The Madman Theory

"I call it the madman theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe that I've reached the point that I might do anything to stop the war. We'll just slip the word to them that, 'for God's sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can't restrain him when he's angry -- and he has his hand on the nuclear button' -- and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace."

Richard Nixon to H.R. Haldeman, 1969


I was reminded of Nixon's unique negotiating strategy as I read the following in The Sunday Times:

Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons.

Two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using low-yield nuclear "bunker-busters", according to several Israeli military sources.

The attack would be the first with nuclear weapons since 1945, when the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Israeli weapons would each have a force equivalent to one-fifteenth of the Hiroshima bomb.

The plans, disclosed to The Sunday Times last week, have been prompted in part by the Israeli intelligence service Mossad’s assessment that Iran is on the verge of producing enough enriched uranium to make nuclear weapons within two years.

Israeli military commanders believe conventional strikes may no longer be enough to annihilate increasingly well-defended enrichment facilities. Several have been built beneath at least 70ft of concrete and rock. However, the nuclear-tipped bunker-busters would be used only if a conventional attack was ruled out and if the United States declined to intervene, senior sources said.

Quite a "scoop" for Rupert Murdoch's Sunday Times, eh? A few things are interesting here. First, note the "two years" time frame being peddled now. Isn't it uncanny how Iran has managed to synchronize its nuclear program with the U.S. electoral system? Second, Iran must have made stunning progress in that program since...ummm...late December, when Mossad head Meir Dagan said it would take Iran "three or four years" and that "a point of no return does not exist" (my post on that is here). Third, now that Israel's shouting from the rooftops that it may have to use nuclear weapons (if the U.S. fails to act!), a conventional U.S. strike on Iran would seem almost "reasonable" -- as if cooler heads had prevailed by keeping both nukes and Israel out of the picture. To the extent Israel intended the Sunday Times report as a warning, one might wonder whom Israel is "Madmanning" here -- the Iranians or us? Or both?

Whatever the answer, those tempted to ascribe the growing Israeli (and U.S.) "chatter" about Iran to faux-brinksmanship or negotiating bluster should remember that the Madman Theory, unfortunately, isn't quite as theoretical as it used to be.