Tuesday, December 26, 2006

"Far Enough To Allow Time For Action"

A story from last week that didn't get enough attention:
Iran will have its first atomic bomb within three or four years if its nuclear weapons programme continues to develop at the current pace, Israel's spy chief Meir Dagan has said.

General Dagan, head of the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, made the comments in an address to parliament's foreign affairs and defence commission, according to military radio.

"If Iran's nuclear programme continues at its current pace, they will succeed in having a bomb within three of four years," Dagan was quoted as telling the commission Monday.
More color from Haaretz:
A senior political source in Jerusalem said Monday that there is plenty of time for diplomatic efforts to effectively block Iran's nuclear program, basing his comments on an assessment by Mossad chief Meir Dagan.

Dagan told the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Iran will be in a postion to build a nuclear bomb by 2009, at the earliest, and rejected talk of "a point of no return," saying that "such a concept does not exist."

"The diplomatic effort to block Iran's nuclear program is far from being over. The threat is close enough to draw attention and yet far enough to allow time for action," the source said.
Remember that Dagan is obviously no shrinking violet on this issue; he's described Iran's nuclear program as "the gravest existential threat to Israel since the founding of the state."

Yes, we can contrast Dagan's "three or four years" with the considerably longer consensus estimate of the U.S. intelligence community. But in one important respect it's a moot point. Combined with these election results in Iran that dealt a major setback to Ahmadinejad, Dagan's comments confirmed what any responsible, clear-thinking observer already knew: Based on current facts and best estimates (and yes, those can change), there can be no justifiable use of military force against Iran during Bush's second term.

36 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Based on current facts and best estimates (and yes, those can change), there can be no justifiable use of military force against Iran during Bush's second term.

Which of course, as we all know, is we're going in.

12/26/2006 7:40 AM  
Blogger copy editor said...

There is also this report to consider.

12/26/2006 10:57 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bush creates his own reality and we pay dearly for it.

12/26/2006 11:17 AM  
Blogger Azael said...

In 2002 and the first quarter of 2003, Bush had no case for millitary action against Iraq. That didn't stop him.

Really, I wonder why anyone even wastes the breath any more, except to perhaps place a foot note in history so that future historians will have plenty of material for their writings of these last eight years.

These guys are going to do whatever they want to do. They don't need no stinkin' badges.

12/26/2006 12:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

These guys are going to do whatever they want to do.

Exactly--King Bush is going to do whatever he damn well pleases, no matter what anyone else tells him.

12/26/2006 1:13 PM  
Anonymous semper fubar said...

Of course what none of this says anywhere is that "Iran's nuclear program as the gravest existential threat to the UNITED STATES since the founding of the state."

Because it simply isn't.

Not that that would stop Bush from committing the US to war with Iran.

12/26/2006 1:34 PM  
Anonymous Norm204 said...

Can't see past your noses. No one is going to invade Iran. On the other hand, because of our presence, Iran is not going to militarily threaten its neighbors.
Or have you not noticed that Iran is buying Russian military equipment like hot dogs at Coney Island. Thank you President Bush for protecting the natural resources we need so I, my family, and the myopic posters could continue to live in high style. Of course, if we did not have the natural resources, and our economy dived into the trash bin...these same myopic people would hate Bush because he did not do enough. I got a hybrid...bet my bottom dollar you people drive SUVs.

12/26/2006 2:12 PM  
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Disels are more efficient than hybrids and on teh avergae about $3000 cheaper per engine per vehilce. Also, they do not arry all that battery mass and thus are more practical fro high-way driving.

12/26/2006 2:30 PM  
Anonymous Mayo said...

Thank you so very much President Bush...
For committing us to a war that we needn't have pursued with a policy of wasting natural resourses that we don't have.

12/26/2006 2:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

correct of course, but "can be" and "will be" are two different things, now more than ever.

12/26/2006 2:38 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

That's very interesting indeed. Everything that I've heard up until this point (from the Israeli side) would suggest otherwise. I wonder, did he make a distinction between the point at which they have enriched enough Uranium to the point at which they have developed a deliverable weapon?

Regardless, I still believe that the Administration will attack Iran in the spring-summer timeframe 2007.

Your blog is excellent, especially considering that you're outside of the beltway. I invite you to check out my blog as well as the blog of a friend of mine. As realists, we need to stick together.

Regards,
ed

12/26/2006 7:29 PM  
Blogger kaimu said...

ALOHA !!

It is as simple as ... WE CAN NO LONGER AFFORD OUR OWN GOVERNMENT! We cannot afford the Democrats and we cannot afford the Republicans, expecially the Republicans!

The Iraq and Afghan Wars were fiscally irresponsible and netted the USA no real return on our investment and never will!

Look what we got for Vietnam! Some of our biggest trading partners are China, Russia and now Vietnam ... all communist! So much for the Domino Theory ...

What good is a War On Terror when we are bankrupt? The real war should be against BIG GOVERNMENT and the two party aristocracy now in power!

12/26/2006 10:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"...The existence of an accepted external menace, then, is essential to social cohesiveness as well as to the acceptance of political authority. The menace must be believable, it must be of a magnitude consistent with the complexity of the society threatened, and it must appear, at least, to affect the entire society..." [lewin]

12/27/2006 12:45 AM  
Anonymous Norm204 said...

Hang those in Congress who promised the American people freedom from the dependance on foreign oil in 1973. I had an even numbered plate and stood on line for hours. Took a day trip and carried a full five gallon container of gas with me, just in case. Until we find people to represent us who will not be purchased by big oil, we will have to protect our natural resources with military means. The cost of the military is peanuts...yes, peanuts compared to the loss to the economy of a shortage of oil. Stop electing the same idiots back to Congress!!!! Ten years is all we need to say good-bye to foreign oil...then we could tell the Wahabis, the Persians, and the rest to go fuck themselves.

12/27/2006 1:03 PM  
Anonymous Amy said...

If Bush continues to treat Iran this way, they may not even wait for 3-4 years for their own nuclear weapons to be ready...they could purchase it from countries like North Korea which have readily available weapons, and which also hate Bush's guts.

12/27/2006 1:54 PM  
Anonymous Mr. Hedley Bowes said...

It seems anonymous is referring to this Lewin:

The Report From Iron Mountain
A Satirical Indictment of RANDthink
by Leonard Lewin

"The organizing principle of any society is for war. The basic authority of a modern state over its people resides in its war powers."


Respecting arguments on big government, and with the intent of positing a zero-sum model for changing monetary resource allocation, here's a quick alternative snapshot:

This morning I did a thumbnail calculation of infrastructure projects in my home state that will require funding in the next 5 years. Some of these projects have been in planning for decades, others are replacement costs of infrastructure that has outlived its design life by decades (think of the Nimitz Freeway collapse in the last major San Francisco quake.)

In my state, there are at least $30 billion dollars in basic infrastructure projects that require funding in the next 5 years. These projects are all transportation related, about half of them are designed to reduce use on single passenger commutes, thereby reducing global warming factors. These projects do not include other basic investments such as utilities, education or health care, or other forward looking infrastructure such as alternative energy.

The state I live in ranks in the top 33rd percentile by population. Of the top 20 states by population, my state represents 2.7% of 235 million population. Using these crude numbers as a guide, I come up with a figure of around $1.1 trillion (current net cost, non-amortized) in potential transportation infrastructure investment over the next 5 years for the top 20 states (by population) alone: $222 million a year.

Currently, half of these funds are being wasted in Iraq. The other half are being wasted on the model that creates situations like Iraq.

As a taxpayer, an armchair economist, and an observer of investment markets, I'd feel much better if U.S. policy were more focused on productive domestic investment rather than using dollars to create mortar holes, unchecked death and ever bigger diplomatic and energy resource problems.

12/27/2006 3:11 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,421888,00.html

12/27/2006 6:52 PM  
Anonymous Davebo said...

they could purchase it from countries like North Korea which have readily available weapons

Not sure about that, but Afghanistan certainly does. And a history of sharing.

12/27/2006 8:42 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We're moving another carrier group to the Persian Gulf and Bush wants a "temporary" increase in troops in Iraq. Why? Because we're going to bomb Iran's nuclear sites in spring or summer. Yes, people, it makes no sense, but Bush will say it was to stop Iran from getting the bomb, just like Bush did with Iraq and North, oh, never mind.

Why would he do such a stupid act? Saudi Arabia as already threatened publicly to back Sunnis in Iraq if the U.S. pulls out. Bush doesn't want to offend his longtime family friends. More than likely, Israel also has told Bush that they're going to bomb Iran. Bush will step in and do it for them, even though it's not in our interests to do so.

Mark these words.

-- Cassandra

12/30/2006 12:19 PM  
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