Sunday, November 19, 2006

Mark Gleich Mark

I haven't written much about the economy or financial markets in a while. But it's been interesting to watch the stock market march higher with the attendant hype about "new all time highs" for the Dow. Of course, outside of niche market commentators, there's no mention that those new highs are nominal. Take a look at this chart via Barry Ritholtz that shows how the Dow has performed against gold in recent years. Jude Wanniski would have been proud -- and I'm sure he'd be reminding us right now that the Dow would have to rise several thousand more points to reach a "real" all-time high after accounting for inflation. This is one reason why, despite the stock market's rise in recent months, the economy still ranks as a major concern in public opinion polls. Give me a large truckload of million-dollar bills to distribute randomly for a few years, and I guarantee you the stock market will rise. I also guarantee that everything we need to live will get more expensive, and everything we merely want will get cheaper.

At this point, it's clear we've entered a period in which policymakers have decided that it's never a good time for a stock market decline or a recession. Natural ebbs in the business cycle used to be times of cleansing and adjustment. Now, with a Federal Reserve chairman whose scholarly interest is the Great Depression, soft spots are considered "deflation" and are to be avoided at all costs. I've posted before about the use of liquidity as a tool of the nanny state, and it's never been more true than right now. After the Fed's brief dalliance with sanity (draining liquidity) earlier this year -- during which the Nasdaq fell about 15% and some overseas markets plunged 25% or more -- the liquidity jets are blasting away again at full strength.

It's hard to predict how long this can continue (and risky to bet against it, of course). Monetary policy is the art of the possible, and much depends on our overseas creditors. But I think it's important to understand the dynamic at work, so one can either protect himself or recognize events as significant when they occur. I just finished reading a fantastic book called When Money Dies by Adam Fergusson. For those interested in what can happen when fiscal and monetary policy go awry, this is a must-read. Sadly, it's out of print and extremely rare; I've seen it listed by internet booksellers from $500 to over $1,000. As an alternative, you might try a library search using this wonderful service.

The book is an account of the inflation that ravaged Europe in the 1920's, particularly in Germany. Let's be clear: anyone who thinks we're living in Weimar-redux is either shrill or uninformed. Despite our current fiscal and monetary mess, the dollar is still the world's de facto reserve currency (although certainly not to the degree it has been in the past) and the U.S. still makes things the rest of the world buys. Germany enjoyed neither of these advantages eighty years ago, and that's important. But the basic dynamic of inflation doesn't change, and certain parallels are worth noting if only to understand the potential dangers of the path we've clearly started down.

I'd always thought Germany's runaway inflation in the early 1920's resulted from the harsh reparation terms imposed after World War I. Instead, Fergusson shows that inflation was a calculated path chosen by Germany's central bank to boost the country's exports and thus its domestic employment. After the war, the main fear in Germany was unemployment and the potential appeal of Communism. To the extent it made Germany's goods more competitive in foreign markets, inflation was desirable and politically expedient. Fergusson notes that prominent industrialists like Hugo Stinnes (on this Time magazine cover in 1923) openly supported inflation as deliberate policy. Stinnes ran Germany's equivalent of a Dow Jones-listed industrial giant, and thus benefited from inflation just as our own similar companies (and their stocks) are doing right now.

Moreover, Rudolph Havenstein, head of Germany's Reichsbank (the equivalent of our Federal Reserve) was open about his actions. From Fergusson (p.165-166):
Dr. Havenstein plunged on. Day and night 30 paper mills, 150 printing firms and 2,000 printing presses toiled away adding perpetually to the blizzard of banknotes under which the country's economy had already disappeared. Havenstein spoke of the efficiency -- the Leistungsfahigkeit -- of his printing system.
A central banker boasting about the ability of his printing press. Sound familiar? (If not, read the section on "Curing Deflation" halfway through this speech.)

As Germany went down this road, a cruel dichotomy developed. At the same time a pensioner needed a stack of paper money to buy a cup of coffee, the stock market and the economy soared because of the massive liquidity. Fergusson quotes from the letters of a private citizen:
Speculation on the stock exchange has spread to all ranks of the population and shares rise like air balloons to limitless heights. My banker congratulates me on every new rise, but he does not dispel the secret uneasiness which my growing wealth arouses in already amounts to millions.
The folly was easier to grasp, perhaps, if one was a foreigner. Again, from Fergusson (p.81):
The Times on April 18, 1922, printed a bitter report from 'a man of business' recently in the country:
The greatest fraudulent conspiracy in the history of the world is now being enacted in Germany with the full concurrence and active support of its 60 or 70 millions of people. Germany is teeming with wealth. She is humming like a beehive. The comfort and prosperity of her people absolutely astound me. Poverty is practically non-existent. And yet this is the country that is determined she will not pay her debts...They are a nation of actors...If it wasn't for the fact that the German is guiltless of humor, one might imagine the whole nation was bent on perpetrating an elaborately laborious practical joke.
Of course prosperity existed for some, and was to be seen on the surface. Those eating well in restaurants were those who could afford to eat well in restaurants. As money saved diminished like a lump of ice on a summer's day, there was in any case every incentive to eat it, drink it or be merry with it.
Inflation "worked." It was the fuel that created the veneer of thriving consumerism. And it worked most of all for the banks that sprouted on every corner, the 20 year-old stock trader, and those who had the savvy and means to protect themselves through hard assets.

There were consequences, of course. From Fergusson (p.229):
No people could be expected to remain unconcerned while huge profits and riotous luxury were ostentatiously being enjoyed by the few. Corruption bred corruption, and the Civil Service caught the infection even in the war years.

As the old virtues of thrift, honesty and hard work lost their appeal, everybody was out to get rich quickly, especially as speculation in currency or shares could palpably yield far greater rewards than labour. While the anonymous, mindless Republic in the shape of the Reichsbank was prepared to be the dupe of the borrowers, no industrialist, businessman or merchant would have wished to let the opportunities for enrichment slip by while others were making hay. For the less astute, it was incentive enough, and arguably morally defensible, to play the markets and take every advantage of the unworkable fiscal system merely to maintain one's financial and social position.

As that position slid away, patriotism, social obligations and morals slid away with it. The ethic cracked. Willingness to break the rules reflected the common attitude. Not to be able to hold on to what one had, or what one had saved, little as it worried those who had nothing, was a very real basis of the human despair from which jealousy, fear and outrage were not far removed. The air of corruption in business, politics, and the public service, then, was general.
Remember, this was Germany -- a society that had always been staid, ordered, and steeped in respect for the law. Something to think about in light of what we've seen in corporate America and Lagos-on-the-Potomac during recent years.

Just as the dynamic of inflation never changes, the "spin" from central bankers comes from the same script. Fergusson describes how most Germans tragically bought the spin until it was too late (p.18):
Most of them clung to the mark, the currency they knew and believed in, long after the eleventh hour had come round for the umpteenth time. Most had no choice; but all were encouraged or bemused by the Reichsbank's creed of "Mark gleich Mark" -- paper or gold, a mark is a mark is a mark. If prices went up, people demanded not a stable purchasing power for the marks they had, but more marks to buy what they needed. More marks were printed, and more, and more.
Confidence, of course, must be maintained. A bit of perspective for whenever we hear a more contemporary "creed" from a Treasury Secretary that "the U.S. favors a strong dollar."

So some cautionary parallels to keep in mind, particularly in light of what Germany's inflation-related moral breakdown facilitated in the 1930's (I'll leave it to others to debate whether state-sanctioned torture and an invasion based on a false pretense indicate we've already gone off the rails in our own unique way). If anyone's feeling patriotic and has an extra $500 or so laying around, I have a holiday stocking-stuffer idea for our Fed chairman.


Anonymous Thomas Daulton said...

Holy crap, TCR, I think I have been waiting more than six months for another one of your excellent economic analyses like this one. Just two days ago I was watching CNN, and thinking to myself, "The economic news all sounds so rosy, and all the usual skeptics and naysayers and nabobs have seemed to shut themselves up for the last several weeks, so I guess we're about due for the economy to well-and-truly tank sometime soon."

[Bearing in mind, of course, I think it was JK Galbraith's quote, "Markets can remain irrational longer than _YOU_ can remain solvent"...]

See, the reason this stuff really worries me is because I witnessed this firsthand during the California Power Crisis of 2000-2001. The system had these obvious flaws, vulnerabilities. So it didn't matter that the system was "nominally" set up for honest competitors to make a ton of money. The minute one unscrupulous player started exploiting the flaws, he made _two_ tons of money, and everyone else had to follow suit, and fast, for fear of being "left behind". The system worked honestly for something like four years until 2000, but then suddenly in a matter of days all the market competitors started gaming the flaws, and it just got worse and worse (for the consumers) until the whole thing collapsed.

I'm very worried that a similar fate awaits the current U.S. dollar, and the economy in general, via routes like the trade imbalance and the current collapse of the housing bubble. Theoretically each of the many market players (China, central banks, etc.) has a reason to keep the system running smoothly, so the optimists keep saying, nevermind the staggeringly large numbers, the system will never collapse. But when we hit one tiny bump in the road, suddenly everyone is going to try to screw everyone else over simultaneously, and so a total meltdown is possible with virtually no advance warning.

Neither a sane government, nor a sane population, would allow these naked flaws to continue so long, just because of the risk factor.

11/19/2006 1:35 AM  
Blogger jj said...

"I also guarantee that everything we need to live will get more expensive, and everything we merely want will get cheaper."

Now that's an interesting comment. Can you say more about why this is so, or link to something, a previous post of your own or anything else you know, that does? Thanks.

11/19/2006 2:56 AM  
Anonymous Mike said...

Fine post, CR (I linked to it, and excepted from it, over at my place). I'm with you: the revelation that Weimer Germany made a conscious policy decision regarding inflation of the reichsmark is shocking.

Bernanke's paving our road with good intentions too (unlike his predecessor). Let's see where it leads.

11/19/2006 9:12 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OK, at this point, what's considered a "hard asset?" Are you a sucker if you save money or run up debt? Could buying into foreign markets or currencies mitigate the risk? It's a bit tiring to keep hearing CR go on about a possible catastrophe and give no specific ideas about possible ways to avoid it.

11/19/2006 10:48 AM  
Blogger OrganicGeorge said...

The US has been effectively exporting inflation to China, much like we did to Europe after WWII.

The question is how do we reconize the "tipping" point in the latest cycle. A lot of very savvy investors have lost billions betting they could reconize the trend.

11/19/2006 11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Talk about a mess.

Over at TPMCafe: Rebooting the Dictator Software

"It is obvious, almost to the point of agony, to point out that the same people who cheered us into war are still our commentators and pundits, that the same lack of awareness of basic economic, political and military facts which led people to believe that there would be flowers and kisses in the occupation are still the dominant voices in our national media. It is also obvious to the point of agony that having rushed behind Bush fils' get rich quick scheme, they are now hoping that the Bush family fixer will be able to help them keep that which they have ill gotten.

And people wonder why the economy doesn't feel very good, and wages are going nowhere. Perhaps because the American elites are committed to making sure that all the wrong things have been tried before the right one is even considered."

This has been my experience for a number of years now: "I also guarantee that everything we need to live will get more expensive, and everything we merely want will get cheaper." Water, food, utilities, insurance, legal/medical, education, property taxes have been going up annually, sometimes even double digit. But things we don't need, or we have a choice to postpone the purchase (sorry don't need new clothes or designer labels) are cheap and getting cheaper. Why even bother to take care of things because its so cheap.

Nightline did a story last week on people 45 and older moving to Panama to live. They have also done stories on US citizens going to Asian countries for medical procedures. They are all saying the healthcare is better and affordable. Recently I've been seeing stories on Global inflation.

11/19/2006 2:01 PM  
Anonymous rapier said...

The Dow high is very funny. Only 2 of the 30 stocks made all time highs this week. Only 9 of them are even within 10% of their all time highs.

Now wonder some of us call it the Dow Jokes.

I will say the almost Soviet regularity of the rally is very comforting.

11/19/2006 8:42 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Excellent post and thanks. That certainly seems like the strategy to destroy all debt and the dollar. I have been wondering if they can pull it off, printing notes and creating computer blips. Or will a derivatives nightmare interrupt the plan.

Anonymous – I think of hard assets as gold and silver coin and bullion, whiskey, ammo, property, escape routes… but a warning doesn’t have to come with a plan. Solutoins vary and sometimes they don’t exist.

11/19/2006 9:15 PM  
Anonymous JWC said...

I hadn't really thought about it before, but you are right. The things you "need" are getting more expensive. And just "stuff" is cheaper.

Great post CR. I wish the reasons it is great were not true, but then I believe in reality.

Now, if I could just figure out a way to prepare...

11/19/2006 10:53 PM  
Anonymous stickler said...

Let's not forget the other thing that the Reichsbank got out of the hyperinflation: the erasure of Germany's internal wartime debt.

Instead of raising taxes on the wealthy after 1914, the (already-strained, pre-war) German government tried to finance the war in hopes they'd win it and charge the cost to the French, as in 1871. So they took out war loan after war loan, by 1915 almost exclusively from their own population since international debt markets were off limits. But no new taxes on the rich, certainly not!

While the reparations payments after Versailles were huge, the war debt was even worse. And only the latter of those two could be written off by screwing patriotic German investors.

So they did it. And, except for that beggaring-the-middle-class thing, and the role that played in the events after 1933, well, it worked out pretty well for the bankers.

11/20/2006 1:52 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

11/20/2006 9:46 AM  
Blogger Mitchell J. Freedman said...

Excellent information and analysis, except I think one can argue that the reason the inflation route was chosen was because of the onerous war debt the Allies placed on Germany after WWI.

Thus, the conventional cause and effect remains the same, but your analysis gives us a more complete picture that helps illuminate some of the recklessness among the US economic elite in our time.

11/20/2006 10:03 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your point about the Dow being at nominal highs is fair but overstated. With the dividend on the Dow about %1.6 and inflation at %2.4 the dividends almost cover inflation.

A more important point is the broader index of the sp500 is not even at nominal high.

11/20/2006 1:04 PM  
Anonymous rapier said...

On the DOW high. My link was cut off. Use this and scroll down

It states the DOW is weird becaues it is price weighted, not capitalization weighted. I won't go into the details but it must makes the thing a joke.

The thing about all these averages is that the compenent stocks rotate constantly. It's a moving target with the losers quietly taken out back and shot, and shiny new recruits with good prospects taking their place.

Inflation is our friend. Inflation is absolutely necessary. It's the grease which lubricates the credit system. Paying back in cheaper currency is a necessity. What is the optimal inflation rate is open to debate but deflation is not an option. Deflation is death: see the great depression.

There is a big trap here for many, including many progressives. There is a seductive arguement, which is logically consistent, which says hard money the only honest money. Don't believe it. There is no hard money. Money in all it's forms, even gold, is an abstraction. Fiat money is a more complex abstraction. Money is not sacred.

11/20/2006 6:48 PM  
Blogger kaimu said...


For thousands of years the only "stable" money was gold and silver. To this day it remains the only medium of exchange and value that cannot file bankruptcy and has maintained value throughout history, cultures and many wars and famine. Fiat currency cannot make those claims.

All money is used for is to exchange for necessities(basics) such as food, water and shelter, and as a store of value. What insurances do you have against a US dollar collapse?

Anyone who has a pulse and a wallet can tell you the "official" CPI inflation rate is a joke. They change the CPI as often as they change administrations in Washington DC. Listen to the "experts" on CNBC tell you the core is stable, yet what can you buy for $1 now compared to $1 in 1975? In 1975 a gallon of gas was $0.40 ... What has caused crude oil prices to escalate from $30 to $60 over the past few years? Speculative hedge funds? OPEC? Exxon greed? NO ... it is the same thing that caused the price of crude to go from $5 to $30 ... I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N ... The US government and all other foreign governemnts spend and print too much paper IOUs ... Historically that spending and printing rises ever more rapidly during war time. Now that we have the perpetual "War On Terror" like the perpetual "War On Drugs"(both un-winnable)get ready to see Walmart prices start looking like Neiman Marcus!

Call the US Air Force up and ask them what it is they have in their pilot emergency kits for money in the event they are shot down? Is it a $1000 US dollar bill? A $1000 EURO? A US Treasury blank check? Its not paper ... The answer ... British Sovereign gold coins ... In Honolulu I took a taxi to the airport and the driver was from South Vietnam. He escaped Saigon after the Vietnam War and was one of the boat people. How did he get out? He paid in Chinese silver bars his family had saved up over the years ...

Do you really think wealthy bankers don't have a plan? Who runs the GLD and SLV ETFs? Who makes loans to the big mining companies? Or do you think all they have in their portfolios is a crap load of YAHOO and GM stock? Just who is it that buys all this gold the Western Central banks sell every year?

Diversifying does not mean another tech stock ... Think outside the bubble ... If Safeway and Chevron stations closed and the banks closed how would you and your family survive? Don't say it's never happened ... a lot of people in New Orleans and Asia and Argentina would take issue. Diversify to me means "survival" ...

Gold pays no interest unless you consider peace of mind "interest" ... Since 2001 gold has risen in value over 20% annually even as the DOW hits nominally record highs this year.

Reality bites ...

11/21/2006 3:16 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

jj said...
"I also guarantee that everything we need to live will get more expensive, and everything we merely want will get cheaper."

Now that's an interesting comment. Can you say more about why this is so, or link to something, a previous post of your own or anything else you know, that does? Thanks.

I'm no expert, but I would guess the reason is that in the invent of scarce wealth, there is more demand for the necessities than for the wants. So in order to off-load the wants, the merchant drops prices. But the needs have no problem finding buyers, so prices increase. That's my guess, anyway.

11/21/2006 1:26 PM  
Anonymous stickler said...

Mitchell Friedman:

Your view that the Versailles-mandated reparations were unmanageable is widespread (and this view was first proposed by J.M. Keynes in 1919). But in the years since 1945 it's been rather thoroughly debunked. Germany's economy could have managed the payments, from an economic standpoint.

The real question is: could the fragile German republic have managed the payments from a political standpoint. The answer to that is certainly, "no."

In essence, to paraphrase AJP Taylor, the Allies could have had either:

1) a stable Republic in Germany


2) repayment of a massive reparations bill

...but not both. #1 would have required a certain amount of generosity that the French didn't want to extend, while #2 would have required either Allied occupation of the whole country or acceptance of a dictator (which, of course, they got in 1933 in any case).

11/21/2006 10:16 PM  
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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some argue the inflation in Germany during 20s, Versailles Treaty was instrumental in election of Nazi / Hitler. I hope the Fed Bernanke look at Germany's example in 20s to see the real life impact of inflation.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

there will have to be a fall/softening in the us/european economies and a 'rise' in the eastern enonomies before make it more acceptable...bor said so long ago

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