Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Personal Intelligence Agency Alert

The link to the explanation of the PIA Alert is here. A new PIA Alert was triggered by The New Yorker, which screamed the following on the tear-away cover tease of its March 6 issue: "NEXT STOP IRAN. As Iran becomes a nuclear threat...." We know the U.S. intelligence community's current estimate is that Iran is about a decade away from the ability to produce a nuclear weapon; read about that here. Thus, The New Yorker appears to have its own Personal (or in this case Private) Intelligence Agency, the information from which has caused the magazine to reach a radically different conclusion than the large and well-funded intelligence community that includes the CIA, DIA and NSA. The marketing of Target Iran---the second half of what's so far been a horrible double-feature---continues apace.

(As a sidenote, a series of PIA Alert claxons sounded over the weekend during the Fox News program "Iran and the Bomb." Featuring images of Lenin and a wildly gesticulating Hitler to bolster dark intimations from Donald Rumsfeld and John Bolton, this was about as objective a program as one might expect from this outfit. I was on an airplane and a bit of a captive viewer, so I watched Fox for the first time in many months---a time interval I recommend to those still tuning in regularly for some reason. Fox's popularity is both a measure of our collective gullibility and a black mark on our culture. I suspect that a few decades from now, people will shake their heads in "what were they thinking" amazement just as we snicker about those crude World War II-era propaganda newsreels.)

The New Yorker piece by Connie Bruck contains little information on Iran's actual nuclear program. Instead, it focuses mainly on the efforts of Reza Pahlavi---the Shah's son and a sort of poor man's Ahmad Chalabi---to mobilize resistance to Iran's current government. Bruck describes Reza's association with notorious characters from his father's regime including former SAVAK division head Parviz Sabeti. (By the way, under the category of "you couldn't make this up," apparently Sabeti is a financial supporter of both George Bush and the RNC if the information at this link is correct and it's the same person, currently listed as "self employed" and residing inside a post office box in Florida.) Reza Pahlavi holding himself out to Iranians as a beacon of liberty is a bit like Mussolini's son suddenly showing up in Rome expecting to reinvigorate Italian fascism. As a measure of his credibility and perhaps his delusion, Reza tries to rewrite the history books on his father's tyranny and torture: "Maybe what happened twenty-six years ago is a blessing in disguise. I don't think we could have had the appreciation for democratic values we have come to today. It's by losing democracy that we have come to value it." Incredible, eh? If this is our best prospect for post-Mullah leadership (and Michael Ledeen has argued as much in the past; in this piece he describes Reza as "widely admired inside Iran," and among Ledeen's inimitable "trusted sources" I don't doubt it) then we've got big problems to go with our big cojones.

29 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cheney: Iran Faces 'Meaningful Consequences' if It Doesn't Curb Nuclear Program
Tuesday, March 7, 2006; 5:51 PM

Vice President Cheney threatened Iran today with "meaningful consequences" if it fails to cooperate with international efforts to curb its nuclear program.

"For our part, the United States is keeping all options on the table in addressing the irresponsible conduct of the regime," Cheney said in a speech to the pro-Israel lobby group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. [...]

Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld, speaking at a briefing at the Pentagon, said Iran is "currently putting people into Iraq to do things that are harmful to the future of Iraq. It is something that they, I think, will look back on as having been an error in judgment."

Asked if any Iranian-backed weapons were coming into Iraq, Marine Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, "There have been some IEDs [improvised explosive devices] and some weapons that are traceable back to Iran."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/07/AR2006030700670.html


OK, I get it:

-Iran allegedly supplies / supports Iraq's insurgency

-Iran builds / almost has the Bomb

-Iran wants to make the Euro their oil currency


Looks like we're in for a rough ride, because the crooks in the WH won't shy away from nuking Teheran.

3/07/2006 7:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

They need to divert attention away from the scandals/incompetence.
There's a mid-term, ya know.
Count me at one who thinks they'll do it.

3/07/2006 8:40 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr. Realist (or is it Mr. Cunning?): a quick note to say that I absolutely love your blog. Your "PIA" updates are a lonely attempt to bring some sanity into the Iran discussion. Politically, you are exactly (and consistently) what you say you are- a realist. And, thank god, you write well! Please keep up the good work.

3/08/2006 3:42 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reza Pahlavi holding himself out to Iranians as a beacon of liberty is a bit like Mussolini's son suddenly showing up in Rome expecting to reinvigorate Italian fascism.
Analogy Alert
Mussolini's granddaughter, Alessandra Mussolini, was elected to the Italian Parliament as a member of MSI, the heir to the Fascist party. I guess this means the Iranians will be looking to Reza's kids.

3/09/2006 1:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Add the unnamed source in this BBC article, "The US said Iran had enough nuclear material for 10 atomic bombs and it was time for the Security Council to act."
The context of the article implies it was Assistant Secretary of State Nicholas Burns, but can't really tell.

(http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4786968.stm)

3/09/2006 5:17 PM  
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Iranian sailors trained at Great Lakes when I was there. It seemed strange to walk into an office and see a portrait of the Shah of Iran.
The man did look impressive in full uniform and a chest full of medals he probably didn't earn.

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