Thursday, December 07, 2006

The ISG Report, And A Sacrifice Update

I've been busy this week, and I want to read the ISG report before commenting on it. What's important, obviously, is that the ISG's raison d'être is the failure of our current course. As we learn that even senior members of the administration believe we aren't winning (Rumsfeld, and now Gates), the status quo -- represented by increasingly frequent reports like this -- becomes all the more untenable. And as our KIA's approach and then pass 3,000 during the next month or so, intransigence will cease to be a viable option for the White House.


Blogger James Finkelstein (Ga.) said...

December 6, 2006


Yesterday I convened Jim’s Iraq Study Group- there’s only one of me, so it was a short meeting- and we (I) decided on how to rescue our country from the debacle in Iraq. First and foremost, we must throw the report prepared by former Secretary of State James Baker, former Congressman Lee Hamilton, former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, and other “bi-partisan” political luminaries (Vernon Jordan even joined the expedition into the nether regions of the Greatest American Disaster) directly into the trash. Why? Two reasons. Number 1, Bush won’t read it anyway, and even if he does, he won’t implement any of its recommendations. And number 2- more importantly- the recommendations, even if followed, won’t make a damn bit of difference. Nothing they have said is either new or helpful- basically, the Iraq Study group confirmed that the sun rises in the east and that water is wet. Their only potential usefulness will be if Bush were to use them as a fig leaf to get our soldiers out of harm’s way.

My brilliant analysis, based on my ability to read a newspaper and turn on a computer to get the Washington Post and other media online, conjoined with a healthy dose of common sense and an inherent skepticism of those who have fed at the public trough for most of their adult lives, reveals that nothing in the report can change reality on the ground in Iraq. After all, none of these luminaries were out in public arguing against the gross deceptions being perpetrated by the Cheney-Rice-Bush triumvirate during the 2002-2003 runup to the war (“the smoking gun will be a mushroom cloud!”). Even if they supported removing Saddam Hussein, none of them forecast what was going to happen if we invaded Iraq, toppled its government, and allowed its infrastructure and bureaucracy to disintegrate. In stark contrast, thousands of ordinary Americans (including this humble author) put their grey matter to good use and accurately predicted the debacle that would follow a successful invasion. On April 19, 2003, a scant month after the invasion- and two weeks before our incoherent Commander in Chief catapulted onto the carrier Lincoln under a “Mission Accomplished” banner, I wrote the following in an e-mail to one of the family members of a Marine in my son’s unit:

“Why the UN should take over is simple- whether or not they do a better job, the perception among the people in the region will be hugely different regarding a UN sponsored trusteeship of the country. It simply is in our national interest to have a respected international organization take over the rebuilding of Iraq. The sooner American and British soldiers are out of there, the less likely that terrorists or suicide bombers will attack our loved ones there or here. And a quick exit will defeat the absurd arguments that we are a colonialist country seeking to exploit Iraq's oil.”

Would that a high ranking member of the Bush Administration with decision making powers had made the same point and followed through on it. Iraq would not now be in the throes of a civil war, over 2,850 Americans would be alive, another 20,000 would not have been grievously wounded, and tens of thousands (hundreds of thousands?) of Iraqis would be alive to enjoy the fruits of democracy and freedom.

As for the vaunted Iraq Study Group, In spite of their lofty status, their prior government experience (James Baker was Secretary of State!) they are masters of the obvious and little else. Consider this gem of wisdom:

“• Iraq is vital to regional and even global stability, and is critical to U.S. interests.…It has the world's second-largest known oil reserves. It is now a base of operations for international terrorism, including Al Qaeda..”

Now I have a few problems with that paragraph. For starters, Iraq is not now and has never been vital to regional stability, let alone global stability. The country was led by a genocidal madman for decades who used its oil revenues to build palaces, armies, and develop weapons of mass destruction. He started two wars with his immediate neighbors, Iran and Kuwait, in 1981 and 1990, respectively. Yet global stability was never compromised, and unless Saddam wanted to pull a Kim Il Jong, there was no way he was going to sit on Iraq’s oil or Kuwait’s oil. That oil was going to be sold, and probably at below market rate, if we hadn’t imposed sanctions on the country.

As for “now” being a “base of operations for international terrorism,” that doesn’t meant that Iraq is special. The key word is “now”- which is an obvious slap in the face of our clueless President, because “before” (the 2003 invasion) it was the country least involved with terrorism when compared to its immediate neighbors, Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. And once we pull out, Iraq will no longer be a magnet for Islamic jihadists wanting to wage war on the Christian infidels of the West. After we pull out, Iraq will, however, be a magnet for sectarian groups wanting to put their version of Islam on the top of the heap in Baghdad- Shia versus Sunni. That’s a problem of course, but it’s a humanitarian problem for the millions of innocent Iraqi citizens who just want to be left alone and who want to be able to drive on their streets, go to the market, and live their lives without fear of being kidnapped, raped, or murdered. Not unlike Darfur or Somalia, and I am not holding my breath waiting for an American based study commission to return from either of those “vital” areas of “critical” American interests.

My solution? I propose an immediate vote of the people of Iraq on one simple question: do you want a firm timetable for a withdrawal of American troops within six months? Following the overwhelming Iraqi vote for us to leave-- which will give our noble leaders the political fig leaf they crave to avoid being labeled “cut and run” “terrorist aiding” “Defeatocrats”-- we will commence a phased six month pullout of American combat troops from central Iraq- the Sunni triangle- leaving enough troops in the north to protect the Kurds from invasion and in the south to protect the oil fields. As soon as possible (no more than another 12 months) we should replace the remaining American troops with an international peacekeeping force like the one on the Israel-Lebanon border. In central Iraq and Baghdad, we should immediately begin bringing in Arabic speaking Muslim peacekeepers, preferably from our allies Jordan and Egypt, to replace departing American troops. If Jordan or Egypt need extra motivation, in addition to ensuring that they don’t have another Somalia in their midst, we can pay them a few of the billions of dollars which are presently being sucked down the black hole of Iraq. This area is where our religion and our lack of understanding of language, culture, and ethnicity, has cost us lives and the goodwill necessary to do an effective job of peacekeeping.

We should internationalize Iraq’s oil fields, dedicating half of their revenues to rebuilding Iraq- none of which may be used for procuring arms. The money can go to non-governmental aid organizations with a better track record of disbursing aid than the Halliburton Corporation. The other half should go to repay America’s bill for the war and compensate the victims of Saddam Hussein. Whatever else Iraq’s constitution provides, we should tell whatever government ends up holding power that they won’t see a penny of any oil revenues unless their constitution and laws impose requirements on the country that it never have a standing army or air force, that it have a government free of religious influence, and that every person in the country be guaranteed the same rights to free speech, freedom of religion, due process of law, and democracy that we enjoy here. If they want to be uncivilized barbarians, they are free to do so- but they won’t be able to use oil billions to buy expensive toys from arms salesmen with which to threaten their neighbors or anyone else.

12/07/2006 12:37 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

12/07/2006 12:59 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh, please. Can't we just get off this train?

Concerning the ISG's rec that our soldiers convert to a training role: Two of the reasons that we are so behind in training the Iraqis are that our soldiers have never been trained in how to teach anybody anything, and because there are so few effective translators. Meaning that our 'trainers' cannot talk to those they train.

So now we'll have a whole lot of untrained trainers who can't communicate.

How is that going to help?

Our problem is that no one including the vaunted Baker, has the courage to stand up and say this thing is over.

12/07/2006 9:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

12/07/2006 9:29 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Andy Sullivan sez that the ISG report isn't more of the same. That pretty much clinches it for me -- it's absolutely more of the same.

Among other things, the call for a "New Diplomatic Offensive" (gotta be one of the most inspired oxymorons ever) reads to me like absolute wish-thinking. It's like the chronic drunk whose convinced himself that if he can talk to the wife just one more time, she'll ignore this week's black eye and let him back in the house.
-- sglover

12/07/2006 1:24 PM  
Blogger Daniel said...

I'm so happy that someone wants to actually read the report before commenting on it! Thanks for upholding reasoned response!

Yesterday around noon, I looked up the ISG report on Amazon. The report had only been released for an hour, and yet there were already three long comments on it. No way those comments could have been made based on the 160 page report.

Maybe the report is worthless. But it does represent the assessment of a large segment of our foreign policy elite. We should understand it before chucking it.

12/07/2006 2:17 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iraq Study Group (sounds like a High School club) is merely a pawn pretending to be an 'opposition'. The Democrats used to be the 'opposition' but they voted FOR the War in Iraq. However, Iraq is a diversion. As the army attacks Iraq, the US gov't erodes rights at home by suspending habeas corpus, stealing private lands, banning books like "America Deceived" from Amazon, rigging elections, conducting warrantless wiretaps and starting 2 illegal wars based on lies. Soon, another US false-flag operation will occur (sinking of an Aircraft Carrier by Mossad) and the US will invade Iran (on behalf of Israel).
Final link (before Google Books bends to gov't demands and censors the title):
America Deceived (book)

12/07/2006 4:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe the report is worthless. But it does represent the assessment of a large segment of our foreign policy elite. We should understand it before chucking it.

I see your point, but by now the game of "let's divine the real meaning of our overlords' daily posturing" has lost whatever charm it had. This ISG dog'n'pony show includes not one person who had the common sense to see that the Mesopotamian adventure was a bad idea from the start. Not one! And I should run my fingers through their golden turds, simply because of their social status?!?

But here's a line in the report that I think really cuts to what's important:

The United States should assist Iraqi leaders to reorganize the national oil industry as a commercial enterprise, in order to enhance efficiency, transparency, and accountability.

We'll tell the goddam ragheads how to manage their oil. Or at least, we want to. In this area, as in every other, events have far outrun our competence.
-- sglover

12/07/2006 5:30 PM  
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12/07/2006 7:28 PM  
Anonymous George said...

anonymous wrote: The Democrats used to be the 'opposition' but they voted FOR the War in Iraq.

A solid majority of Democrats voted AGAINST the Authorization for Use of Force.

12/07/2006 10:09 PM  
Blogger kaimu said...


George posted:
"A solid majority of Democrats voted AGAINST the Authorization for Use of Force."

Hummmmm ... somehow our military and the neocons in charge got the funds to invade Iraq. How is it again the Democrats did not participate?

Get a clue both parties financed the invasion ... there is no hiding!

Both parties have started useless wars and both parties have printed and spent this country's financial future into oblivion.

Neither party deserves to be in power!

12/08/2006 3:01 AM  
Blogger 277fia said...

I'm not going to read the ISG report because I think it is a publicity stunt. I know more about Iraq than Sandra Day O'Connor.

What I did do is search the report for "corruption". "Corruption" is only cited 15 times throughout the entire 84-page report. In every instance, it refers to corruption on the part of the Iraqis.

Three of the citations refer to ISG recommendations to counter corruption.

One, the Minister of the Interior (that's one with the roving death squads) should put policing funds in the hands of the local government.

Two, the US government should urge the Iraqis to post all oil contracts, volumes and prices on the Web so everyone can track them.

Three, the DOJ should establish courts, train judges, prosecutors, and investigators, and create institutions and practices to fight corruption that are strongly supported and funded. New and refurbished courthouses with improved physical security, secure housing for judges, witness prtoection facilities and a new Iraqi Marshals Service are essential.

The bit about building courthouses really got me. C.R. remember your 9/28/06 post about corruption in Iraq on our part?

From the WaPo:

"A $75 million project to build the largest police academy in Iraq has been so grossly mismanaged that the campus now poses health risks to recruits and might need to be partially demolished, U.S. investigators have found.

The Baghdad Police College, hailed as crucial to U.S. efforts to prepare Iraqis to take control of the country's security, was so poorly constructed that feces and urine rained from the ceilings in student barracks. Floors heaved inches off the ground and cracked apart. Water dripped so profusely in one room that it was dubbed "the rain forest."

"This is the most essential civil security project in the country -- and it's a failure," said Stuart W. Bowen Jr., the special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction, an independent office created by Congress. "The Baghdad police academy is a disaster."

The report serves as the latest indictment of Parsons Corp., the U.S. construction giant that was awarded about $1 billion for a variety of reconstruction projects across Iraq. After chronicling previous Parsons failures to properly build health clinics, prisons and hospitals, Bowen said he now plans to conduct an audit of every Parsons project."

Why would I waste my time reading the ISG study report when the ISG overlooks one of the major causes of our failure in Iraq - pervasive corruption on the part of the US government and private contractors?

12/08/2006 4:23 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

12/08/2006 2:36 PM  
Blogger 277fia said...

Oops! The ISG recommends that the Iraqis to take the authority over policing funds away from the local governments and give it to the Minstry of the Interior (the one with the roving death squads).

12/08/2006 4:11 PM  
Anonymous George said...

kaimu wrote:Hummmmm ... somehow our military and the neocons in charge got the funds to invade Iraq. How is it again the Democrats did not participate?

The Republicans were in the majority in both houses. In the house, Republicans voted: Yes: 215, No: 6. The Democrats voted: Yes: 81, No 126. So even if every single Dem voted No, there were still enough Rep votes to pass it. The Republicans have beaten the Democrats over the head for years with the "soft on defense" charge. Given that, and given that their votes wouldn't change the outcome, I'm not surprised that 81 Dems voted Yes. I am not happy, and I would not vote for those Dems, but I am not surprised. The situation was similar in the Senate.

Iraq is a Republican War.

12/08/2006 9:14 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reuter had the following:

WASHINGTON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Among the 1,000 people who work in the U.S. Embassy in Iraq, only 33 are Arabic speakers and only 6 speak the language fluently, according to the Iraq Study Group report released on Wednesday.

"All of our efforts in Iraq, military and civilian, are handicapped by Americans' lack of knowledge of language and cultural understanding," the bipartisan panel said in its report. "In a conflict that demands effective and efficient communication with Iraqis, we are often at a disadvantage."

Can someone please tell me just how serious is a government when most of the people serving there is an offical capacity CANNOT speak the language in some fashion and probably after 3 years does not UNDERSTAND its culture?

What is the quip - they should learn English so that they can talk to us, even if we are in THEIR country.

The arrogance of our government is beyond comprehension. But what is even worse is that they do not understand the fallout of their action and HAVE NO INTENTION OF CHANGING except for the spin that is their excuse for reality.

We will leave Iraq like we left Viet Nam, only it will be more disasterous and the military corpses that will be left behind in our run to the border will be haunting us for many years to come.

12/09/2006 12:31 PM  
Anonymous Chris said...

Off topic, but I'd be interested in hearing what you make of the Kabuki performance by the SEC enforcers and CYA specialists testifying before Arlen Specter's Senate Judiciary Committee. The show was broadcast on Tuesday on CSPAN (and again today, Sat., which is when I caught it).

The gist of the story is that an SEC insider trading investigation was brought to a screeching halt (and the chief investigator was fired) when the trail led to John Mack, now CEO of Morgan Stanley but better known for his massive fundraising for Bush. Specter and Grassley gave good impressions of senior senators getting very pissed off because they can see that they are being bamboozled by the SEC and the DOJ, both an insult and, as they pointed out, a dangerous precedent.

Here's one side of the story:

This case has interesting implications for the integrity of financial markets and the future prospects of whistleblowers. Does anyone on Wall Street care about either?

12/09/2006 4:09 PM  
Anonymous Chris said...

Well, I just went back to look at Aguirre's testimony again and Marketwatch's link doesn't work any more.

Too bad. It was a good read, full of damning evidence that, if true, shows that the tentacles of the Bush/Cheney criminal enterprise reach into every nook and cranny of the people's government.

Maybe Arlen Specter will convince the Democrats to take over the investigation.

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