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Don't Play That Card, Mr. President

After the Katrina and Miers debacles, one might think President Bush would realize the folly of placing unqualified political cronies in high-profile positions. But if the rumors about Andy Card replacing John Snow as Treasury Secretary turn out to be true (Card's recent denials notwithstanding) it's going to be deja vu all over again.

Under this administration, Treasury has been emasculated; the input and influence of competent career officials has waned, and the department has turned into little more than a John Snow-led cheerleading squad. That's been masked by the relative stability of the global financial markets since 9/11. But due in large measure to the fiscal and monetary policies the U.S. has pursued over the past few years, that stability is likely to end before Bush's second term does. Outside of 9/11 (and to a lesser degree, the accounting scandals of 2002) the last crisis was the tech stock crash in 2000---almost six years ago. We're overdue. If and when we get another dislocation---and it could take many different forms---the two most important people in Washington are the Treasury Secretary and the head of the Federal Reserve. Beginning early next year, the latter will be Ben Bernanke, a lifelong ivory tower academic with a wonderful history of published articles and fellowships but not one bit of actual experience in the financial markets. As a side note, it's true that Alan Greenspan similarly had no experience in the guts of Wall Street (he was a private economist for decades before becoming head of the Fed in 1987) but during most of his tenure he's been teamed with Treasury heads from strong financial backgrounds, including Nicholas Brady and Robert Rubin. Under President Bush, we've had Paul O'Neill and John Snow---highly respected corporate executives to be sure, but lacking in Wall Street credibility. The tag team of Bernanke and Card would be dangerously short on Street cred. Importantly, just as the Treasury Secretary can ameliorate crises a la Robert Rubin during the 1990's, he can exacerbate them as well. James Baker's ill-timed comments about the dollar were a contributing factor in the stock market crash of 1987. Is anyone ready to argue that Andy Card is a savvier player in global financial markets than James Baker?

Andy Card running Treasury would raise other issues. In the wake of Paul O'Neill and John Snow, it would strengthen the perception that Republicans have ceded the standard of excellence in important economic posts to Democrats. With all the support that Republicans enjoy in the financial community, is this the best they can do? Someone like John Mack would have made a wonderful Treasury head before he rejoined Morgan Stanley earlier this year. That caliber of experience is out there; part of being a leader is convincing it to come to Washington to serve. Yet one of the tragedies of the Bush administration is the way it has made the prospect of public service far less attractive for competent private sector citizens. That's what clumsy, failed cronyism does. When good people like Harriet Miers are placed in untenable situations and dragged through the mud (and pals like Michael Brown also turn into high-profile train wrecks, albeit for different reasons) other good people don't see much upside in going to Washington. By all accounts, Andy Card is highly competent, extremely loyal, and a good person---exactly the type who should not be asked to do a crucial job for which he's not qualified.

Unless you think this administration won't give Social Security reform one last shot before leaving office, there's something else to consider. The Secretary of the Treasury is the managing trustee of the Social Security program. Obviously, it's not necessary to spend time explaining the variety of ways another push for private accounts would be easier with a longtime political and family confidant overseeing things on the inside. I'm still in favor of some type of reform, but after the past few years I have little confidence in the ability of this bunch to pull off something so important and complex.

One last point: during the past few years, more than a few grizzled veterans of Wall Street have puzzled over what they see as strangely and propitiously timed bursts of buying interest in the stock market. Appointing a loyal crony to run Treasury would do nothing to dispel such speculation.

The major issue, though, is market credibility. If we do indeed get hit with some sort of financial crisis during the remaining years of this administration, the president's inevitable reaction would be just as likely to set off panic as inspire confidence: "You're doing a heckuva job, Andy."

103 Comments:

Blogger Barry Ritholtz said...

No one knows the future -- but what we can do is try to evaluate when risk levels are rising, and its pretty clear (to me) that they have been.

Add to that the risks associated when a new Fed Chair coms into office -- that has historically been a somewhat rocky transition. A new Treasury Secretary -- especially one so obviously unsuitable -- fits in perfectly with my Dow 6,800 thesis!

12/22/2005 6:40 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You've already mentioned this at least once, but can you stick your cards a little further towards the table about possible government open market intervention?

So long as it is only Street insiders or "grizzled veterans", nobody will take much notice. If you can show, in a clear and supported manner, what you think happens and when, then a real public debate could start, and the wider scrutiny could only be a good thing (it might pick up other irregularities, too).

After all, "government props up big financeco" is a good line for anyone from left-wing Dem to 'compassionate conservative' to run with. And if this was happening, and was known to be happening, the scrutiny would be useful, because such a programme would be very open to manipulation.

12/22/2005 7:10 AM  
Anonymous william said...

One last point: during the past few years, more than a few grizzled veterans of Wall Street have puzzled over what they see as strangely and propitiously timed bursts of buying interest in the stock market. Appointing a loyal crony to run Treasury would do nothing to dispel such speculation.

I'm with Anonymous -- can you throw us some linky goodness on this one?

12/22/2005 7:26 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Even if you were the most honorable and diligent believer in the good of public service to our country, can you blame folks for not want to work in this particular administration! I don't think one good guy would survive in this administration. Surely terrible news for us and our country.

This article is on the chaos in the Homeland Security Department, and the Administration nonattention.

Is there anything these guys won't politicize to take our country down.

Former Bush EPA director Wittman was on with Simpson and Reich and the discussion was: "how policy substance is almost never part of the discussion in the Bush White House, only the partisan political calculus, and how depressing it was -- how ill served the nation is by it."

It is so depressing to thing we have 3 more years of this administration's destruction. What shambles will they leave our government and infrastructures in :-(

12/22/2005 11:09 AM  
Blogger Lee said...

By the time this administration has left office, every department, agency, commission, etc. will have been subject to the same treatment.

How will we ever fix things?

12/22/2005 12:25 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm with first-Anonymous and William in requesting more explanation of those "propitiously timed bursts of buying interest." It sounds like we're getting into Sherman Skolnick territory here.

12/22/2005 2:32 PM  
Blogger BullandBearWise said...

In that we're being held afloat to the tune of $2 billion a day by our Asian friends, it doesn't matter if Mickey Mouse is the Secetary of the Treasury. The Asians hold the real "Card"(s).

12/22/2005 4:33 PM  
Blogger jpmist said...

"more than a few grizzled veterans of Wall Street have puzzled over what they see as strangely and propitiously timed bursts of buying interest in the stock market."

To find out more you can start with googling the phrase "Plunge Protection Team" and plow in. For some of the links you need a tinfoil hat to read, but the most interesting report is:

On September 17, 2001, ABC"s "Good Morning America" correspondent George Stephanopoulos addressed the actions taken by thegovernment to ensure that equity prices did not plunge when trading resumed. According to a transcript we recently discovered, Stephanopoulos said the following:

"Well, what I just want to talk about for a few minutes is the various efforts that are going on in public and behind the scenes by the Fed and other government officials to guard against a free-fall in the markets. You reported just a while ago that the Fed has lowered the overnight interestrates, will put about $80 billion into the market. In addition, the SEC, the Securities and Exchange Commission, has relaxed the rules for companies on whether or not they can buy back their stock in case they start to fall. And dozens of companies, including big companies like Intel and Cisco have announced that they would buy back their stock if necessary. Third, there will be some trading curbs in effect today. If the market drops by about 1,100 points, they will probably suspend trading for a while. And perhaps most important, there's been the Fed in 1989 created what is called a plunge protection team, which is the Federal Reserve, big major banks, representatives of the New York Stock Exchange and the other exchanges, and there they have been meeting informally so far, and they have kind of an informal agreement among major banks to come in and start to buy stock if there appears to be a problem."

12/22/2005 11:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Any story of stock market manipulation has to start in the futures pits. It is absolutely certain that the carnage of the 87 crash was ended in the MMI futures pits.

Stopping a crash however, the purported aim of the so called PPT, is much different than day to day manipulation.

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Nearly 60% of all stock trades are now program trades executed by the the big brokers on behalf of hedge funds, institutions and most importantly their own accounts.

Of course the brokers are trading against their customers as they always have so that probably tends to explain a lot of the deep sense of manipulation. Lehman Bros. has $400billion in assets which the gladly proclaim they turn over several times a day. Yes, a day. That's all you really have to know.

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