Wednesday, April 19, 2006

"Ready For Anything"

The prices of both oil and gold continue to rise; the former is now trading at nominal all-time highs, while the latter has been hitting new quarter-century highs day after day. This is excess liquidity coming home to roost. While the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to mollify foreign central banks, it’s made it clear that any weakness in either the stock market or the economy will be met with massive infusions of liquidity, and dollar-denominated debt will be inflated away. The world is waking up to this, which is why oil and gold march inexorably higher and the long bond is tanking. This is inflation, and the rest of the world is acting accordingly. Today, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad said, "The global oil price has not reached its real value yet.” He’s right, of course. He knows that every dollar he receives for his oil today will be worth less tomorrow, so Iran (and OPEC) is demanding ever-higher prices for its only natural resource. The nerve, eh? We won’t take that lying down, which is why the marketing of Target Iran is in full swing. Our ability to print our way through debt, economic weakness, and preemptive wars is at stake. You didn’t think it was all about "WMD’s" did you?

If you’re wondering why the stock market acts well in the face of skyrocketing oil and various other problems, the answer is that stocks are doing exactly what the White House and Federal Reserve want them to do---for now. If your costs---food, healthcare, clothing, tuition, energy---are rising at double-digit rates every year, are you going to keep your savings in a money market fund or treasuries? You’ll be destroyed by inflation. So out of necessity and desperation, investors take more risk. Speculation increases. You start to see articles in the mainstream media like this one titled "3 Prime Picks from the Pink Sheets," a reference to the seedy underbelly of the stock market. You get "trading contests" on business news channels. You see a Wall Street pundit with his own daily TV show throwing chairs and screaming that he "needs you in" this or that "top pick." Of course, a select few benefit enormously from all this. For a graphic illustration, look at this chart. When fiscal and monetary policy go crazy, the investment banks and brokers are like bears perched over a prime spot while the salmon are running. Right now the river is not water, but liquidity.

Make no mistake: ours is radical fiscal and monetary policy with an uncertain but inevitably unpleasant end game. Very few examples exist of advanced, industrialized nations resorting to this. It's an extreme example obviously, but the dynamic of 1920's Germany is similar in many ways. One of the best accounts of that period I’ve read is Sebastian Haffner’s Defying Hitler, a street-level account of the way in which an entire modern nation slowly loses its collective mind. This period in German history has long been a special interest of mine, and I consider this book a must-read. Buy it if you haven't read it. Describing the social and economic effects of inflation during 1923, Haffner writes on pages 55-56 (my bolds):
The cost of living had begun to spiral out of control. Traders followed hard on the heels of the dollar. A pound of potatoes which yesterday had cost fifty thousand marks now cost a hundred thousand. The salary of sixty-five thousand marks brought home the previous Friday was no longer sufficient to buy a packet of cigarettes on Tuesday.

What was to be done? Casting around, people found a life raft: shares. They were the only form of investment that kept pace---not all the time, and not all shares, yet on the whole they managed to keep up. So everyone dealt in shares. Every minor official, every employee, every shift worker became a shareholder. Day-to-day purchases were paid for by selling shares. On wage days there was a general stampede to the banks, and share prices shot up like rockets. The banks were bloated with wealth. Obscure new ones sprouted up like mushrooms and did a roaring trade. Every day the entire population studied the stock market listings. Sometimes some shares collapsed and thousands of people hurtled toward the abyss. In every shop, every factory, every school, share tips were whispered in one’s ear.

The old and unworldly had the worst of it. Many were driven to begging, many to suicide. The young and quick-witted did well. Overnight they became free, rich, and independent. It was a situation in which mental inertia and reliance on past experience were punished by starvation and death, but rapid appraisal of new situations and speed of reaction were rewarded with sudden, vast riches. The twenty-one-year-old bank director appeared on the scene, and also the high school senior who earned his living from the stock-market tips of his slightly older friends. He wore Oscar Wilde ties, organized champagne parties, and supported his embarrassed father.
That was Germany eighty-three years ago. Anything sound familiar?

So while Germany’s central bank inflated away the nation’s war debts and the prices of daily necessities skyrocketed, the stock market soared as people desperately tried to keep up. And in this way, Haffner writes, an entire nation became "ready for anything."

75 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chilling. And yes, increasingly familiar.

4/19/2006 10:07 PM  
Blogger BullandBearWise said...

Just make sure you find a chair when the music stops.

4/19/2006 10:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

one of the Best so far TCR. Kudos.

I, like you, deal daily with the markets; and I must admit seeing the SPX rise almost w/ the vigor of an angry Middle Finger to the price of QM...i do wonder what is going on.

4/19/2006 11:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

--quick edit for nontraders: SPX (s&p500) QM (Futures of Oil)

4/19/2006 11:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So what to do? As I see it, there are two possibilities for this market, both driven by how the Fed handles the day of reckoning when foreigners quit buying our bonds and supporting our spending habits in this country.

Will the Fed flood the system with dollars to prevent house prices from going down, accepting inflation and the possible loss of the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency for the sake of propping up overleveraged homeowners?

Or will the Fed defend the dollar and allow home prices to fall dramatically for the sake of our standing with the rest of the world, at the cost of the U.S. consumer and homeowner?

Given the present climate in Washington, DC, I am skeptical that our leadership will do anything other than pander to their constituencies, the rest of the world be da*#ed.

Perhaps I have oversimplified the possibilities, but I would like to read what you all think will happen and the best investments (i.e. bonds, commodities, stocks) to make for each scenario for people with cash. Additionally, is there another way this could play out?

4/20/2006 12:37 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

TCR. What do you think of ibonds?

4/20/2006 2:02 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The fed, for about a year now, has been hinting that the rate hikes are just about over. They seem curiously afraid to tell the market where rates really need to go. They pretend inflation is non-existent and say, with a straight face, the price of gold is rising because of all the jewelry being bought in asia. They have no reason for the rise in oil prices and they are not asked by interviewers.

Financial shows are turning into infomercials to buy stocks. Never a bad time to do the ‘mon-back. Rates rising? Buy. Rates finished rising? Buy, buy. Rates dropping? Buy, buy, buy. Inflation number look nasty? Not when you exclude food and energy. Nuke problems? The perfect wall-of-worry the market likes to climb. On and on and on. I’m not a financial expert but I do watch the stock market and I have to say, something weird is going on. When the market is going down, I understand people are afraid and will sell even when bids are too low. I can even understand strong-stomach funds not willing to sell even at multi-year highs and a lot of bad news and economic numbers be posted. But for these fiduciaries to go out and deploy money in the stock market, raising bids without pausing for price discover is just hard to understand.

4/20/2006 2:06 AM  
Anonymous Prescott Wayne said...

As a long-time trader, I would caution against extrapolating ANY current trend too far into the future. Be careful and don't invest on any sort of hyper-inflationary theory. The markets won't allow it to happen, in my view. Fiscal recklessness IS the order of the day, but to recklessly buy into stocks/oil/gold in this heated climate is asking for a butt-whipping.

"Predictions are difficult, especially as regards the future" said Mark Twain. I agree.

4/20/2006 10:00 AM  
Anonymous In the provinces said...

Sebastian Haffner doesn't have it quite right about the great inflation in Germany. Particularly in its latter phases (1922-23), stocks did not keep up with prices increases. Those in the know--e.g., big firms such as Krupp or Siemens--kept their assets in foreign currencies. See any parallels to today?

4/20/2006 1:32 PM  
Anonymous thirdeye said...

This financial bubble has to viewed in the context of the post-9/11 era wherein the Jewish-controlled U.S. banking system cannot show, under any circumstances, any U.S. weakness in the face of Islamic terror. This corruption of the United States of America by Jewish interests will end in another horrible Holocaust.

History doesn't rhyme, it repeats, over and over and over again with the struggle between the Semites.

4/20/2006 1:43 PM  
Anonymous kindness said...

jewish controlled - doesn't that sound somewhat racist to you, or was that the point you were making?

4/20/2006 3:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Posts like this are what set you apart from all other blogs. Many thanks for the effort, research, and thoughts.

4/20/2006 5:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can't recall ever seeing a day with oil, gold, AND the market all up big like we had on Wednesday. I think market manipulators tried to force a panic selling in gold today, but failed... The writing on the wall is clear: oil will go higher, inflation will rise along with interest rates, the dollar and homeowners will suffer, and gold will appreciate. Just my take.

4/20/2006 8:07 PM  
Anonymous Doug said...

Whatever the links between the hyper- inflation and the demise of Weimar, it should be noted that there were several years of relative stability between the end of the inflation and the onset of the Great Depression. In the end, Weimar fell because too few people with real power were willing to stand up for the republic. Most of them preferred authoritarian, or semi-authoritarian government, having grown up, made careers and gained power under just such a system. That is a significant different from the US, and one that is not going away.

4/20/2006 8:08 PM  
Anonymous ctbill said...

Wonderful, interesting post TCR.

4/20/2006 9:41 PM  
Blogger HomeImprovementNinja said...

Hey, I just heard about your blog. My blog is mostly about home improvement, but occassionally I'll through in a libertarian rant or talk about asset bubbles too.

I like your reasoning on why commodity and stock prices are rising at the same time. Have you read anything by the austrian school economists (mises, hayek etc.)?

4/20/2006 10:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Speedcat says,

I would like to comment on the best 4 comments on this blog post:

1. As to the Fed standing up for the dollar versus the housing market, that's easy. Fed will stand up for the dollar 100 days out of 100. The Fed knows that our economy is FAR more motivated by dollar debt purchase than by our housing market. Housing market is a temporary phenom; the foreign purchase of our debt is a foundation of our economy today, a permanent factor.


2) Agree with the long-term trader. Don't put too much stock in today's markets. Weird shaiit happens. Tomorrow we'll understand it (maybe), today if we're smart we don't do anything rash.

3) Foreign currencies - the smart Weimar money went foreign. This is a bit different from today, IMO. I think there is something to the blog post that we're heading for an inflationary hell sometime in the middle future. But MANY more signs will tell us if this is the case, and PLENTY of time is on our side before we have to jump into that game.

3) Doug: authoritarian vs. liberal gov't, and the business response to it. Whereas your concept is appealing on it's face, the fact is we don't really know if our "business community" in the US is really into democracy and liberal gov't that much; if they thought they could make more $$ in an authoritarian system, if they had the ears of those in power, why wouldn't they support such a system?

Thanks for a good discussion, all.

4/21/2006 1:00 AM  
Blogger Grodge said...

Been reading TCR for a while (and Marc Faber for even longer). I usually don't comment, but this TCR entry is THE best on the net-- a must read for all investors. I've been long gold (GLD, AAUK), oil (various drillers, suppliers), coal (BTU) and short US Treausries (RYJAX) for 12 months and holding.

One comment and one question for Speedcat's #3: yes, foreign currencies may be a better asset class than US dollars, but gold has been blowing the doors off every currency for a while; Goldman-Sachs is probably leveraged heavily against inflation, hence it's nice run-up lately. They're the pros (just bought some last week, too late?)

Question: What about foreign real estate as an inflation hedge? I've been looking at Cohen and Steers Internat'l RE Fund (IRFCX) since it's a pretty hard market to enter outside of mutual funds. What say you?

Grodge

4/21/2006 11:48 AM  
Blogger DED said...

With regards to SpeedyCat's 4th point, businesses will go where ever they can make money.

In Europe, where governments tend to be more liberal than here, businesses agree to follow strict privacy guidelines and don't sell genetically modified foods. Auto manufactureres adapt by selling smaller, more fuel efficient cars as state fuel taxes add to the already high price of gas.

It took boycotts of American businesses in Apartheid South Africa before some of them did anything about their position there. Nothing like that exists towards businesses operating in China.

Businesses cave in to what the Chinese gov't demands of them because the market potential is huge. Google's story made headlines, only because they had promised to "do no evil" in their operations. Their competitors had already done so, so they had little choice (from their prospective) but to follow suit.

So long as a business can make a profit, they don't care what kind of gov't runs the show. While a minority of companies may care, if they want to stay in business they have to play along or perish.

4/21/2006 12:46 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ibonds would be good..if the government didn't lie about inflation.

4/21/2006 6:24 PM  
Blogger ofuok said...

"-kept their assets in foreign currencies. See any parallels to today?"
I'm wondering if there's any kind of distinction that can, or should be drawn between corporate money flow out of US paper and individual American wealth finding harbor elsewhere. Seems in the former, the effects are somewhat mitigated by globalization (large companies less associated with a single nation, w/ many options today) where the richest individual Americans have received six years of windfall and may be looking to store it off-shore until the tumble, to return as a blunt capital instrument. If I were rich, that's how I'd play it. But I'm not rich, an economist, or a market person...How would you find out if there was an excess of individual capital flight happening today? Any ideas?

4/22/2006 12:39 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Speedcat said:

DOD: great post, agreed 100%.

Grodge,

Gold will always be a good hedge in inflationary times. I'm not a metals trader so you'd know more than I about the individual markets today. My take is that inflation is coming, but not as fast and hard as the original blog post seems to think it will. Smart folks will have plenty of time to act, IMO, as long as their asset base is somewhat liquid.

Real estate IMO is generally a fantastic investment. But with any vehicle you have to know your market. Real estate tends to be very local in terms of market movements, if you take out the global movers like interest rate hikes and general economic turns, so I would stick with vehicles that respect this fact & use it to their advantage.

IF it is the US currency under greater threat of inflation than other currencies, then perhaps foriegn RE would be a good target for consideration today. In RE, as in any investment set, diversification should be a primary rule. In terms of RE, that mostly equates to geographic diversification, so again I'd be looking here and abroad for smart opportunities in RE.

4/22/2006 1:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This article will provoke some thought on the discussion.

http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0222-22.htm

4/22/2006 4:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

First all, thank you TCR for consistently producing one of the most fair, balanced and thought provoking blogs I have ever seen. I have been reading it for over a year and I am continually impressed. That being said, and at the risk of sounding like a moron (though not as big of a moron as the guy who is blaming 'jewish bank')...

From a big picture perspective, isn't there a chance for a perfect storm type of event that could make the 70's look like good times?

The savings rate is negative. Median household income has decreased once again. People are leveraged to the hilt due to an increase of home ownership in an inflated market coupled with the further increase of other consumer debt due to being leveraged. Health care costs are rising and will conrinue to rise as companies increasingly pass off the costs. Inevitable inflation from the current Fed monetary policy will exacerbate these problems while also putting a pinch on consumers in an ever increasing service based economy.

I guess my question is, once the credit cards are maxed, gas is $4+, mortgage rates are sky high (a double whammy for those with ARMs or worse), medical insurance rates double or worse at a time when Boomers will be screaming for these services, who will be around to support this 'service-based economy', the theoretical Wal-Mart's that are actually creating jobs?

I don't think we will ever see post WWI Germany like conditions in this country, but I am personally starting to wonder how bad it could get before sane heads prevail. Are we head long into another eventual 1929?

I guess I should put ye olde tin foil hat back on my head, I suppose.

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Anonymous thirdeye said...

>>1. As to the Fed standing up for the dollar versus the housing market, that's easy. Fed will stand up for the dollar 100 days out of 100. The Fed knows that our economy is FAR more motivated by dollar debt purchase than by our housing market. Housing market is a temporary phenom; the foreign purchase of our debt is a foundation of our economy today, a permanent factor.<<

This becomes obvious when you understand the Fed holds more securities on behalf of foreigners than it does for itself.

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