Sunday, April 23, 2006

Fine People, Doing Hard Work

The attempt to discredit, revise away, or ignore our intelligence community's estimate on Iran's nuclear capability is well underway. Here's Donald Rumsfeld's response to Laura Ingraham's version of a high hard one on her radio show last week (sidenote: read the transcript to see how Rumsfeld defines the current chaos in Iraq as "an awkward period in a democracy," casually comparing it to the uncertainty of the Florida recount during the 2000 presidential election!):
INGRAHAM: Are you confident that that estimate of a few days ago of being five years or perhaps even ten years away is realistic and accurate given the fact that in the past we've certainly underestimated nuclear capabilities?

SECRETARY RUMSFELD: No.

INGRAHAM: No which part?

SECRETARY RUMSFELD: No, I'm not confident.

INGRAHAM: Uh huh.

SECRETARY RUMSFELD: I think it's a very difficult target for our intelligence community. They work hard at it and they're fine people, but it's a difficult thing to do. Our visibility into their circumstance is imperfect. I would add that if one is asked the question how long would it take them to do certain things totally, alone, on an indigenous basis without assistance from other countries you'd get one answer. If you said to them, if you said what if they were able to get ballistic missiles from North Korea, as they have, and what if they were able to acquire fissile material from somebody? How long would it take? I think you'd get a somewhat different answer.
Ah yes, they're "fine people," but "it's a difficult thing to do." They have the best of intentions, but it's hard work, after all. Certainly they can't be faulted for getting it wrong.

Meanwhile, John Negroponte---perhaps constrained by his current job title---had a momentary lapse of hysteria. Here's his response to a question at the National Press Club on Thursday:
The developments in Iran are -- clearly they're troublesome: the fact that they had an undeclared nuclear program for a number of years until they were discovered; the fact that they have resumed enrichment activities and have now got these 164 centrifuges spinning, with a view to enriching uranium to a level that is -- can be used as fissile material for a nuclear weapon.

I think there's also concern about the new leadership of Iran, particularly President Ahmadinejad and some of the extreme statements that he has made during the course of -- the tenure of his presidency. So there's a whole host of reasons to be concerned about the behavior of Iran at this particular point in time.

But I would say and I would add that by the same token, our assessment at the moment is that even though we believe that Iran is determined to acquire or obtain a nuclear weapon, that we believe that it is still a number of years off before they are likely to have enough fissile material to assemble into or to put into a nuclear weapon, perhaps into the next decade, so that I think it's important that this issue be kept in perspective.
Who to believe?

35 Comments:

Blogger Innes said...

Who to believe?

Well, that depends on whether one has at least one working brain cell, doesn't it?

4/24/2006 4:47 AM  
Blogger jucojames said...

I think that your concept of "personal intelligence agency" is valid, but also believe that the best answer to this stuff is "we don't know". As I have commented on your blog before, I am no fan of Rumsfeld, but I agree with him here. Just as our intelligence was flat out wrong on Iraq in overestimating WMD's, they were flat out wrong on North Korea underestimating them. To use Iraq in a vacuum as a reason to de facto assume that any suggestion that Iran could be ahead of what is currently estimated by the CIA is misguided IMO. The fact is that we probably don't know - and ignorance is certainly not bliss in this instance.

4/24/2006 11:00 AM  
Anonymous thirdeye said...

TCR, while you make many good points in your blog, your continued confusion over the media wars is wearisome.

Rules to live by:

1. It is in the government's interest to mislead as a matter of war policy.

2. Don't shoot the messenger.

Understand these and much of what concerns you becomes moot.

4/24/2006 1:37 PM  
Anonymous Kevin Wohlmut said...

I side with TCR here. It's one thing to say "we don't know" and "the intelligence could be wrong" and "Err on the side of caution" and all that -- but that's a reason to spy on Iran, sanction them, negotiate, initiate covert sabotage, and so forth. It is not a reason to go to war.

Going to war under this circumstance would be sacrificing the lives of hundreds or maybe thousands of American soldiers (to say nothing of thousands or tens of thousands of foreigners) simply because of somebody's personal cowardice that "we don't dare" wait for better intelligence or give time for diplomacy to work. It is a strategy based on fear and ignorance... literally. It is to act without intelligence, in every sense of the word.

And as for the idea that the Bush Administration is saber-rattling, using threats as a means of avoiding war... well in this case, past experience is instructive. That's just what all the Democrats said when they signed the Authorization to Use Military Force against Iraq. That misunderstanding led to two thousand dead US soldiers, and counting, plus what may eventually be a trillion dollars which would have saved a lot more lives and promoted freedom if used more wisely.

War with Iran is not warranted at this juncture. And given the Bush Administration's [sic] record of screwing up virtually everything they've attempted, due to ideological blindness, I can't trust them to pull it off, and I can't help but think the main motivation is an electoral stunt. Therefore, I resist them.

4/24/2006 3:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

something Rummy should look at:

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4/24/2006 11:46 PM  
Anonymous JWC said...

The idea that regular citizens of this country would "buy in" to the idea of nuking Iran upsets me. The idea that our media would fail to do their job in reporting on Iran, and instead swallow and regurgitate the administrations PR on selling the idea that we have to do something, including nukes, to obtain regieme change in Iran, makes me ill.

The idea that our President would even think of nuking Iran, for whatever reason... Words do not express the revulsion I feel.

Iraq, a bad idea implemented badly, is nothing compared to the idea of our democracy nuking a country that has not attacked us.

4/25/2006 11:43 AM  
Anonymous thirdeye said...

>>Iraq, a bad idea implemented badly, is nothing compared to the idea of our democracy nuking a country that has not attacked us.<<

If it's to protect Israel, this "democracy" will nuke Iran. You can bet your sweet bippie.

4/25/2006 2:49 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

TCR,

Do YOU have a personal intelligence agency? If not, how can you be so confident that Iran will not develop nukes in the very near future? Just because a bunch of intelligence sources say so?

Well, as you've been fond of pointing out, we haven't found any WMD in Iraq - despite the fact that the CIA was extremely confident that Iraq still had them (and the intelligence agencies of virtually all of the European Union agreed with the CIA on this). In this, it appears that they were all very wrong and Iraq no longer had WMD. So, what evidence do we have that they are correct with respect to Iran?

The fact is that Rumsfeld is correct here. The likely timeline regarding Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon (assuming they continue to press on with their attempt) probably range from next year to 20 years from now, with 10 years from now being the mid point of the bell curve, so to speak, and therefore the time with the highest percentage of being correct. That's all.

As an executive in the financail industry you should be familiar with fat tails on bell curves - let us all hope that Iran doesn't have a fat tail on the short end of it's nuclear bell curve.

4/25/2006 4:03 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"and the intelligence agencies of virtually all of the European Union agreed..."

You lost all credibility the instant you repeated this canard. Anyone that was paying attention, and not gorging themselves on propaganda at the time, knows this line is complete BS.

4/25/2006 5:53 PM  
Anonymous Kevin Wohlmut said...

* Sigh * to Anonymous 4:03PM...

As I am trying to explain, our intelligence agencies are doing their level best to define exactly the shape of that bell curve you speak of.

And it seems to be -- decade-long, paper-thin tail on the near end.

New York Times
Arms Control Wonk

Sorry, and with respect, Anonymous 4:03PM... but the "fact" is NOT that Rumsfeld is correct here. The FACTS that we know, tell us "ten years". The sole and only thing the crisis-mongers have on their side here, is the fear of the turbaned boogeyman under the bed. The entire argument breaks down to "We don't dare trust the facts we have, so we must act precipitously out of fear rather than reason."

How can you possibly claim the "facts" are on your side (and Rumsfeld's) in your post, when your entire thesis is that the FACTUAL EVIDENCE gathered by professionals is likely to be wrong? By definition, you are saying that the facts are not on your side.

Incidentally, it is exactly this same illogic which leads the U.S. to reject Iranian efforts at negotiation and cooperation... so that, of course, later after we invade Iran and find their nuclear program was mainly bluff, we can retroactively accuse them of "not letting the inspectors in".

4/25/2006 8:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The problem with all products of "intelligence" agencies is that they are attempting to gain useful information, while at the same time thier opponents are trying to keep from them that same information or feeding them incorrect information. In the financial deal world this would be like trying to do due diligence on a potential merger target while they are actively opposing your efforts and/or giving you false information about the target.

So, let's not kid ourselves here, it IS difficult work. And, it is difficult to get the correct answer (just as we hopefully have our "best and brightest" working on this, so presumably do other countries, like Iran).

This means that we CANNNOT be certain of any of this. Even if the Iranians proclaim something publicly, it may not necessarily be true, as they will have motives to deceive us one way or the other.

All of this is educated guessing, and until Iran detonates a nuclear warhead, there is no way around it.

4/26/2006 2:14 PM  
Anonymous Kevin Wohlmut said...

Everything you say is true, but you do not address what I said earlier -- and what I said three years ago last March -- none of these uncertainties, fears, and suppositions is a valid reason to start a war, which would certainly kill many people on our side (maybe tens of thousands if the Iranians flex their Shiite muscles in Iraq), plus tens or hundreds of thousands of foreigners. There is no way to justify a defensive war by saying "we can't trust the intelligence we have". All that blood would be on our hands as aggressors, yours and mine for paying taxes, as well as being the guilt of our leaders. Wars of aggression are illegal, and while the laws of war allow for pre-emptory self-defense with tangible evidence, a war based on "we can't trust our evidence and we can't trust those weird furriners" is simple aggression.

It's as if your local police department told you, "Our spy satellites caught you looking at porn, so we can't trust you not to rape your female neighbor. We're throwing you in jail because we can't risk it." There is no way to get around the fact that punishment in advance of a crime is unjust. Iran has not yet committed a nuclear crime of any sort.

The world survived the 70s and 80s, when the Soviet Union had (what was the figure) 8,000-10,000 nuclear warheads pointed at us, only because we all realized that it's better to live with a small risk of betrayal, and negotiate with terrifying enemies, than to iniciate a modern technological war. If you are ready to throw that principle out the window, then I hope your bomb shelter is well-stocked, because it won't end with Iran. (Also I suspect the financial-merger situation you describe happens pretty much every day, we all know after Enron that you can't trust corporate fiscal reports anymore, yet somehow the Capitalist system trundles on.)

4/26/2006 7:03 PM  
Anonymous Kevin Wohlmut said...

...sorry, that was "initiate" with a "t". (I've been speaking Spanish a lot, and they spell it with a "c")

4/26/2006 7:22 PM  
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