Tuesday, December 04, 2007

The New NIE On Iran

It confirms what I've posted here many times and what any credible observer has long known: there can be no justifiable use of military force against Iran during the Bush presidency. That's never changed, breathless five-minutes-to-midnight alarums from the usual suspects aside.

Moreover, the NIE indirectly backs up my statements from the past few years about the real reason for those alarums. Revisiting a few posts, this one from October:
Statists hate pressure, but they fear consequences -- particularly when the culpability is both obvious and unavoidable. This is why keeping Iran as an ever-ready trump card is so important. If those consequences get bad enough and no excuse will do, the use of force must be at least minimally plausible to the public and the rest of the world.
Another:
If a U.S. attack on Iran happens during this administration, it won't be an act of the White House, neocons, or Republican party. And if it doesn't happen before January '09 and something magically comes along after that to make it "necessary" it won't be an act of the Democrats. It'll be the culture, the establishment....This is deeper than either partisan politics or a weapons program that might produce a nuke three or five or ten years from now.
Deeper, indeed. It's never really been about nukes. The bad news is the underlying exigencies of the "great game" are still there. The NIE doesn't change that.

So what's next? Remember, in January 2003, desperately seeking a casus belli, the White House secretly proposed painting a U.S. spy plane in the colors of the United Nations, hoping that Saddam would then shoot at it (why has this never gotten much attention?). Because the new NIE takes any unprovoked strike against Iran off the table (except for the real batshit brigade, I suppose), any contingency plans to induce a Persian provocation will probably get a higher priority now. You don't expect this bunch to give up so easily, do you?

7 Comments:

Blogger Spider said...

Grrr...damn you for being right! Again!

Actually, I've been agreeing with you all along. Odd, don't you think? A real liberal progressive agreeing with most of the stuff that a conservative blogger has to say. But we're supposed to be political enemies if you believed the media.

Speaking of them. I bet they won't play this article up as much as it should. I didn't hear ANYTHING about it last night on the 11pm news here in NY. You'd think stuff like this would get major air time in the night time news on ABC, CBS, NBC. No!!! They waste air time with a story about firefighters in Ohio rescuing a dog from a fire. WTF?!!! That didn't even happen here in NYC?!! Why is that news here?

Well, at least when the "The Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act", HR 1955 passes in the Senate you and I will be both labeled as terrorists because of the things written in our blog that criticize the government. (I mean, TCR, do you think they'll tolerate all the times you've called bullshit on their plans to attack Iran?) Maybe we'll end up in the same detention camp. Actually, a lot of the people who comment here would end up there too. We can keep each other company.

See you then!

12/04/2007 8:06 AM  
Anonymous goldhorder said...

great post...yes, nothing like the "liberal" war hating media. LOL. Nothing like "liberal"candidate Hillary Clinton #1 in Defense Industry contributions. Crazy world we live in. People choose not to see their nose in front of their faces. Hornberger posted a great article on Lew's site today. The distance we have traveled from the time we really were a great country.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/hornberger/hornberger139.html

12/04/2007 9:03 AM  
Anonymous goldhorder said...

great post...yes, nothing like the "liberal" war hating media. LOL. Nothing like "liberal"candidate Hillary Clinton #1 in Defense Industry contributions. Crazy world we live in. People choose not to see their nose in front of their faces. Hornberger posted a great article on Lew's site today. The distance we have traveled from the time we really were a great country.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/hornberger/hornberger139.html

12/04/2007 9:03 AM  
Blogger Jimmy the Saint said...

Spider:
You aren't the only liberal progressive. ;-)

12/04/2007 10:37 AM  
Anonymous Cheryl said...

I think there are a lot of progressives here. I read (and comment) because I *want* to be able to have a dialog with people I disagree with and not have it turn into a bunch of name-calling and outright lies.

In other words, I miss Republicans like Lowell Weicker.

12/04/2007 12:55 PM  
Anonymous Thomas Daulton said...

I'm a flaming liberal and I post here often. Maybe I'm just biased in favor of prose I like reading. But I suspect TCR's readership is not limited to one partisan group because the things he says simply make logical sense. When he says he is a "conservative", he is not using it as a political buzzword shorthand for a constellation of aggressive and unrelated political positions. He means he is actually trying to conserve and preserve something... [sanity? fiscal sense? truth?] ...in contrast to most everyone else who uses the word.

12/04/2007 6:24 PM  
Anonymous goldhorder said...

I'm an anachro-capitalist with some sympathies for the paleo-conservatives. The 4 sites I never miss are lewrockwell.com (home), amconmag.com(paleo), commondreams.org(usually well written progressive point of view), counterpunch.org (left-libertarian). I enjoy reading anything written and well thought out. What is missing from these sites is the mindless smears and shouting...or the paid hacks...shilling for special interests. This is all the main stream news is anymore Conservative or Liberal. Ideas are not discussed and examined ...not sure they ever where in our lifetimes...but I believe they used to at least pretend.

12/06/2007 7:50 PM  

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