Thursday, November 03, 2005

35%

That's Bush's latest approval rating, from this CBS News poll.

This is an extraordinarily unpopular executive-in-chief. Any lower, and his approval rating will approach the margin of error of Nixon's at the height of Watergate. As a sidenote, Nixon's approval rating never fell below the mid-high 20's according to most polls, even as he was flashing the double victory signs to stunned aides and boarding Chopper One for the trip to exile in San Clemente---proving that a president can do just about anything and there will always be many millions of people who will support him. If these people did not exist, I suspect late-night infomercials would not be so enormously profitable.

Much has gone wrong recently for this administration, of course. But I strongly believe the old political adage that people vote their wallets. When those wallets are thin, approval ratings take a hit. To me, the decline to 35% reflects this at least as much as it does Plamegate, Iraq, Miers and Katrina. As serious as Plamegate is to those who are politically aware, let's face it: to most people, this is still somewhat of an inside-the-Beltway story about some guy named Scooter who they had never heard of until a few weeks ago. (Interestingly, this scandal is paralleling Watergate in many ways, particularly with the rolling revelations and the initial insulation of the president from any hint of wrongdoing. Remember, Nixon was overwhelmingly re-elected even after Watergate broke as a story.) Iraq? 2,000 dead was a headline, but I don't think it convinced many supporters of the war's prosecution that things have suddenly gone bad. Miers? This hurt Bush mainly among his conservative base, and according to the CBS poll an equal number of people approved of her as disapproved with most not having an opinion. And Katrina? Bush's approval rating was 10 points higher at the height of that mess.

So we come back to wallets. The CBS poll indicates that Bush's approval rating on the economy has risen over the past month. But I've always been extremely suspicious of the results from polling the public about personal finances. I think many people are reluctant to tell a stranger on the phone that they're not confident about their own financial situation---partially as a result of either inherent optimism or denial, and partially out of the desire for privacy. If my skepticism is warranted, what does 35% imply about both the administration's "all is well" feel-good mantra on the economy and the continuing interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve?

One potential positive for Bush: according to this concurrent CBS News poll, 48% of Americans believe in ghosts. So the "Casper Block"---a segment of the country long coveted by desperate politicians---certainly is alive and well.

71 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Two more indicators how much trouble the prez is in

This from Josh Marshall had over at TMP
Raleigh News & Observer, Oct. 29th: "President Bush's approval rating in North Carolina continues to decline, according to a poll released Friday by Elon University. The poll found that 41 percent of those questioned approve of Bush's handling of the job of president. That is down from 45 percent in a poll Elon did in April and 52 percent from a poll the university did in March."

And then there is this from over at the Bulldog Manifesto.
U.S. MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM
War in Iraq 21%
Economy and jobs 17%
Terrorism 5%
Education 4%
Gas/oil crisis 4%
Health care 4%
President Bush 4%
http://bulldogpolitics.blogspot.com/

11/03/2005 10:23 AM  
Anonymous Mike said...

13% of the country believes in ghosts but does NOT believe that King George is doing a good job. Sounds like bad news for Bush!

11/03/2005 11:00 AM  
Blogger copy editor said...

Great juxtaposition.

11/03/2005 11:57 AM  
Blogger Jake said...

I think you're wrong here, CR, at least about how important the people consider the Plame business to be.

A CBS poll found that 51% of the public considers the Plame affair to be of graet importance, another 35% of some importance. Those numbers, combined, are even higher than they were for Watergate (in 5/73).

11/03/2005 12:43 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Absolutely excellent video clip from Boston Legal.

"We talk about honoring our soldiers, well how about giving a damn when they're killed…The American public is more concerned about whether or not Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie are a couple…"

"...does not exempt the military from a duty of being honest to it's soldiers...

Sent with:
-insufficient backup
-untrained for tasks
-wasn't provided with basic equipment

Never assumed those risks by enlisting: overextended, under-equipped, nontrained,

And, no one seems to give a damn..."

Sometimes it isn't the "what", but the "how"...

11/03/2005 1:11 PM  
Anonymous JWC said...

My husband agrees that Plamegate is mostly an inside politics thing that does not mean anything to the average voter. And he keeps saying, over and over, they keep getting elected don't they?

He doesn't believe that Plamegate was not a bad thing, just that voters won't care. To him it is important only in the fact that it shows the incompetence of the administration. And I fume and fuss and want to beat him over the head for saying it.

I am old enough to remember Watergate but was not as much of a political junkie as I am now. So maybe, this will develope as Watergate did, slowly but with growing momentum.

In the meantime, I worry about Iraq, about the budget, about healthcare availability and cost, and most of all the future we are leaving for my grandkids. And if Plamegate makes a crack in the political machine that is running Washington, well maybe there is a Karma after all.

And I do give a damn about our boys and girls being sent to Iraq on false pretenses without adequate training and equipment and then coming home crippled and traumatized to inadequate support and health care. All the while our government talks about more tax cuts for the wealthy.

11/03/2005 1:42 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think you underestimate the number of people for whom "Plamegate, Miers, Iraq & Katrina" ARE pocketbook issues, or potential pocketbook issues. My non-political internet reading is mostly doll-collector boards, a demographic largely female, over 30, middle-class & middle-income, and geographically dispersed. Everyone, from every part of the country, is worried about the economy; even if they or their husbands aren't unemployed or fearful of immanent unemployment, their neighbors are unemployed, their grown kids can't find jobs, their church group's food pantry is helping people who were the biggest donors a year or two ago. From this bottom-up perspective, Katrina really did influence the whole country -- people here in the Northeast are sharing their homes with family members who can't go back to the Gulf Coast because, even if they had a house to return to, they wouldn't have a job so they could keep up the mortgage payments. People in Denver are out of work because their software contracting jobs in Mississippi have been cancelled. People in the Cascades are cutting back on discretionary spending (like doll purchases) because their son is doing his second Reserve shift in Iraq, & that means grandma will have to be Santa Claus in Atlanta again this year. Gas prices at the pump may be down a smidge, but everybody who's still got a job is commuting further. The MSM is letting us all know that home heating costs are going to skyrocket whether we use oil, natural gas, or electricity -- and every forecaster from the wooly-bear caterpillars to the National Science Institute is predicting a long winter full of ugly random storms. And, at the very time we most need to believe that our government is strong, honest, and committed to helping us all, it's becoming VERY clear, even to people who are proud of "not following politics", that many of our elected officials are weak, disorganized, venal, dishonest, self-centered, and/or incapable. There may be a solid base of individuals who don't care what "the government" might be up to as long as they're doing okay financially -- but nobody wants to be featured on the news sitting in an overcrowded Red Cross shelter waiting for relief trucks that may not arrive, and it's becoming obvious to even the least politically-minded Americans that we're none of us entirely safe from starring in such a cameo. -- Anne Laurie

11/04/2005 2:56 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The first inaugural Bush said: "We must always ask ourselves not only what is legal, but what is right."

11/04/2005 12:51 PM  
Blogger Spider said...

In my journal, the day after election day 2004, I wrote the prediction that we will see riots in the streets in 2006 that will make the LA riots after Rodney King look like child's play.

With Bush's falling ratings and the gross mismanagement by his Adminstration and the Republican controlled Congress, I'd say that my prediction is right on track to happen. We are seeing the breeding grounds now. Just wait until his approval ratings sink into the mid to low 20's.

11/04/2005 1:37 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fortunately Bush does not make decisions based on polls.

Now not only do we have many on the left and some to the right cutting our legs out from beneath we have, presumably a lefty, cheering on riots in the streets.

11/12/2005 5:09 PM  
Blogger Spider said...

Hi Anonymous,

Did you read what I wrote?!!! I didn't say I was cheering the riots on, I just predicted that they would happen! Do you actually think I enjoy my country going to crap? C'mon, I may be a liberal but I'm not an anarchist.

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