold more securities on behalf of foreigners (mostly Asians) than they do for domestic banks, they do the bidding of overseas interests now. At $2 billion a day in financing, Asians want to keep the American consumer strong and fearless. They are the true enablers of our misguided foreign exploits and they’ll be left holding the bag when this entire episode finally blows up.

7/13/2005 12:23 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

at the VERY least, this was an interesting post to read. I appreciate the clarity as well.

7/13/2005 5:05 AM  
Blogger Michael said...

"I watch these charts every day as a function of my job, and have for many years."

I thought the Fed's open market operations were simply the plug needed to keep the Fed Funds rate at the target level. The spike you are pointing out indicates a demand for short-term deposits from banks. Unless you are saying that the Fed Funds rate was forced below target (as it was post 9/11) prior to the London bombings I am not sure Greenspan is the right person to answer your questions about why the liquidity was necessary.

The effective FF rate on 7/3 was 3.36 (above target) while on 7/11 we were happily back to 3.23. The data for the period in question should be up shortly but a liquidity injection does not shock me given the data point from 7/3.

7/13/2005 7:36 AM  
Blogger Michael said...

For good measure here is effective rate data around 9/11.

09/11/2001 3.50
09/12/2001 3.56
09/13/2001 3.31
09/14/2001 3.13
09/15/2001 3.13
09/16/2001 3.13
09/17/2001 2.13
09/18/2001 1.25
09/19/2001 1.19
09/20/2001 2.22
09/21/2001 3.11

The target was moved to 3% from 3.5% on 9/17.

7/13/2005 7:50 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CR, you disappoint me.

Two technical comments:

There are large, overlapping seasonal factors affecting reserves at end of quarter, around July 4, and for the summer months, all of which lead to more demand for reserves. Don't you think it would be a good idea to assess those factors and to systematically adjust for them before conjecturing about some deep dark conspiracy?

Then there is the fact that the US economy is growing - which by itself explains why many economic and financial measures are larger in most years than the previous year.

It is the unexplained element that requires explanation, not the established pattern. And your comments do not make much of an effort to make that adjustment.

You can do better.

7/13/2005 10:50 AM  
Blogger The Cunning Realist said...

To the previous poster....of course, I know there are seasonal factors at work that affect reserve levels. I addressed some of that in an earlier comment in this section in which I mentioned I had compared this activity to previous years. In addition, the oil factor is extremely important here, and has not been a factor in previous years.

The purpose of this post was not to dissect the entirety of Federal Reserve monetary policy or the U.S. economy. Nor was it to imply the existence of some "deep dark conspiracy." It was to raise some issues about activity that on the surface seemed out of the ordinary. And that's all I did.

You're welcome to discuss those factors you think are important that I did not go into.

7/13/2005 11:07 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm pretty cynical about this administration, but even I don't believe they had prior knowledge of the London attacks. Aside from the seasonal factors that some have mentioned, wouldn't it be more likely that there was something in the news right before the liquidity increase that Greenspan wanted to distract from? Maybe the Karl Rove stuff? It could be anything, there's so much bad news these days.

7/13/2005 3:24 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It could have been in preparation for:

1) The G8 summit, a likely terrorist target.

2) The prospect of hurricane Cindy/Dennis knocking out oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico

7/13/2005 3:31 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A good read. I don't see this as any type of a conspiracy theory, it just raises some legit questions I for one am curious about.

7/13/2005 5:28 PM  
Blogger Mark said...

That second chart looks suspiciously like it's giving us the finger.

7/14/2005 9:20 AM  
Blogger BullandBearWise said...

My comments surrounding the Fed's generousity around the July 4th holiday notwithstanding, I find the sudden drop in effecive Fed funds rate on the 6th rather peculiar.

http://bullandbearwise.com/FedFundsTargetChart.asp

7/14/2005 11:18 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who massively shorted United Airlines fortuitously prior to 9/11? And why was Sterling shorted prior to 7/7?
http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=45312

I smell a rat, a very big rat.

I don't like rats.

7/17/2005 10:30 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

to Dark Wraith:
an enema may relieve that load you are carrying.

7/18/2005 12:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think its a conspiracy theory for the administration to have some idea that there may be a terrorist action, although they don't announce it, and they let the Fed know and thereby liquidity is temporarily increased. If there had not been an attack, could the additional liquidity be taken out quickly?

I don't believe the administration (in the US or UK) provides the public with all the information they have, either before or after, but they do take actions based on that data.

7/18/2005 1:46 PM  
Blogger AWGB said...

Would this have anything to do with July 4th?

The markets were closed on a Monday, were they not?

The markets in London and Tokyo were open.

So maybe the US market needed the extra liquidity, and it went in on July 5th.

7/18/2005 3:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

*takes off tinfoil hat*
I've may have solved the mystery, and without any need for conspiring on the part of the Fed! Perhaps Greenspan was merely responding to the 6% drop in the British Pound in the 10 days leading up to the attacks. Granted, I don't actually know enough about finance to say that the Fed would want to respond to a huge drop in the pound by pumping in more liquidity, but at least that's something that they could be responding to. :-)

Then again, why in the hell was the Pound dropping like a rock 10 days before those attacks? And where did I put my hat? I think I need it again. ... :-/

7/18/2005 5:23 PM  
Blogger Jordy said...

Was Brit Hume on to somethng?

Hume's "first thought" on hearing of London attacks: It's "time to buy" futures
http://mediamatters.org/items/200507070007

7/18/2005 8:34 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

very intersting !
i notice dark wraith thought about: " national security information related to internal models setting probabilities on terrorist-related activities."

i am not in finance, but this idea is not serious, it is like claims that some 6 minutes advance warning...
2 solution
1) they organize it (remotly or not)
2) they pretend to have knowledge

but not in between.

if you can by a statistical tool predicate terrorist action,
aren't you at the level of this famous statisticien that predict his day of deith....somewhere provocating it...?
unfortunatly it is the king of business in the air actualy...
...the "false demiurgist" style,
sorry if i am a bit out of context, and poor in english

7/18/2005 9:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's hilarious that some of you are so eager to avoid 'conspiracies'. And that you seem so sure of your 'facts' but obviously have no idea what you're actually talking about.

If you would open your eyes a little, take off the blinders, stand back and look at the bigger picture, I think you'd realize that what you believe to be patently impossible is not only possible, but extremely likely...

Do any of you know the origins of the Federal Reserve?

Do you realize that when the Federal Reserve was created the United States of America was sold down the river to those who control the system?

Have you not heard Alan Greenspan's true beliefs on gold and the debasement of currency? He had some rather intelligent thoughts back before he jumped ship and decided to help the Globalists carry out their agenda.

http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.html

Why don't you spend a few hours educating yourselves on the history of money and start putting the pieces together for yourselves:

http://www.indybay.org/uploads/moneymasters1.wmv

http://www.indybay.org/uploads/moneymasters2.wmv


http://www.freedom-force.org/pdf/futurecalling1.pdf

http://www.freedom-force.org/pdf/futurecalling2.pdf

http://www.freedom-force.org/pdf/futurecalling3.pdf

http://www.freedom-force.org/pdf/futurecalling4.pdf


It's interesting that all of you are so concerned that you may be labelled 'conspiracy theorists', as if it's the worst fate imaginable.

Maybe you should get over whatever fear you have and start doing some independent research. I think you may be alarmed by what you discover.

It's curious that some of you are obviously aware of the fact that the USA is rapidly digressing from its position as an economic superpower to that of a Second-World nation, but you are unable to see that this is occurring by design.

You should really study those PDF documents and pay particularly close attention to the names that continually surface and to the connections between those who have played a role in shaping our current geo/socio/political/economic situations.

You can call me a conspiracy theorist all you like - I'd rather adorn that label than subscribe to theories that make zero sense and are completely contradictory from a macro perspective.

You may wish to spend some time thinking about your fervent adherence to commonly-accepted, though blatantly false theories. Hopefully you will realize that by maintaining your present positions on issues of the greatest importance - contrary to substantial evidence indicating otherwise - you are in fact perpetuating lies of the grandest order and are going to extravagant lengths to enslave yourselves, both financially and mentally, to elitests who care not for your best interests or those of our fellow countrymen.

Colin

7/18/2005 9:37 PM  
Blogger Michael Price said...

So what was happening in Threadneedle Street while the Fed was being so prescient? Surely Alan gave the word to Mervyn? I mean these central bankers are all supposed to be on the same page right? I'd like to know if they completed similar manoveurs.

7/20/2005 2:29 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I’ve looked into the “plunge protection” theory before, and always decided that the market is simply too big for it. Even with leverage.

Think about the NYSE trading an average of 1.2 billion shares a day (@ let’s say $30 a share), then add the derivatives market (admittedly runs on basis of underlying stocks), the Nasdaq, Commodities, ETFs, Bonds, FX etc… it’s just too big..

7/20/2005 12:18 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

about : "The previous comment trying to downplay statistics as a tool for security is absolutely wrong; it is not a fool-proof tool, but it is certainly an effective tool that is in use. However, such abstract information can only get you so far when it comes to the certainty of your predictions."

You want a fool TOOL PROFF !
It is not statistic !
912 days between 911 and Madrid Bombings
ok ?
then now :
1395 days between London bombings and 911....and 483 days between MAdrid and London
1395-483 = 912
if you count day 1 the day after each event
you have 911 days

if you want to bet on terrorism in west, it seems easier than horses, just use the americain emergency number.
I wonder how those terrorists are so inline with US emergency numbers...

maybe they watch too much Hollywood movies ?

7/21/2005 4:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

wmmm. This is really interesting. Thanks for bringing this up. There is another article, which points out another "atypical" financial movemet: http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=45312

7/22/2005 10:01 AM  
Blogger Chris said...

Wow. Direct knowledge or chatter along the communication lines, I think this makes it clear that something was expected to happen. As for the Administration having details, we have no proof here that there was a detailed knowledge of the London bombings. Conspiracy? Probably not, but the liberal in me wants to find out the truth, before taking Mr. Bush on his word, given the language his communications director and Karl Rove have chosen. Spinning "resistance" into "insurgency" into "terrorists" is highly questionable, and there are many other examples of poor language changes ("Global Warming" into "Climate Change" and relatedly "Threat" into "Challenge") just seems to me like "Newspeak" from 1984. I want some questions answered, and now.

7/23/2005 3:01 PM  
Blogger Sandro Pascucci said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

7/23/2005 3:51 PM  
Blogger Sandro Pascucci said...

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The World has a problem.
--------------------------------
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It is a purely economic problem because it relates to the issuing of money.

The money-issuing is decided, controlled and managed by Private Entities and not by the democratically elected Governments.
After centuries of counterfeiting, illegalities and machiavellismi, these Private Entitles have now gone so far as to control and rule whole Nations, no more sovereign but slave to an economic and financial mechanism know as “seignorage” (with the addition of the even worse “fractional reserve [banking system, N.d.A.]”).

Very often, too often, the politicians of every Nation, called to defend and protect the People that have democratically elected them, are corrupt and collaborate with these ruthless “money creators”. In this field, the laws themselves are created at the advantage of the International Bankers. Other laws that could help the People free themselves from this slavery, are changed, distorted or simply ignored.

The current Banking System is based on a Disgraceful and Inhuman Fraud.
This Fraud is called “Seignorage” [or "seigniorage" - N.d.A.] & “Fractional reserve [banking system - N.d.A.]”.


The information channels are manipulated and controlled by the economic power of Private International Bankers and no newspaper, TV or radio station will ever talk about “seignorage” and/or “fractional reserve”. There have been Presidents and men known worldwide who died under the powerful and inexorable blows of these Supranational Entities.

Lincoln and Kennedy for example, died after having issued money in the name of the People and for the People, trying to release Americans from the slavery of Central Banks, disguised as “public institutions”.
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Read alternative information; do NOT blindly trust mainstream information. Support the cause by spreading this leaflet and letting real information reach other people by means of the Internet, look for information free of any political ideology: political rivalries are used by International Bankers to divide us and distract our attention from the real problem.

[ 18 July 2005 - sandropascucci@yahoo.it ]
www.signoraggio.com

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