Voting The Pocketbook

Over the past few years, some have dubbed this a "jobless" recovery. I think it's better characterized as "joyless." For those who don't understand the gap between what the pollyannas insist about the economy (and that's reaching a fever pitch these days, isn't it?) and what people are telling the pollsters, I highly recommend reading this interview with a reality-based economist. I saw it a few months ago when it first appeared, but a reader reminded me of it this week. It's a subscription-based site, so I don't know how long this particular piece will be available to the public. Excerpt:

If the numbers don't seem real to the man in the street, they probably aren't. Real unemployment right now -- figured the way that the average person thinks of unemployment, meaning figured the way it was estimated back during the Great Depression -- is running about 12%. Real CPI right now is running at about 8%. And the real GDP probably is in contraction. I venture that if you talked about those numbers now with the average person, they would say that they seem reasonable.

I might quibble a bit on GDP, but I agree on the rest. Listen, I've spent significant non-airport time in most states in this country. The old adage that "people vote their pocketbooks" is true. Most people couldn't give a damn about the next town over, much less the rest of the world; as long as they can pay their bills and go to a stable job every day, all is well.

But the opinion polls tell us that all is not well. Part of that is due to Iraq, of course. But it's also because this has become the "Proof is in the Pudding" presidency. Things that can be cherry-picked, massaged or made up---GDP, inflation, unemployment, or prewar intelligence---paint the desired picture. Things that are impervious to politicization---gas prices, the dollar, gold, and ultimately opinion polls---tell a different story. That gap leads inexorably to the "accountability moment" it appears the upcoming midterm elections will provide.