It's Five Minutes To Midnight

....according to Charles Krauthammer's alarm clock. Read all about it here. He advocates breathlessly (via "calculus" and thus with irrefutable mathematical precision!) a U.S. attack on Iran: "With the crisis advancing and the moment of truth approaching, it is important to begin looking now with unflinching honesty at the military option." And this: "These are the questions. These are the calculations. The decision is no more than a year away."

Krauthammer's "unflinching honesty" aside, we know that as of one year ago, the official estimate of the U.S. intelligence community was that Iran was about a decade away from developing nuclear weapons. A few weeks ago, The Washington Times reported that the Pentagon is working off an estimate of 5-8 years. What developments during the past year led the Pentagon to cut the National Intelligence Estimate potentially in half? It's a legitimate question, since according to this report the NIE timeline was "designed to reflect a program moving full speed ahead without major technical obstacles." Nevertheless, even the Pentagon's estimate makes it clear that there can be no responsible, justifiable use of military power against Iran during Bush's second term based on what we know right now. What we know (or can estimate reasonably) may change -- but it certainly won't be because of any swill that comes out of an "Office of Special Plans"-redux in Rumsfeld's attic or farcical "Iranian Expats for Democracy" via Cheney's office.

I've said before in this space that we must do everything possible to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. But the raison d'etre for our intelligence community is balancing knowledge with uncertainty and reward with risk. That's how our political leaders once developed and implemented sensible geopolitical strategy. Have we reached the point at which that's too rigorous or constraining? Then let's disband our intelligence agencies immediately and send everyone home. We'll save a few hundred billion a year and, without any "slam dunk" scapegoat, there will be no doubt about whom to blame for the ensuing disasters undertaken on faith.

If we approach the point at which diplomatic options on Iran have failed and the minimum estimate for nuclear capability draws uncomfortably near, you'll hear me shout clearly that it's time for action. In the meantime, those inside our intelligence community ---many of whom are competent, hardworking patriots doing their best to protect us -- need to take a stand against the misuse and politicization of their work. And yes, taking a stand means putting one's job on the line as a whistleblower if necessary. As disastrous as Iraq has been, the stakes are even higher with Iran.