Tuesday, April 22, 2008

That Worked Out Well

Larry Kudlow, National Review, 11/16/04:

With the reelection of President George W. Bush, cowboy capitalism will continue and then some. Pro-growth policies on tax reform, Social Security reform, tort reform, and energy reform will all keep the capital in capitalism. Watch the U.S economy continue to outperform the other large industrial countries by a wide margin, as it has since Reagan.

Which brings us back to the dollar. In order to get a piece of Bush’s ownership-society vision, foreign investors are going to have to buy dollars, not sell them. ...

In narrower terms, the current guardian of dollar value is Maestro Alan Greenspan. He has spent a distinguished career at the Fed protecting greenback purchasing power and holding down domestic inflation. For those proliferating dollar bears on Wall Street, including a number of supply-siders who have turned into inflationist worrywarts, do you really think Greenspan is about to reverse his long-held convictions? Only a few years ago the rap against Sir Alan was deflation. Having corrected that mistake, do you really think he’s embarked on a massive inflation? Highly doubtful. ...

...the Fed will gradually remove the excess dollars they appropriately created following the dreadful 9/11 attacks on the U.S. As they remove this emergency liquidity and as pro-growth tax cuts are made permanent in Bush’s second-term tax-reform program, the future value of the U.S. dollar is likely to rise, not fall. ...

The liberal chattering pundits of the old established media will continue to prattle on about budget deficits, trade deficits, a weak dollar, higher inflation, and a jobless recovery. But America’s economic future is vastly more optimistic than these negativists would have us believe. Both politics and policy are pointing toward non-inflationary prosperity. The U.S. dollar will share in this bounty.

Well, at least nobody reads National Review for its economic analysis.

Listen, this blog is going to start calling out this sort of stuff much more aggressively. I'm not a big fan of "archive gotcha." But for gurus and pundits with inexplicably high profiles who hold themselves out as worth listening to, past predictions are fair game -- particularly if they can impact readers'/viewers' financial health. By the way, I won't exclude myself from the microscope; watch for a report card on my own predictions soon.


Blogger Ho Chi Minh said...

Amen, brother! Calling these lying hacks out on their own mendacity is the only way to beat them at their own game. How much longer will these charlatans be allowed to propagate this crap before this nation wakes up? You are on the front lines CR! Keep up the good work.

4/22/2008 9:48 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not a big fan of "archive gotcha." But for gurus and pundits with inexplicably high profiles who hold themselves out as worth listening to, past predictions are fair game -- particularly if they can impact readers'/viewers' financial health.

Well God knows the corporate media isn't gonna do it. Besides, early on it was apparent that one of the central benefits of the net is that gasbags like Kudlow, Kristol, Kagan, etc. can no longer count on their lies essentially disappearing down the memory hole, accessible only through tedious archive searches. So yeah, keep at it, CR!
-- sglover

4/22/2008 11:46 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You mean Kudlow isn't so much an economic analyst as a cheerleading partisan hack? How disappointing.

4/22/2008 12:19 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Listen, this blog is going to start calling out this sort of stuff..."


4/22/2008 2:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's unfair to pick on Kudlow since he doesn't know what he is talking about. Take this:

The Fed will gradually remove the excess dollars they appropriately created following the dreadful 9/11 attacks on the U.S

How was the Fed going to withdraw the dollars? It's insane. Which dollars? They ones that China takes from their exporters and then prints RNB's and then uses the same dollars to buy Treasury and agency paper. Were they going to sell their entire System Open Market account to sop of the excess dollars created here at home?

Please don't pick on Kudlow. Ignore the poor brain damaged by coke fool. (It is little appreciated that huge swaths of our elites were coke heads at one time or another and that there is insidious lasting effect of coke. To wit it makes people blindly self centered and immune to any reality but the one in their head that makes them feel good)

4/22/2008 7:43 PM  
Blogger Jimmy the Saint said...

Krugman mentioned Soylent Green today on his blog. It is here:


4/22/2008 8:06 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A bit off the economic front, but well within this blog's topics. Enjoy.

March 24, 2003
We are about to startle and reorder the world. We are going to win this
thing, and in the winning of it we are going to reinspire civilized
people across the globe. We're going to give the world a lift.

April 7, 2003
The war is almost over and young Americans on the ground have won it,
and they are doing it like Americans of old. With their old sympathy and
spirit, and a profound lack of hatred for the foe, and with compassion
for the victims on the ground. Iraq, meet the grandchildren of the men
who made the Marshall Plan.

January 30, 2003
The State of the Union was intended to persuade and add more data, which
the president did. He revisited Saddam Hussein's attempts to create and
obtain weapons of mass destruction, and referred to his ties with al
Qaeda. He met Democrats' insistence that he prove that a Saddam move is
"imminent" with the observation that terrorists don't send handwritten
notes announcing they're about to visit. He added to the case against
Iraq in a way that seemed compelling: He was talking to mom and pop at
the kitchen table and telling them that men with histories and
characters like Saddam's don't get their hands on weapons of mass
destruction to do anything with them but hit their enemies--that is,
us--hard. He finished with a vow: We will "disarm" Saddam if he will not
disarm himself. Mr. Bush did not hold out hope on that score, asserting
that trusting Saddam "is not a strategy, and it is not an option."

It is hard to know how many Americans are still open to persuasion on
the subject of an invasion. It is tough to know how hardened positions
are. The new information Mr. Bush offered seemed both believable and
incomplete. The high White House official in the pre-speech interview
made it clear that he wants to release more classified data on Saddam,
and seemed to suggest the data will inform parts of a future Colin
Powell appearance before the Security Council.

Much more at http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/pnoonan/archive/

4/22/2008 9:05 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And yet, Peggy Noonan still has a job.....


4/22/2008 11:45 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why don't you make it hard on yourself and pick out when Kudlow has been right.

4/23/2008 9:43 AM  
Blogger LFC said...

Kudlow is proof positive that you don't need to know s*** about s*** to get a job in punditry.

4/23/2008 1:42 PM  
Anonymous lilybart said...

Everyone who was dead wrong about every aspect of the war is still on TV and writing columns.

So why not in finance too? Amazing though because we may argue what success is in Iraq, but 10-5 is still 5 in finance.

4/23/2008 2:52 PM  
Anonymous Mike said...

There can never be enough people digging and exposing this type of idiocy. And it is a worthy effort because constant exposure of their track record of being totally wrong is what it will take to even have a chance of turning around the general publics information flow toward a more rational viewpoint.

The unfortunate thing is that before there will even be a sliver of change evident, we will all likely be long dead and buried. But for the sake of all of todays toddlers and their children who will be the ultimate victims of the Kudlows and the Noonans, the fight must go on.

Viva la verdad!!

4/24/2008 7:56 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kudlow is still waiting for $25 a barrel oil after our glorious victory in Iraq

4/24/2008 5:23 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kudlow still have the golden touch in 2008 since he started harping on the weak dollar a few weeks ago, roughly coincident with the highs in gold. Every time he says "goldilocks" I want to buy SPY puts, but unfortunately he's not that good at being wrong either.

4/25/2008 5:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

K(r)udlow is nothing but a BushCo/Wall Street/GOP shill. You could take everything he knows and write it on the head of a pin with a Hi-Liter.

4/26/2008 12:24 AM  
Blogger DED said...

I'm not a big fan of "archive gotcha."

I am. As plenty of people have pointed out here in the Comments section, pundits are filling up the airwaves with their know-it-all rhetoric and people sheepishly obey them. "Well so-and-so said it would happen, so it's going to happen." Someone needs to show that these people don't know what they're talking about.

4/29/2008 11:41 AM  
Anonymous Todd said...

CR, can you please look into busting Steve Forbes, the man who called oil a bubble at $60 and insisted over and over on Forbes on Fox that oil would be going back to $30.

5/22/2008 10:36 PM  
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