"Far Enough To Allow Time For Action"

A story from last week that didn't get enough attention:

Iran will have its first atomic bomb within three or four years if its nuclear weapons programme continues to develop at the current pace, Israel's spy chief Meir Dagan has said.

General Dagan, head of the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, made the comments in an address to parliament's foreign affairs and defence commission, according to military radio.

"If Iran's nuclear programme continues at its current pace, they will succeed in having a bomb within three of four years," Dagan was quoted as telling the commission Monday.

More color from Haaretz:

A senior political source in Jerusalem said Monday that there is plenty of time for diplomatic efforts to effectively block Iran's nuclear program, basing his comments on an assessment by Mossad chief Meir Dagan.

Dagan told the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Iran will be in a postion to build a nuclear bomb by 2009, at the earliest, and rejected talk of "a point of no return," saying that "such a concept does not exist."

"The diplomatic effort to block Iran's nuclear program is far from being over. The threat is close enough to draw attention and yet far enough to allow time for action," the source said.

Remember that Dagan is obviously no shrinking violet on this issue; he's described Iran's nuclear program as "the gravest existential threat to Israel since the founding of the state."

Yes, we can contrast Dagan's "three or four years" with the considerably longer consensus estimate of the U.S. intelligence community. But in one important respect it's a moot point. Combined with these election results in Iran that dealt a major setback to Ahmadinejad, Dagan's comments confirmed what any responsible, clear-thinking observer already knew: Based on current facts and best estimates (and yes, those can change), there can be no justifiable use of military force against Iran during Bush's second term.