Thursday, October 13, 2005

Tip-Off

As a follow-up to my previous post, let's think about the implications of some well-connected private citizens receiving advance warning of a terrorist attack. The Daily News piece reported the following:
The NYPD confirmed that it learned of the E-mails on Oct. 3 - three days before Mayor Bloomberg, Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly and the FBI went public with the threat.
And this:
One of the E-mails was dated Oct. 3 with a 6:05 p.m. time stamp, about 90 minutes before Bloomberg was fully briefed on the threat, a police source said.
So it appears that by the evening of October 3, it was common knowledge among a select group of private citizens that the government feared a major terrorist attack would occur over the next few days.

The next day, October 4, the Dow Jones fell 0.9%, the S&P fell 1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%. Mayor Bloomberg went public with the threat on October 6. From the close of trading on October 3 through October 6, the Dow declined by 2.4%, the S&P by 2.9%, and the Nasdaq by 3.3%.

After 9/11, I had no doubt that advance knowledge of the attacks allowed some to reap blood profits via the stock market. This was abundantly clear from both the broad market action and the trading activity in some specific stocks and options. Of course, we later learned that the entire intelligence community's "hair was on fire" during the summer of 2001.

Hypothetical issue to debate: The White House receives a credible warning that a suitcase nuclear device is secreted in a U.S. city and set to detonate within 24 hours. Based on the new story in the Daily News and what we know post-9/11 and post-Katrina about this administration's approach to dealing with a potential or actual catastrophe, do you think "the public" would be warned first---or at all? Remember what really worried Walter Matthau's character in the movie Fail-Safe when it appeared New York was about to be destroyed? Hint: it wasn't the people.

174 Comments:

Blogger semper fubar said...

It's always been about the money with the Bush crowd.

I'm intrigued by your comment After 9/11, I had no doubt that advance knowledge of the attacks allowed some to reap blood profits via the stock market. This was abundantly clear from both the broad market action and the trading activity in some specific stocks and options.

Care to elaborate? I bet you, being in the "financial industry", have more information than I do about this.

I've got my tinfoil hat on - let 'er rip TCR.

10/13/2005 8:29 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why the surprise? This government is of the rich and for the rich and the rest good luck but don't get in my way.

That they then will use the info to make some money is a GIVEN.

What else can one expect with a ruling party that has no ethics or morals?

10/13/2005 9:10 PM  
Anonymous ruffian said...

unbelieveable

my capacity to be amazed by the low standards these guys set is almost hopeful-in some bizzare logic I'm sure.

just wow.

10/13/2005 10:24 PM  
Anonymous PeterVE said...

So, how can I get on that EMail distribution list? I'm tired of working for a living.

10/13/2005 10:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

please talk about this whole issue of Bush's most recent teleconfrence w/ solidiers in Iraq. Imagine our collective shock as it turned out to be totally staged!

10/13/2005 11:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How anyone can be shocked any longer is beyond me.

10/14/2005 12:19 AM  
Anonymous Julie Zuber said...

OK, bear with me because I know next to nothing about the stock market...but I heard that a few days before the 9-11 attacks that stocks on the 2 airlines involved were "bet on" losing. That's the best way I know how to describe it.
Is this what you are talking about?And if so...could you please explain it in laymans terms?
Thanx TCR!

10/14/2005 3:57 AM  
Anonymous jkas said...

there's no need for hypotheticals.

http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/news/opeds/2004/allison_ban_their_bomb_ft_080704.htm

10/14/2005 7:25 AM  
Blogger copy editor said...

Great post.

10/14/2005 10:25 AM  
Blogger 277fia said...

From what you wrote, if I follow the terrorist threat story to its logical conclusion, Mayor Bloomberg held a national press conference after being pressured by those in the know. Why waste a decent opportunity to make money from terrorism?

If true, that supports my conviction that Bloomberg is as corrupt as every other NY politician. His girlfriend, Diane Taylor, a charter member of the Pataki administration, kept Santa "The Black Widow" Albicocco on the state banking board for years.

Santa is a gem out of the Nassau County Republican political machine who swindled her very ill husband out of at least a $1m bucks when he was too ill to notice and then divorced him before he died.

Bloomberg knows all about Charlie Gargano and who was involved in Intelli-Check and Eagle Building Technologies. He owns a financial information company. for pete's sakes.

I read that he installed a fire hydrant in front of Ronald Lauder's townhouse so no one could park there. Nice. Read the SEC filings for RSL Comuunications some time when you have nothing better to do. I think it was Lehman Brothers who got in hot water for touting RLS when it was on the verge of bankruptcy.

Notice that in none of the filings is sales from prepaid phone cards ever disclosed. Also notice the number of deals for a few million here and there for customer lists etc. I doubt that the Finland phone business would hold up to scrutiny. Finland is or was the gateway to Russian phone traffic.

LOL - One of RSL's deals was with a French marketing company which happened to be in retail (think Estee Lauder) that made no sense. The marketer "acquired" an interest in one of RSL's companies and then bought shares directly from RSL-related parties. I bet the deal would not be so funny to the estate of the guy from NJ that lost $60m when RSL went out.

Most people don't realize that the stock market dropped for no good reason in the summer of 2002. Oil companies especially were a deal. If an investor knew for certain that the US was going to attack Iraq, you bought Exxon. If you knew that the US was coming to an agreement with Libya, you bought Occidental Petroleum.

I concluded awhile ago that the option trading in airline stocks was either a phony red flag or somebody made a stupid mistake out of greed. Real investors in the know positioned themselves before 9/11 long term by investing in defense-related business.

Biometrics is a great example of an industry that sprang seemingly out of nowhere after 9/11 but the average person doesn't know about it because companies like Crossmatch are privately held by the investor class. BTW, William Sessions is one of the Crossmatch directors and has been since 2000.

The 9/11 report, if it did nothing else, told everyone that Osama bin Laden was shooting his big mouth off about the pending attack all summer in 2001. Mr. bin Laden is a member of the investor class and it stands to reason that he directed his money manager to make investments which would be profitable after 9/11.

If you got a tip about where Osama bin Laden, world class terrorist, was putting his money, what would you do?

After 9/11, I took it for granted that the NYC financial community and NYC cops were as angry as I was about 9/11. I was sure they would take matters into their own hands to get to the bottom of it.

Now I'm not so sure. I've been in the vicinity of the NY stock exchange exactly once since 9/11 and that was in the summer of 2003. I was shocked to see all of the armed guards patrolling in front and to learn that visitors were no longer permitted inside the exchange. This was after the terrorist attack in the theater in Moscow and I knew Radio City was still open to the pbulic.

Now I think the bums on Wall Street keep the guards there in case the average American ever finds out what a bunch of crooks they all are.

Another LOL- Shortly before the war on Iraq started, Drudge had a big headline all day about Oprah's big anti-war show that afternoon. Sure enough, as soon as Oprah comes on at 4 pm, ABC interrupts with a press conference held by Mayor Bloomberg and Commissioner Kelly to announce an ill-defined and vague bullshit terrorist threat. ABC stretched out the interruption to 40 minutes by padding the conference with a reporter's analysis.

Oprah's anti-war guests? Tom Friedman and a professor of Middle East studies. I joined Oprah's chat room that day just so I could complain.

C.R, I hope you don't mind the long post but this stuff drives me crazy and I need to get it off my mind.

10/14/2005 4:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm certainly not trying to defend anybody here (especially these weasels) but 10/4 was also the day that the Dallas Fed president "spooked" the market. It's not like there was a big down opening. The market opened flat that day and continued to trade pretty flat until it tanked around 2:30, just after his speech. You must be aware of that CR; being an executive in the financial industry.

10/14/2005 5:26 PM  
Blogger Nathan said...

TCR, dare I say it, you are becoming cynical! Soon, ironic and after that bat shit crazy only able to laugh at the sillyness of our nation.

It is a sad progression but for me at least has led to the conclusion that nation-states and our old worldly political bonds (Dems vs. Republicans) are no more: there are simply the haves and the have nots. Hint: you are only on the 'have' list if your bank statement reads above let's say $100 million net worth. Oh, and you are also willing to fuck our earth and its various species (including the have not humans) till the dirty end. It ain't about much more.

10/14/2005 7:17 PM  
Blogger Hume's Ghost said...

http://mediamatters.org/items/2005101400
06

C.R., why do you hate the free market, are you a communit? (sarcasm)

10/15/2005 12:27 AM  
Anonymous Jeremy said...

I am not sure about these emails. I live in London and we had hoax emails like this all the time for a couple of years.

I've written a post on this.

10/15/2005 6:55 AM  
Blogger 277fia said...

C.R., I was busy reading old SEC files this week and just caught up with the Refco story in the NYT. On to the WSJ next.

LOL - You go away on a business trip and a major financial scandal breaks. Any link?

What I can't figure out is how Refco got caught. If someone knew about the investigation, there was a perfect opportunity to make a bundle.

The concept of an unregulated financial services company going public is nuts to begin with. I doubt too many investors outside of Wall Street actually have a clue as to the real risk.

Today's NYT Refco story about the mysterious nature of good charcter is idiotic in light of its earlier story about the disclosure of a signifant deficiency in Refco's internal controls.

I am curious about Refco's Santo C Maggio and the Sedona short selling case. The guy was Refco's president, after all. Shouldn't someone have taken that into consideration?

The Refco story follows on the heels of the Bayou Group hedge fund story and I'm sure there is more to come. Hedging, futures trading, foreign currency speculation - all seem like businesses tailor-made for organized crime.

The way I see it, Wall Street pulled off one of the biggest scams in world history with the telecoms and everyone got used to making a gazillion bucks a year. You get away with fraud once, it's tempting to do it again.

At one time, here on Long Island, everyone knew Tony "Ducks" Corallo and Neil Migiore were the heads of the Lucchese crime family. You might say hello to them in a restaurant but you knew if you did business with them, you could end up dead. Try to find Biff Halloran and ask his opinion.

I'm going to take a wild guess here that the price of oil has a lot less to do with supply than it does with Wall Street futures trading. If I'm right, they should all rot in hell or at least, be in the clutches of organized crime. A few Russian gangsters would do the trick.

Switching to NYC real estate, take a look at Forest City's (parent of Forest City Ratner) financials. Forest City's lenders must be sweating.

If I were Forest City's auditor, I'd take a look at who was the subcontractor on the construction of Sterling Glen assisted-living facilities and I'd start with the one in Bayshore. I'd also want to look at how Forest City became the prime contractor on a Hawaii military building project. Then I'd start looking at NYC property records.

Selling assets in a hot market and buying them back out of bankruptcy is a scheme that has worked before for some people. Ask the folks at Goldman Sachs.

The members of the NYC financial community are incredibly short-sighted and stupid. In 1995, the NYT and Newsday told everyone that mobbed-up Charlie Gargano shouldn't be in charge of petty cash, let alone the NYS budget. But did anyone listen? Noooo...

LOL - No wonder no one ever wants me near their books.

10/15/2005 1:06 PM  
Blogger rapier said...

The stock market pre 911 was in what turned out to be the middle of its bear phase that started in mid 00 and ended in March 03. There was nothing in the market action prior to 911 that was in any way extraordinary. Market action in May-June 02 looks exactly like aug-sept 01.

Except for market actions immediately after significant news events the habit of telling stories about why the market does things is silly. Such stories have to do with habits of the human mind and nothing to do with reality.

As to the action in UAL put options pre 911 it is possible that they were put on with knowlege aforethought. There is a wisp of smoke from the gun in that supposedly the option buyer could never be identefied. This is unusual to the point of unbelievable but not impossible.

As everyone knows the options were not exeercised or offset so no profit was taken. They expired worthless. Taken together it all seems so damning. However anyone with a bit of sophistication would know that the unually large option positions on one stock would be so damning that it would be impossible to come forward and take the profit on them. Maybe this is what happend but just as likely the buyer might have been embarrassed to step up or maybe even feeling guilty about taking blood money. In any case a smart person would just have bought index puts. Just as profitable and even a large position would be tiny in the whole open interest and uninteresting.

If the buyer was dastardly it very well might have been an AlQueda insider, not some spook of US origin.

10/15/2005 5:12 PM  
Blogger 277fia said...

Rapier, I might be wrong here but I think the FBI issued a statement at some point that the airlines options trading was attributable to a brokerage house in NJ. If I remember corectly, the firm was supposed to have sent out a newsletter before 9/11 to its clients that airline stocks were expected to fall. The FBI reported that it had no reason to believe that the firm was in anyway involved in 9/11.

I wish I could remember where I read the story. Don't count on me for its reliability. All I can recall is the NJ locale and I think the firm started with a "P'.

Ugh - I should have saved that one to the hard drive.

10/16/2005 10:52 PM  
Blogger 277fia said...

Rapier, One more thought. There was a lot of venture capital sitting around after the NASDQ boom. 9/11 presented an opportunity for investment. As I wrote here earlier, biometrics was one such industry.

Crossmatch Technologies is one such company as is a company named Utlra-Scan in Amherst NY. Tom Golisano, along with others, supposedly invested $18m in Ultra-Scan.

Crossmatch, besides having William Webster as a director, employs other high level FBI. Ultra-Scan, on the other hand, now employs members of the military.

Intelli-Check is a phony, publicly traded company set up by Charlie Gargano and freinds to launder money. Intelli-Check and Ultra-Scan, at one point, announced that they had entered into a partnerhsip of some sort.

One might ask as to how many different fingerprinting systems do local, state and federal governments actually use. I think the answer lies in the size of the Defense and Homeland Security budgets.

Somehow, I don't this is what Andrew Sullivan means when he writes about the benefits of privatizing government. Then again, I don't know where Sullivan invested his money.

10/16/2005 11:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Remember Brit Hume's (Fox News) first thoughts upon learning about the London subway bombings?

"...you know, the market was down. It was down yesterday, and you know, you may have had some bargain-hunting going on. I mean, my first thought when I heard -- just on a personal basis, when I heard there had been this attack and I saw the futures this morning, which were really in the tank, I thought, "Hmmm, time to buy."

Courtesy of Media Matters: http://mediamatters.org/items/200507070007

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Properties in Costa Rica main goal lies in leading you to a successful real estate transaction. We can help you get the Costa Rica real estate property or investment of your dreams.
Our real estate listing in the Central Valley combine desirable locations in West and East San Jose such as Escazu, Santa Ana, Rohrmoser, Sabana, Sabanilla, Montes de Oca and Moravia among others.
You will also find attractive real estate properties in the Central Valley provinces of Heredia and Alajuela, where locations such as la Garita and la Guacima are very appealing because of their wonderful weather, nearby facilities, very nice neighborhoods, farms and homes.
Additionally, we provide you with real estate services in both, the Pacific and Caribbean beaches and coastal regions of Costa Rica. Find your vacation home in the beach and smart investment oportunities close to the ocean. We offer quality real estate for sale in Guanacaste, Puntarenas, Manuel Antonio, Dominical and other special locations outside the Central Valley.
Costa Rica is a wonderful, peaceful and stable country, experience life at it's best!
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4/12/2007 4:20 PM  
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In our real estate listing, we offer a great variety of land properties of all kind all over Costa Rica, from nice city houses, including condos, lots, country houses and farms, to splendorous luxury properties with extraordinary ocean views or located in front of the most beautiful beaches of Costa Rica.
But we don’t just find those properties for you. We also give you all the legal advising regarding Costa Rica land properties regulations; our knowledge and expertise allow us to offer you a confident and dependable advice. Likely, we will advise you on how to make the best possible real estate investment anywhere in Costa Rica.

Our real estate listing includes great opportunities on Costa Rica Central Valley’s provinces such as San Jose, our Capital, with remarkable cities as Escazu at the west, or Curridabat at the east, experiencing a great development on both commercial and residential properties, making their real estate pricing highly attractive to investors; on other hand, Alajuela city gathers places with a very special warm weather such as Grecia, La Garita and Atenas, or beautiful farms for agricultural, cattle or nature preservation purposes as those located on San Carlos or Sarapiqui. We also offer land properties in Guanacaste, which is the province, along with Puntarenas, with the most beautiful tropical beaches on the Pacific Coast such as Tamarindo, Playa Grande, El Coco, Playa Hermosa, Nosara, Samara, Herradura, Jaco, Manuel Antonio, Dominical and Golfito, where the real estate business occupies the first place as the local economic activity.
We can’t leave outside our real estate listing, land properties of great beauty on the Costa Rica Carribean Coast like Tortuguero, Limon, Cahuita, Puerto Viejo and Gandoca Manzanillo.

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PRECONSTRUCTION CONDOS IN COSTA RICA
Purchasing a condominium before the construction begins is a way for developers to get the working capitol they need for their projects and for investors to save money on the finished product. Many times investors are able to resell the condominium for a profit before the work is complete, and in some cases condos have sold multiple times with multiple profits before there anyone actually took delivery of the real estate.

This practice is very common in Costa Rica as it provides economic incentives by means of low priced, preconstruction deals to the client, which is mutually benefitial to the developer. The precaution that we take and recommend to our clients, is to be sure that the developer who is building the project, has a proven track record either abroad, or more importantly, here in Costa Rica. Ask your agent to give you some background on the developer, and the team involved in the project including the architect, builder, and developer
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