Tuesday, January 03, 2006

Event Horizon

There are some absolutely fascinating dynamics at work in the global economy right now.

Today, the stock market rose sharply after the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its December meeting, and investors interpreted those minutes to indicate that interest rate hikes are nearing an end. But something else also happened today. The Federal Reserve increased its level of temporary liquidity to the highest level since 9/11. For those not familiar with the term, liquidity is essentially money created by the Federal Reserve that acts to support various assets such as stocks, bonds and commodities. Today, that pool of liquidity reached a stunning $60 billion, up from $23 billion in mid-December. To be sure, the Fed boosts liquidity at the end of every year, but size of this increase is extraordinary and far greater than any previous year-end.

As a result, both oil and gold rallied sharply as well. As I type this, oil is at $63, and gold is up $20 from its close on Friday. Oil and gold (and stocks, of course) are reflecting the incredible amount of liquidity that's been created during the past few weeks (and months/years, for that matter). Investors are watching the Federal Reserve's actions---creating a huge amount of money out of the blue, hinting that rate hikes are almost done---and realizing that the Fed has decided to follow only one course of action: inflate. The Fed's actions are utterly irresponsible. If the Fed was truly independent from political influence as is supposed to be the case, Alan Greenspan would be yanked onto the carpet before he retires in a few weeks and forced to explain himself. That won't happen, of course, so we should all expect to pay higher prices for everything we need. Did you think gas prices were high last summer? Wait until you see them this coming summer.

The Fed's actions have profound implications. From the early 1980's through the late 1990's, OPEC was willing to play ball with us; the U.S. could create enough liquidity to ameliorate economic weakness, and OPEC (particularly Saudi Arabia) would recycle its oil revenues into U.S. financial assets and take any action necessary to prevent the price of oil from rising. For various reasons---9/11, the war in Iraq alienating the Muslim world, the rise of players like Hugo Chavez---that relationship has completely broken down. Simply stated, OPEC is no longer willing to let us print our way out of messes; thus, the inexorable rise in the price of oil as the Federal Reserve continues to create a historic amount of paper and OPEC demands a higher price for its only natural resource. And instead of parking all those extra dollars in treasuries, the oil producers and other nations like China increasingly are snapping up gold to diversify away from the dollar and protect themselves.

To Washington, that's unacceptable. When China, Russia, Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia refuse to play ball and start creating consequences for our profligate fiscal and monetary policy, that's when the gloves come off. Did you think the increasing speculation about military action against Iran is just about its nuclear program? Did you dismiss Russia's temporary halt in natural gas deliveries to Ukraine as a minor regional tiff? Have you been wondering why we seem so obsessed with someone like Hugo Chavez? Statists abhor consequences, and these nations are creating them for us. For any new readers, here's the link to a longer post I wrote about this important dynamic; I think understanding it is crucial, particularly regarding the issue of Iran.

For many months now, the Federal Reserve or its mouthpieces have hinted that the cycle of rate hikes is coming to an end. Keeping it somewhat open-ended is important, of course. If the Fed left absolutely no doubt that the cycle of rate hikes had ended, oil would shoot straight for $80 and gold for $600. Conversely, if the Fed made it clear (as it should) that it was concerned about inflation and that interest rates could possibly increase throughout most of 2006, the stock market and the economy would weaken right before the crucial mid-term elections and just as Bush's approval rating shows signs of recovering. That dynamic also applies to the burrs under our saddle. Want to take Chavez or Putin or the Mullahs down a notch? Stop printing so much money, and the price of oil---the source of their newfound influence and power---will back off. Or we can keep inflating to avoid unpleasant domestic consequences, and the event horizon draws ever closer. That's the box the Federal Reserve has created for itself, and for all of us.

In the past, we held the key to that box. Today, the keymasters are in Beijing, Moscow, Riyadh and Caracas---and most certainly Tehran. And that, of course, has profound geopolitical and military implications.

138 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

OK, so where does one put one's money? Foreign stocks? Should you be holding debt or paying it off?

1/03/2006 8:12 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gold stocks, like Goldcorp, GG
Inflation protected bonds
like FINTX?
Global stocks-like ETG
and maybe a smidgen of
MRE's and Mini-14s with a ranch
in the foothills and solar power

1/03/2006 8:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks. I've been reallocating my investments so my stocks are about half US companies and half foreign. And some mining stocks seem to make sense, although I don't like buying individual stocks. I wonder if nuclear power stocks make sense, too. As for the MREs and firepower, hmm, I'm afraid that could turn out to be prescient.

1/03/2006 8:28 PM  
Blogger BullandBearWise said...

TCR, I think you'll be seeing an inflated Fed pool over the next 30-45 days to ensure an "orderly" transition from Greenspan to Bernanke.

Your other concerns are timely. In the end, I still don't think it's wise to fight the Fed unless they lose control. Of course, by then it's too late. The trick is not to go broke taking the other side of the trade everytime they look stressed.

1/03/2006 9:36 PM  
Blogger mjs said...

I sure hope you are wrong, but I suspect not. In five short years we have lost all leverage in dealing with our "allies" who will surely, and quickly, call due our obligations and stop lending. We are doomed.

1/03/2006 9:58 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I consider this one of your best posts to date. The ability to plainly explain the intersection of our economic and political, and even military implications, is why this is one of the blogs I check every day. Many thanks TCR!

1/03/2006 11:22 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

agree with previous poster. Interesting, compelling, informative, chilling.

1/03/2006 11:32 PM  
Anonymous ken said...

I don't understand what you are referring to in this post. The Fed operates a discount window which provides temporary liquidity to commercial banks. It does not, to my knowledge, 'create' a pool of liquidity. It simply lends money overnight so banks can balance their books. It is fully collateralized borrowing. The rate at which the Fed lends money directly to banks is called the 'discount rate'. This is different than the Federal Funds Rate which is a targeted interest rate for banks to borrow from each other, also overnight, also to meet temporary liquidity needs.

By raising both of these rates the Fed has actually constricts liquidity, as understood in the classic sense at least.

Perhaps your point is that the discount rate is still too low and should be increased a lot more?

Is there another mechinism the Fed operates that can create this pool of liquidity you speak about that I am not aware of?

I believe their only tools are the Discount Rate and the the Funds Rate. Is there anything else?

1/04/2006 12:19 AM  
Blogger chris bray said...

I would be interested to hear your thoughts on the potential impact of the kinds of systems disruption that John Robb has been discussing at Global Guerillas. Along with the events you're discussing, these seem like an extra bullet to go with the stabbing -- a disruption in an economic system that can't afford the disruption.

1/04/2006 1:59 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

TCR wrote
"To Washington, that's unacceptable. When China, Russia, Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia refuse to play ball and start creating consequences for our profligate fiscal and monetary policy, that's when the gloves come off. Did you think the increasing speculation about military action against Iran is just about its nuclear program?..."

There are some current rumors that Iran is trying to put together an oil bourse where the currency is euros and not dollars. And then there was talk prior to the Iraq war that Saddam was making noises of getting payment for his oil in euros as well..

1/04/2006 7:21 AM  
Blogger rsswg said...

Could you please explain what qualifies for description of an event horizon in financial world?

I consider the rise in gold, the possibility of oil bourse in Tehran, meetings of some Asian co.'s without invitation to U.S, etc as signs of shifting balance of power in the world. In that context there have been a series of steps that add up to perceivable change. Are these little event horizons or will they, added together, be one; or is this galvanizing, scary event something else.

1/04/2006 7:51 AM  
Anonymous Mike said...

Great post, CR.

1/04/2006 8:49 AM  
Blogger BullandBearWise said...

Ken, the Fed has additional tools, namely Securities Lending and Permanent Open Market Operations. You can view the effect of all the Fed's operations on the S&P 500 at my website: http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOSP500Chart3Mo.asp

While the Fed uses these tools to ostensibly provide liquidity to the banking system, clearly, some of this money finds its way into the stock market.

1/04/2006 11:56 AM  
Anonymous Mike said...

B&BW-

Something got messed up on today's POMO chart. 1/3/06 appears before 12/30/05. Not sure, though, if the dates are mixed up, or the bars. As you know, the securities lending numbers for each day are wildly divergent.

Love to know what's what (hint, hint).

1/04/2006 12:15 PM  
Blogger BullandBearWise said...

Thanks, Mike. The dates got bolloxed, as the Brits would say. It's corrected now. Big Securities Lending yesterday.

1/04/2006 1:46 PM  
Anonymous fizure said...

This is just superb writing. I will be adding this to my RSS aggregator, and also to my pathetic blog's blogrool. If only more people knew what kind of damage the Fed can cause when it is directed for partisan political reasons as opposed to strictly monetary and financial purposes.

Keep this stuff coming.

1/04/2006 2:21 PM  
Blogger AnotherMoneyBlog said...

TCR (or anyone)

M1 & M2 have been shrinking. What is the liquidity that has been injected into the
system?

Are there links to the actual data?

1/04/2006 5:21 PM  
Blogger AnotherMoneyBlog said...

Crap, never mind.

I see the link.

Thanks Bull&Bear Wise.

1/04/2006 5:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Daniel Gross, had an interesting article 'The Dreaded "Inverted Yield Curve"'

"...56 economists polled by the Wall Street Journal in November believe growth will average 3.2 percent over the course of next year. That's a slowdown from the current rate of growth but nowhere near a recession. ...Of course, economists, like wildebeests, tend to move in herds. And they generally tend to forecast continuation of existing trends."

Weak Labor con't

"NEW YEAR'S RESOLUTIONS"


"THE DIALECTIC CONTINUES"

"CRAM DOWN NATION""...There's mounting evidence that we are, in fact, in a New Economy--high productivity, high growth, low inflation, highly flexible, resistant to recessions, really intense competition, and capital gets treated nicely and rewarded. That's all to the good. What generally gets overlooked is that, while not quite a zero sum game, the New Economy is only made possible because labor is treated shabbilty..."

1/04/2006 5:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great post, educational as well as clearly written.

1/04/2006 6:45 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Any correlation to this and the federal government exceeding the statutory debt limit of $8.18 trillion in Feburary. The Bush admin's Snow, has asked Congress to authorize more borrowing.

I understand our government selling treasuries, but why invent new vehicles like ibonds and tips (created in 1997). We know they would not do anything for our benefit, so what are they saying with this vehicles and what do they get out of it (which seems odd to say since it is our government)...

I did a google news search for the debt, and my first search showed only the People's Daily of China... a sign of who's really watching ;-) I removed a few key words and used "debt limit trillion snow" and found a whole bunch.

1/04/2006 7:12 PM  
Anonymous JWC said...

Scary scary stuff CR. And excellent, as always. I don't know much about monetary policy but is this whole thing you are talking about somehow related to the plan to stop reporting the M3 numbers?

1/04/2006 9:16 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The fed may indeed be using the ‘orderly transition’ argument to justify this irresponsible flood of liquidity. But I’m am more inclined to believe the current chairman’s ego is what is driving this nonsense. Ending his 18-year term with the market indexes at multi-year highs will make good headlines.

My sense is Greenspan will get his headline and the public will be left holding a mountain of debt that MUST BE PAID BACK. And the amount of time it will take for the general public to figure out the mess he put us in ‘will probably not be large.”

1/04/2006 10:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

RE:I don't understand what you are referring to in this post. The Fed operates a discount window which provides temporary liquidity to commercial banks.

This is what the textbooks say and they are wrong. Virtually all open market operations are done thru the Primary Dealers, most of who are not banks but are the Wall Street biggies, and if banks done thru their trading side.

The NY Fed gets on the phone with the dealers every morning and asks what they need. the last few days that put 25 billion in cash on the street. High powered money which goes to their trading desks. Tuesday was a scream. Relentless buying as measured by the TICK indicator. Waves and waves and waves of buying. 60% of all trading now is program trades. Figure it out. Players know to buy every dip. It's guaranteed to be a winner.

Open market operations have nothing to do with the banking system just as the credit market has banks as small players in a world of secruritization and the Wall Street paradigm.

Liquidity is everything.

The Fed has been growing it's portfolio, monetizing, at a better than 7% rate or more for several years. Putting lie to all the talk about tightining. They say one thing but do another. Pre Christmas they are always adding liquidity but it was a surprise they went nuts after. One always suspects maybe they know something we dont, like there is some hidden problem in the system when they go on these flurries, but the problem never seems to appear.

1/05/2006 6:21 AM  
Blogger Elaine Supkis said...

Hi, Cunning Realist!

One of my readers told me about this blog and I cited this article in one of my articles posted today, here it is: Feds Create Extra $60 Billion This Week--Inflated Stocks Shoot Up

So, the government printing presses (all computerized "money", actually) injected $60 billion make believe bucks into the system this week in order to reinflate the stock and housing markets! What happens next? Wouldn't you like to know!

From the Cunning Realist, a MBA finance executive:


Today, the stock market rose sharply after the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its December meeting, and investors interpreted those minutes to indicate that interest rate hikes are nearing an end. But something else also happened today. The Federal Reserve increased its level of temporary liquidity to the highest level since 9/11. For those not familiar with the term, liquidity is essentially money created by the Federal Reserve that acts to support various assets such as stocks, bonds and commodities. Today, that pool of liquidity reached a stunning $60 billion, up from $23 billion in mid-December. To be sure, the Fed boosts liquidity at the end of every year, but size of this increase is extraordinary and far greater than any previous year-end.



As I noted here, there was no really good reason for the stockmarket to shoot up suddenly after New Years. I knew the system was being gamed, of course, since the fundamentals stink like a dead skunk on the highway to hell.
I have many cartoons about all this. Sometimes, it is easier to make a picture to describe the dynamics of our dying monetary system! Keep up the good work here.

Tell the truth! We need it, badly.

1/05/2006 10:26 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The stockmarket is being manipulated, tremendously", this could not come at a worse time too. For the last 20 years the traditional pension has been replaced with the defined contribution plan. Risk is no longer managed in large groups, but by the individual, who get thier information from overhyped, rating grabbing media and conflicted investment professionals who gain whether their clients do or not. Large populations of people have been instructed they must rely on the "stock market" for their quality of retirement. Why would the Republican party of today be setting up so many people to fail?

1/05/2006 3:47 PM  
Blogger Billy Jones said...

Anonymous said...

"The stockmarket is being manipulated, tremendously", this could not come at a worse time too. For the last 20 years the traditional pension has been replaced with the defined contribution plan. Risk is no longer managed in large groups, but by the individual, who get thier information from overhyped, rating grabbing media and conflicted investment professionals who gain whether their clients do or not. Large populations of people have been instructed they must rely on the "stock market" for their quality of retirement. Why would the Republican party of today be setting up so many people to fail?"

Because those who are currently in power can only see their own short term gains in the oil and energy markets. In other words: our current leadership in Washington is inept. George Bush bankrupted every business he ever owned and now he's bankrupting the world.

While those of you who are stock traders work out the best way to remain wealthy during the coming year, the poor among us will only be crushed. Sadly, after events like wars, Katrina, and coal mine diasters, the poor and middle class will have little sympathy for the men who jump from the 100th floor.

1/06/2006 3:31 PM  
Anonymous Tom Faranda said...

I must be older than all you people, because this is all standard "the sky is falling" twaddle. You can all buy gold and foreign stocks, I'll buy U.S. banks, insurance, and brokerage firms, and in three years, we'll see who wins.

1/08/2006 12:32 AM  
Anonymous J Thomas said...

Good point, Tom Faranda. In three years we'll have a new president and a chance for some optimism.

1/08/2006 10:26 AM  
Blogger Puma said...

Tom Faranda,
There is a difference this time. This time we are not just talking about the market, we are talking about some very real physical and geological facts in relation to that market: the possibility that no matter what happens economically or politically, there is no way to get around the fact that our entire modern society is built upon cheap and abundant oil. There are precious few products or jobs that are not somehow touched by it, and that that abundancy and cheap-ness is on an unavoidable decline. Depletion will affect everything around us, and even more so because we insist upon blind faith in our own silly market constructs.

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