SOTU Showcase Showdown
President Bush's State of the Union address is this Tuesday night. If Vegas offered a line on how many times the president uses a variation of the word "terror", I'd take the over. Alas, there's no such bet currently available in Sin City (yes, I checked) so we'll set it up here. Having run all potential permutations, iterations, and obfuscations through a rigorous and highly proprietary analysis, the TCR over/under is 19 uses of terror/terrorism/terrorists.
Readers are welcome to post predictions in the comments section. The one who comes closest without going under---sort of an inverted "Price is Right" twist appropriate for a one-issue president with a 40% approval rating---wins a public acknowledgment in this space.
Readers are welcome to post predictions in the comments section. The one who comes closest without going under---sort of an inverted "Price is Right" twist appropriate for a one-issue president with a 40% approval rating---wins a public acknowledgment in this space.
posted by The Cunning Realist at Sunday, January 29, 2006
70 Comments:
You count ... I'm going to be "doing my nails" !
SOTU = 17 mentions of some version of terror.
3 = commander-in-chief
5 = 9/11
7 = security
9 = plan
15 times.
Previous poster's subheadings are great.
I know this one's a bit long, but two years ago I had some fun (!) with the same type of analysis. anyoneelse.org sent me a bumper sticker for my trouble:
by James Finkelstein
Used by permission. Originally published in the Albany Journal.
Sometimes what politicians don't say reveals more than what they do talk about in their speeches. Here's a rundown on President Bush's January 20, 2004 State of the Union Address, using a global search, placed in context with some matters he chose not to mention:
* 0 Mentions of any weapons of mass destruction found in Iraq;
* 1 Use of the phrase "weapons of mass destruction" in the same sentence with the word "Iraq" ("... already the Kay Report identified dozens of weapons of mass destruction-related program activities and significant amounts of equipment that Iraq concealed from the United Nations.");
* 3 days after President Bush's State of the Union speech that David Kay resigned, stating "I don't think they existed,... What everyone was talking about is stockpiles produced after the end of the last (1991) Gulf War, and I don't think there was a large-scale production program in the '90s,"
* 21 times President Bush mentioned tax cuts or tax relief, including proposals which would reduce taxes on corporations earning more than $10 billion annually, reduce taxes on persons with incomes over $10 million annually, eliminate virtually all taxes for multimillionaires and billionaires whose primary income is from stock dividends and stock sales, and end all taxes on estates worth over one million dollars (estates under one million are already exempt);
* 0 mentions of the fact that while under President Bush's proposals a typical wage earning taxpayer would get less than $500 in net annual tax relief, those earning a million dollars or more will save an average of $100,000 a year;
* 0 mentions that for an American family of four $8,000 will be their additional burden in national debt borrowed by the government in 2004 to fund tax cuts and the war in Iraq;
* 0 mentions that costs of the war in Iraq were supposed to be repaid from oil revenues from Iraqi wells;
* 0 mentions of the hundreds of billions of dollars needed to fulfill President Bush's recent promise to go to Mars and the Moon;
* 0 mentions of the national debt- which increased by $1.33 trillion dollars in the 3 years since President Bush took office to $7,002,877,924,418.81 on January 16, 2004, and is now rising at a rate of $1.5 billion dollars a day, $545 billion a year;
* 1 promise to cut the annual $545 billion dollar "deficit" (not the debt) in half in five years- which would still allow for an additional $2.5 trillion dollars in debt;
* 0 mentions of President Bush's prediction from his 2002 State of the Union speech that "the deficit will be small and short term."
* 0 days President Bush would have left in office five years from now if he wins reelection in 2004 but fails to reduce the deficit as promised;
* 9 mentions of marriage and Federal laws about marriage that discriminate against gays;
* 0 mentions of laws needed to protect gays from employment discrimination or hate crimes;
* 1 mention of a proposed constitutional amendment to prohibit any State's citizens from voting to allow gay couples the same rights as married couples ("... the only alternative left... would be the constitutional process. Our Nation must defend the sanctity of marriage.")
* 0 mentions of a proposed constitutional amendment to balance the budget, a plank in the Republicans' "Contract for America" when they took control of the House and Senate in 1994;
* 1 mention of health care centers established in Iraq, paid for by U.S. taxpayers;
* 0 proposals to provide government funded health care centers for the 41 million Americans, including 12 million children, who lack any coverage;
* 0 mentions of the fact that more than 500 American servicemen and women had died in Iraq since the last State of the Union address (and more than 2,900 were wounded);
* 0 mentions that 363 Americans had died since May 1, 2003, when President Bush declared major combat operations over in Iraq;
* 0 funerals of American soldiers attended by President Bush, before or after May 1st;
* 44 fund raisers attended by President Bush in a seven month period after he declared major combat operations over in Iraq, during which he raised $112 million dollars for his reelection campaign.
http://www.anyoneelse.org/bythenumbers.html
I'll take 17 terrors and 3 9/11s.
Oh yeah. I almost forgot:
I'll go with 17 mentions of terrorism, terrorists, the war on terror, specific terrorists they've captured (the #3 man's been caught oh, about 97 times now).
And one mention of "It's hard, hard work..."
Wait, I just noticed that 17's been taken. I'll go with 16, then. Anybody got 16 yet?
22
21 (3 x 7 : they're such religious numbers and you just know the Shrub must be feeling the need for prayer these days.
Oh, and 14 "9/11's". And 427 "freedoms".
29.
terror(ism)(ists) = 25
fear = 6
threat(s) = 12
bourbons [for me] = 5
32..."the American people" fill in the blank.
As if this war criminal speaks for me and my husband.
And Osama, your life is assured with the Republicans.
"thuh 'merican people gotta unnerstand" = 4
(adding to my tally)
Damn, Roper took my number. I actually think he is going to hit 30, but I want 29.
5 9/11s.
10 terrorism/terrorists/terror.
7 freedom or liberty.
2 commander-in-chief.
specially for Walt- try not to let your head explode:
"Wanted: Dead or Alive
Bush Reasserts Demand to Afghans:
Turn Over Bin Laden
ABCNEWS.com
Sept. 17 — President Bush Monday repeated his vow to track down Osama bin Laden, the prime suspect in last week's terror attacks while Wall Street reopened to its biggest point drop ever.
"I want justice," Bush said. "And there's an old poster out West, I recall, that says, 'Wanted: Dead or Alive.'"
Nearly a week after the assault on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, New York City tried to return to work and the nation braced for the economic impact of the tragedy."
(six months later)
"We haven't heard much from him. And I wouldn't necessarily say he's at the center of any command structure. And, again, I don't know where he is," Bush said during the 2002 news conference. "I'll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him. I know he is on the run.
"I was concerned about him when he had taken over a country," Bush continued. "I was concerned about the fact that he was basically running Afghanistan and calling the shots for the Taliban. But once we set out the policy and started executing the plan, he became - we shoved him out more and more on the margins. He has no place to train his Al Qaeda killers anymore."
Figure an hour speech, so I'm going hight at 45.
Terror, terrorist, terrorism: 21
victory, plan for: 2
Freedom: 13
9/11: 2
terror variations: 26
I'm going with
terror(ism)(ists) = 20
I expect lots of "fully aware's," "fully understand's," all tossed together with a plethora of decide's, decides', decisions', decided's...
But, like the first anonymous post, I'll not have the stomach to watch the contest.
Terrorists (and variations) - 24
They hate freedom - 4
Of course I'll have to rely on the honor system here since I certainly won't be watching. If I feel like watching an imbecile on TV, I'll turn on Homer Simpson.
Terror(ist)(ism): 23
"Our way of life": 2
"Terrorist surveillance" (to defend NSA spying: 4
Words I hope not to hear:
Iran/Tehran, nuclear, Syria
Words I don't expect to hear:
Corruption, scandal, fraud, indictment
Osama
Wiretap
Recession
OK. On to "terror". Let's see...
Terror (-ism, ist)
2002 - 36
2003 - 22
2004 - 19
2005 - 27
Free(-dom)+Liber(-ty, -ation, -ate)
2002 - 21+3
2003 - 10+5
2004 - 19+2
2005 - 26+8
OK I'll be sort of contrarian and go low with terror at "only" 24. Even though it is the one issue that works for Bush, maybe hé 'll try to change the subject, what with Osama's latest tape... But I'd be bullish on secure, defend, protect.
"settle for nothing less than total victory": 2
I'm gonna be contrarian: I don't think he's gonna use "terror" more than about 10 times.
I think "security" will overtake it with at least a dozen mentions. I think some variation on "compassion" will get ten mentions.
And I think he'll finally break down and talk about "sacrifice" at least a dozen times, starting with (non-Sheehan) Gold Star mothers....
I just saw on cable that our local community is offering a two hour training program to all citizens, separate english and spanish classes, which will teach the citizens to watch for road rage, drunk drivers, and terrorism. Equipment will be provided and taken home. This appears to be part of the homeland security funding.
Bush, after 2002 decided to base his Presidency totally on being the war President, so he has to bring it up because he needs support and money. But, I'd do as well at predicting his usage of those terms, as I do in predicting market returns ;-)
I've been hearing one of the main topics is going to be on health saving accounts.
You think he'll mention the major corruption scandals; budget deficits; Global warming; Gulf Cost rebuilding (Katrina); global nuclear disarmament; or alternative energy policy so we can get off of oil?
25 terrors by Bush Junta frontman
http://www.degenerate.com
"connect the dots"
8 times.
That's because that was his favorite activity during his Yale art classes. He still got a 'C'.
Kevin A
Need a rulling: Will "the evildoers" and/or "the evil ones" count as references to terrorism or terrorists?
And can we get a special bet going for the number of times he conflates Iraqi insurgents and the 9/11 attackers?
And I'll take 38, by the way. Desperate people talk louder.
"Ruling." One "l," sorry.
32
er, pass the polish sausage thisaway will ya, I'm starting to feel my heart beat again.....I say, da bears 65 and Bush (terror..) 491, unless of course he gets blindsided by an angry steve mcmichael, in which case I suspect a large enough al qaeda cell will be found in Chicago to warrant the destruction of the city by Donald Rumsfeld. Help us
Ditka, you're our only hope.....
I'm grabbing 35.
Terrorists: 20
Terror: 10
Terrorism: 5
And, just for shits & giggles, a few more:
Nuke-ular: 6
Nuclear: 0
Way of Life: 7
Life: 0
God: 6
America/Americans: 25
Security: 10
Fear: 0
And finally . . . after a hiatus of a couple years, Osama will return with 1 mention.
Terror, Terrorism, evil doers: 24
Iraq is 9/11: 9
Iran: 15
My Job - keep the People safe: 15
the real bet will be any invocation of terror plus the phrase "necessary ... security/safety"
my total for that (like OPS in baseball) is 31.
"keeping Americans safe" or close variations: 7
terror (or however he'll pronounce it) 26 times
I'm more interested in what we'll hear when the State of the Union speech is played backwards.
terror, terrorism, terrorist: 42
"Rejectionist"?
terrorisms (read it like "Bushisms"): 28
Islamofascism/ists: 2
tyranny/ist: 5
democracy/democratic: 15
Katrina: 2
bastard
I'll take
Terror(ist)(ism)/'evil doer' - 32
Hamas - 5
Freedom/Dem - 28
Secure(ity) - 50
Iran - 10
Iraq - 10
Medicare Drug Plan - 5
Connect the Dots - at lest once
and millions of tears and groans from all over the country :-(
He will say a variation on terror (-ist, -ism) every 15 seconds for two 5 minute periods, thus, 40 times. (Figure one 5 minute burst for Iraq/Al Quada combo platter, one for Hamas.) But, I'll add a scattering of 7 extra mentions in the remaining 50 minutes, for a overall total of 47.
He'll say Alito 6 times, as well as point to him and his family sitting with Laura.
I simply answer the question straight. 18. Always was a pessimist.
Terror/Terrorist/terrorism I pick 33 times
14
Aww hell. I was just planning to take a shot of whisky every time Bush either mangled the English language or gave a look that he brain was working way to hard to produce vocal sound. Then I figured I'd be drunk less than ten minutes into it.
My predictions:
25 references to terrorists/terror
14 references to "national security"
10 reference to a "strong" or "stronger economy."
0 - The Senators, from either party, not standing up and clapping during the ovation. How the good Republicans and Democrats can not protest this adminstration at any given moment is incredible. I think there will be people in the House that won't stand.
35 - The percent of voting age Americans who will actually watch the SOTU address. that's just my guess. Does anyone know the real percentage?
13
Chimpy will use the phrase approximately 666 times
Dude, Lymond took my number -- I totally have dibs on 38. Back up off it, yo. I will defend my numerical selection.
I'll just go with the word terror/ terrist in every other sentence.
I'm more curious to find out what his new vo-cab-u-lar-y word will be. One which he will e-nunc-i-ate and then go on to define for us.
Semper fubar nails it cold.
Dang! Now I feel like I must watch so I can revel in the validation of all the predictions.
Or maybe not.
The transcript has been posted of what he's supposed to say.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/01/31/sotu.transcript/index.html
I count 21. TCR was pretty close. Bush may yet space out on a few and come in at 19.
Online debt consolidation information is availiable through many internet sources that specialize in assisting many American households in managing or eliminating their outstanding debt.
Link to this site: irs tax debt settlement help settlement
http://www.improved-credit.com
Are you a japanese business strategies enthusiast? If so here is a fantastic resource for everything related to things about japanese business strategies with information, products, articles and more..Check it out here...corpanalytics.com
Looking for more information on contact ct investor relations ..If so here is a fantastic resource for everything related to contact ct investor relations with information, products, articles and more..Check it out here...corpanalytics.com
I enjoy reading the stories on your site - keep up the great articles! Well done on your good work!
Debt Consolidation Loan Advice
Thanks for all the great comments and insights..By the way, are you looking for more information on e business media strategies ..If so here is a fantastic resource for everything related to business and e business media strategies with information, products, articles and more..Check it out here...corpanalytics.com
thanks
I dig your webpage:)
Sprint PCs Ringtones Download
http://information-hookup.net/
Regards,
Gerald E.
http://information-hookup.net/
Sprint PCs Ringtones Download
Running a business or any complex organization requires the adequate utilization of marketing and contact ct investor relations.
Make sure you find the best software that is available for contact ct investor relations. We suggest you try corpanalytics.com as a resource for this.
I have been following a site now for almost 2 years and I have found it to be both reliable and profitable. They post daily and their stock trades have been beating
the indexes easily.
Take a look at Wallstreetwinnersonline.com
RickJ
Such interesting and informative comments on your site.
If you require some make money work at home info come to my site at http://www.surveyearn.biz/PaidSurveys/Work_at_home.html
A fine blog you have here!!
You are welcome to visit my site http://www.surveyearn.biz/PaidSurveys/Work_at_home.html-work from home mom
This is a great opportunity. Just push a button 4 times per day and make $1,000's per month within one year.
business to business Business Plan - Unique Approaches That Accelerate Your Business Plan
Chronicle Of One Man's Meteoric Rise To Internet Fame and Fortune ... and How You Can Do The Same For Your Business!
If you wanted to learn how to become successful in the online information industry, who would you rather hear from? A "copycat" or the guy who pioneered the system? It's a "no-brainer," isn't it?
Discover the humble beginnings of this info product genius and learn how he overcame the same struggles you are faced with every single day in your online business. In fact, once you read Leap Ahead, you'll marvel at how simple it can be for you!
Take your own "leap of faith". Business Plan business to business
a great opportunity, no selling, no phoning, no recruiting PERIOD!
Cool blog, interesting information... Keep it UP Free ring tones verizon picture of bmw car amino and fatty acids for eczema Hostave2 net homemadevids beach voyeur 119 butalbital erectile dysfunction impotence Scrabble answers Two nexium anxiety disorder and wellbutrin Benzo diazepam urine http://www.lasik-surgey.info/wellbutrin-sr-mg.html patent an idea http://www.vw-thing.info
Post a Comment
<< Home